Client Webinar Replay

An Update on the Banking Sector

View the replay where we discussed the recent bank failures, the federal response, and our views looking forward.

Glimpses of Optimism Fade Investment Strategy Brief

We discuss how firmer inflation in January and some positive economic data are causing early 2023 investor optimism to fade.

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WATCH

Systematic Breakdown vs. Individual Failures, and the Pursuit of Price Stability

From an inflation standpoint, there remains solid support for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise rates in an effort to reinstate price stability. Of course, for monetary officials, policy decisions are never black and white nor are they made in a vacuum without a broader assessment of the economy and market conditions.

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Potomac Perspective

Beyond the immediate impact on the banking industry, the current situation could impact policy and markets in numerous ways. The debt ceiling debate, the future of the Federal Reserve, coordination among global banking regulators, and the 2024 election are all intertwined and affected by events in the banking system.

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Weekly Market Perspectives

March 17, 2023

U.S. equity markets rose last week; developments of the health of the banking sector drove markets as inflation data came in as expected.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

A Chicago man is suing Buffalo Wild Wings, alleging their boneless wings are actually chicken nuggets. Trial of the century folks. Next, can we have a ruling on whether a hotdog is a sandwich?

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

March 20, 2023

Currently, there does not seem to be adequate political will in Congress to temporarily increase deposit insurance. Even if the mood shifts, Congress is unlikely to act until mid-April. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and key lawmakers will speak this week at the American Bankers Association’s Washington Summit, which could be a platform for them to layout their plans.

Article

Three bank failures, and worries of more: What happened? Where are we now? What about the future?

March 17, 2023

We review recent bank failures, the federal response, implications for Federal Reserve policy and the economy, the market response, and our views looking forward.

Article

Potomac Perspective

March 13, 2022

Government intervention in the banking system may come with a political price. In the wake of regulatory actions to guarantee all deposits at two failed banks and to create a new bank borrowing facility, investors and banks should expect increased supervision followed by regulatory changes.

Article

Strong Job Growth in February, Wages and Jobless Rate Cool

March 13, 2023

The latest rise in employment was a bit of a mixed bag with nonfarm payrolls rising 311,000, topping estimates, as the jobless rate and monthly wage growth indicated at least some indications of cooling. Of course, with still more than 10 million job vacancies, and millions of fewer Americans seeking employment, the unemployment rate remains at a five-decade low.

Video

The Consumer Remains Strong: Good News Is Bad News…Again

March 10, 2023

We share an update on the strong job market, improving consumer confidence, and consumer activity and their possible influence on Federal Reserve policy.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Hershey announced two vegan-friendly additions to their line – vegan Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups made with oat chocolate and an oat chocolate bar with sea salt and almonds.

Newsletter

Favorite 15

March 9 , 2023

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

Potomac Perspective

March 7, 2023

A busy week is on tap for policy events. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress as numerous financial regulators speak on digital assets. On Thursday The White House released President Biden's fiscal year 2024 budget.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$21 billion: The amount that Americans collectively have in unspent gift cards. Almost two-thirds of consumers have at least one unspent gift card tucked away somewhere.

Newsletter

Myriad of Inflation Indicators Offer Varying Assessments of Improvement

March 6, 2023

Inflation appears to be cooling in the United States, but the level of progress varies based on the inflation measure used. At this point, with the Fed hyper focused on taming inflation with the health and soundness of the broader economy at stake, it matters more than ever exactly which measure is used to properly gauge inflation.

Article

Will Shelter Inflation Cool in 2023? Shelter Plays a Key Role

March 3, 2022

We unpack the Consumer Price Index shelter component to learn why it is sticky and where it might be headed from here.

Article

Potomac Perspectives

March 1, 2023

The House of Representatives will consider legislation to overturn a Department of Labor rule regarding environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing. Regarding the debt ceiling, it appears that budget options are limited. These fiscal constraints create political risk for Speaker McCarthy.

Article

February in Review

March 1 2022

U.S. equity markets fell in February as inflation data raised concerns the pressures may persist, possibly causing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to push rates higher and keep them elevated longer than previously expected.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Toyota and Honda both agreed to their biggest wage hikes in decades. Toyota’s workers’ union didn’t disclose a percentage increase, but Honda will raise pay by 5%.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspectives

February 28, 2023

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear the appeal of a case about how the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is funded. The headlines should be seen as a positive for the consumer finance sector but investors should not overreact.

Article

Recent Inflation Readings Firm Up: Glimpses of Optimism Fade

February 23, 2023

We share an update on investor reaction to the Federal Reserve meeting, firmer-than-expected January inflation reports, and an upward revision in fourth-quarter inflation readings compared to those previously reported.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

113.1 million: The amount of viewers who tuned in to the Super Bowl, making it the third most-watched TV program ever.

