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INVESTMENT STRATEGY BRIEF

Does firmer inflation put a soft landing at risk?

We discuss the prospect for a “soft landing” given firming inflation and other key factors influencing the economy and markets going forward.

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The Federal Reserve Holds Steady Even as Inflation Moves Higher

The Federal Reserve (Fed) elected not to hike rates further, even as two key inflation rates, the consumer price index and producer price index, reversed a downward trend and moved higher. We review key inflation reports as well as the results of the September Fed meeting.

Potomac Perspective

While a government shutdown is not expected to impact financial markets, it could still have ramifications, including delaying the release of economic data which could affect the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting if the shutdown lasts long enough. We give a brief overview of what activities might (or might not) be impacted.

Rising Household Wealth Supports Spending as Savings Run Dry

As expected, the Fed opted to keep policy unchanged in a range of 5.25% to 5.50% at its September meeting, the highest level since 2001. Of course, taking a second-round pause, as Chair Powell clearly indicated, does not mean an end to further tightening or that “we have reached the target level.” The pause is a reflection of the progress already made, but “we haven’t gotten to a point of confidence yet.”

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