Newsletter

Federal Reserve Speak Broadly Affirms Expectations for Higher Rates with Varying Assessments of Pathway

February 14, 2023

The Federal Reserve remains committed to raising rates further in order to tame inflation. The latest slew of stronger-than-expected data, however, suggests that threshold may be higher than previously expected.

Article

Potomac Perspectives

February 14, 2023

Pop go the chances of big tariff relief. The recent sightings and takedowns of Chinese surveillance balloons over the U.S. will make the already long odds of repealing the 2018 tariffs on Chinese imports even longer. Also, in this note, we take an early look at the 2024 presidential race.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

AMC Theatres, the world’s largest cinema chain, announced plans to vary ticket prices based on seat location. The seats in front, where your ears get blasted by speakers, will be cheaper than the middle seats.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspectives

February 9, 2023

Among the proposals floated in the State of the Union address were taxing unrealized capital gains and increasing the stock buyback tax.

Article

Employment remains strong. Will the Federal Reserve pause rate hikes? Is a soft landing possible?

February 10, 2023

We unpack a positive employment report, a possible Federal Reserve (Fed) pause, and the resulting possibility of a soft landing.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$4,438-$35,841: The price range for Super Bowl LVII tickets on ticket resale platforms such as StubHub and Ticketmaster.

Newsletter

Policy Decision Shifts to Historically Normal Pace

February 6, 2023

A modest improvement in inflation may be enough to convince policymakers a slower pace of ascent is appropriate, but uncomfortably high price pressures are making it clear more work needs to be done.

Article

Potomac Perspectives

February 6, 2023

President Joe Biden’s State of the Union could be seen as a soft opening for his 2024 reelection campaign. He is likely to take a victory lap on his 2022 legislative wins, promote climate initiatives, and highlight consumer-related sectors (tech and banking) to argue that his administration is helping consumers.

Article

Favorite 15

February 3, 2023

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

January in Review

February 1, 2023

The S&P 500 started 2023 on a high note, ending January up as investors grew more confident in the prospect of a “soft landing.”

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Large companies’ layoffs have dominated headlines recently, but small and mid-size businesses continue to hire. That’s problematic for markets: A strong labor market may force the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates.

Newsletter

Outlook 2023 Spotlight No. 4: Geopolitical Risk Dashboard: Tensions Rising

January 31, 2023

We shine the final outlook spotlight on some of the global trends and risks discussed in the article Geopolitical Risks Dashboard: Tensions Rising.

Article

Consumer Spending Props Up Growth for Now, but Weakness Lies Ahead

January 30, 2023

In the second half of last year, consumers were able to maintain and, in some cases, increase spending as they were still flush with pandemic savings and fiscal support. Now, as savings dwindle, the weight of rising prices is undermining real wage growth.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 27, 2023

Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Lael Brainard is reportedly in the running for a key White House economic policy job. This move could have some short-term implications for monetary and bank regulatory policy.

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives: Q1 2023

January 26, 2023

We review the prior quarters capital market returns and economic developments in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

After "inflation" wore out our keyboards last year, it's refreshing to finally type deflation. Yep, you read that right: December actually saw some year-over-year price drops.

Newsletter

Headline Inflation Improvement Masks Underlying Risks

January 23, 2023

The latest inflation data shows headline prices continuing to cool. Looking beyond the headline, some components of inflation remain worrisome as they continue a relentless move higher.

Article

Investment Strategy Brief: Outlook 2023: Finding Balance

January 2023

We dive a little deeper into our Outlook 2023: Finding Balance, including our views on the economy and markets in 2023.

Video

Q1 Allocation Insights

Q1 2023

See how the Stifel CIO Office is positioning portfolios in the current volatile environment.

Article

Outlook 2023 Spotlight No. 3: Scenarios and Signposts

January 20, 2023

We have a base case view that is modestly positive, but as has been our practice. That’s why we’ve asked ourselves the question: What if we are wrong?

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

At last?! Inflation eased in December as consumer prices fell, largely due to lower energy prices.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

January 18, 2023

As Congress approaches the X-date by which it needs to raise the debt limit to avoid a default, some in Congress are floating proposals on how to circumvent the House Republican leadership and pass a clean increase in the debt ceiling.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

It’s likely to be more of the same as we start 2023, but there are potentially better times on the horizon.

Newsletter

Outlook 2023 Spotlight No. 2: Economic and Market Outlook

January 13, 2023

We share a summary of our economic and market outlook for the coming year.

Article

Outlook 2023: Finding Balance - Webinar Replay

January 11, 2023

Michael O’Keeffe, Stifel Chief Investment Officer, and Brian Gardner, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist, discussed our view on the paths for inflation, monetary policy, and Washington policy and what we expect for the economy and markets in 2023.

Video

Potomac Perspective

January 11, 2023

Following the election of Representative Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, we provide a update on the year ahead. In our current base case, the prospects for a government shutdown in October are high.

Article

Outlook 2023 Spotlight No. 1: A Brief Summary

January 6, 2023

Don’t have time to read the full Outlook? Check out the two-page Sight|Lines report where we summarize the articles and main takeaways from our Outlook 2023.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 5, 2023

After multiple rounds of voting on Tuesday and Wednesday, the House failed to elect a Speaker. This process could play out for several days. We look at some possible scenarios and potential implications for financial markets.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 3, 2023

The New Year ushers in a new Congress, which could start in chaos as House Republicans struggle to elect a Speaker. This could lead to some market volatility if investors lose confidence in the government’s ability to conduct business. The chaotic start to 2023 also sets up the narrative for the rest of the year – gridlock.

Article

Favorite 15

January 3, 2023

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

2023 Outlook: Finding Balance

January 2023

Watch the video summary where Michael O'Keeffe, Stifel Chief Investment Officer, provides our view on the paths for inflation, monetary policy, Washington policy, the economy, and markets.

Video

Outlook 2023: Finding Balance

January 2023

We provide our view on the paths for inflation, monetary policy, Washington policy, the economy, and markets.

Article

December In Review

January 1, 2023

The S&P 500 ended the year on a down note, experiencing its largest decline since 2008. The Federal Reserve acknowledged softer inflation but noted that "substantially more evidence" that inflation is cooling is needed.

Article

2023 Outlook — The Inflation Clock Keeps Ticking: Stubbornly Elevated Prices Push Rates Higher for Longer With a Modest Recession

December 20, 2022

The unevenness in the data, not to mention the uncertainty in the outlook for the economy and policy, has left a number of questions unanswered as the new year approaches. As such, investors and consumers alike continue to wonder: Is the U.S. nearing a recession?

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

425: The cumulative amount of basis points the Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised rates in 2022, the most since 1980.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

December 20, 2022

The omnibus appropriations bill has been released. Regarding policy riders, the SECURE Act 2.0 was included in the bill, but the SAFE Banking Act and a tax extenders bill failed to make the cut. Odds favor the bill passing Congress despite some conservative opposition.

Article

Signs of Balance: Part 2

December 21, 2022

We continue to see a few signs of balance in December, important considerations as we develop our outlook for 2023.

Video

Shaping Our 2023 Outlook: Cooling consumer inflation and a Federal Reserve rate hike in line with expectations

December 16, 2022

We review the results of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy action and Summary of Economic Projections as well as the consumer price index (CPI) report for November and how they will influence our outlook for 2023.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 15, 2022

Key negotiators have agreed to a framework for an omnibus appropriations bill. The text won’t be ready for several days, but this note looks at what might be in the bill. Also, the note looks at possible replacements at Treasury if Secretary Janet Yellen leaves and what Senator Krysten Sinema’s decision to become an independent means to the 2023 agenda.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

The labor market has been resilient this year, keeping the economy out of a recession and allowing the Federal Reserve to aggressively tighten monetary policy. So what's keeping the jobs party going? Well, beneath the surface there may be a structural shift taking place in the workforce.

Newsletter

Hints of Weakness in Hiring Support a Smaller Hike; Strong Wages Suggest a Higher Level of Policy

December 13, 2022

The latest employment report indicates the U.S. labor market remains stubbornly tight. Of course, some metrics show the labor market may be less robust than headline figures suggest.

Article

Shaping Our 2023 Outlook: Getting Ready for the December Fed Meeting

December 9, 2022

We provide an update on topics that will likely influence the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 7, 2022

The National Defense Authorization Act text was released on Tuesday night, and the bill excludes the SAFE Banking Act and Senator Richard Durbin’s credit card bill. Supporters of both bills will try to add them to a year-end spending bill, but odds are against them.

Article

Getting Into the Zone: Who’s Taylor and Why Is He Setting Rates?

December 2, 2022

The latest flurry of Federal Reserve speak ahead of the final Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year highlights a growing divide among officials regarding the appropriate pathway for policy.

Article

Looking Forward to 2023: Insights as We Prepare Our 2023 Outlook

December 2, 2022

We share some insights from the work we are doing as we develop our 2023 Outlook.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 7, 2022

Last week, a key Federal Reserve (Fed) official gave a speech on bank capital requirements. Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr did not offer details on what changes will be made to capital rules, but he offered some hints. This note reviews his comments and opines on how banks and investors should think about the process and the politics of bank capital regulations.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

With railroad unions threatening a strike on December 9, Congress stepped in to head off a potential supply chain disaster. The Railway Labor Act grants Congress the authority to intervene in railroad disputes that threaten to disrupt the economy – something the legislature has done 18 times since 1960.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

December 6, 2022

The note looks at the three likely scenarios – punting an omnibus bill to 2023, passing an omnibus bill before year-end, or passing a year-long continuing resolution.

Article

Favorite 15

December 1, 2022

They key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

November In Review

December 1, 2022

U.S. equity markets rose during the volatile month. The Federal Reserve hiked rates by another 75 basis points, inflation data was below economist expectations, and the midterm elections resulted in a divided government.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

675 million pounds: The amount of turkey estimated to be eaten on Thanksgiving. That's roughly 42 million birds assuming they each weigh 16 pounds.

Newsletter

Signs of Balance: Investment Strategy Brief

November 21, 2022

We’ve been talking about finding balance and the prospect of reduced market volatility. This month we review midterm results, improving inflation, and geopolitical progress, all signs of possible balance ahead.

Video

A Slower Pace of Still Rising Prices, Underscores Need for Additional Federal Reserve Action

November 21, 2022

The latest read on prices suggests the worst of the cost pressures may be behind us. Of course, with inflation still near a four-decade high, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to face a fierce challenge to reinstate price stability. For some Fed officials, the recent improvement in inflation is enough to signal the need for a more benign policy pathway. For other members, the battle has just begun with arguably minimal – albeit welcomed – movement in the right direction.

Article

Potomac Perspective

November 30, 2022

This week’s note looks at the agenda for the lame duck session, including scenarios for a year-end spending bill and the National Defense Authorization Act. Legislation that could be added to either bill includes the SAFE Banking Act, SECURE Act 2.0, pay-go fixes, a credit card payments bill, disaster relief, and other items.

Article

Finding Some Balance Abroad: U.S. – China Relations and Ukraine War

November 18, 2022,

We provide a brief update on some areas of geopolitics that have risked moving in the wrong direction and creating imbalances here and abroad.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

High inflation and slowing economy. Check. Low presidential approval rating. Check. History favoring the minority party. Check. The conditions were right, but the "red wave" of Republicans sweeping control of Congress in the 2022 midterms never materialized. So what now?

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

November 15, 2022

The GOP is likely to nominate Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-California) as the party’s nominee for House Speaker, but he will probably fail to gain today the 218 votes that will ultimately be needed to win the Speakership in January.

Article

Q4 Allocation Insights

Q4 2022

See how the Stifel CIO Office is positioning portfolios in the current volatile environment.

Article

Potomac Perspective

November 14, 2022

The ultimate outcome of the elections have yet to be called, but Republicans have a clearer path than Democrats to the House majority. The situation is reversed in the Senate where Democrats have the inside track.

Article

Elections and Inflation: Uncertainty Persists Along the Road to Balance

November 11, 2022

We provide a brief update on finding balance through the rest of the year and into 2023. The control of Congress is not yet known, but a dividend government appears likely. October’s consumer price index (CPI) results provide some of the evidence the Federal Reserve is seeking for cooling inflation.

Article

2022 Midterm Election Part 2 Replay

November 9, 2022

In the second session in our two-part webinar series, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner recapped the election results and discussed what they mean for future legislation and other areas of focus in DC.

Video

Potomac Perspective

November 9, 2022

As of this writing, the final outcome of the 2022 midterm elections is still not known, but the national results have been shocking as a predicted red wave failed to materialize.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates another 0.75% to a target range of 3.75%-4% as the fight with inflation continues. The main question is "Are we there yet?" It seems not. Chair Jerome Powell said that it's too early to think about pausing.

Newsletter

Acknowledging Lag Effect, the Fed Indicates More Work to be Done and Ultimately Higher Rates

November 7, 2021

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) opted to raise rates an additional 75 basis points (bps) last week. The November statement focused on the lag in which policy impacts the real economy, suggesting a possible “pivot” to smaller-sized rate hikes may soon be deemed appropriate, even as early as next month.

Article

Favorite 15

November 4, 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

The Federal Reserve Hikes 0.75% Again: The Timing of a Policy Shift Remains Elusive

November 4, 2022

We share the results of the November Fed meeting, how the third quarter GDP report played a role, and what these mean for investors trying to find balance on the topics of inflation and recession.

Article

Potomac Perspective

November 4, 2022

A host of factors clearly signal a Republican takeover of the House. Although the battle for the Senate is closer, Republican candidates in key races have momentum and the GOP is well positioned to win the majority in the Senate. This note takes a final pre-election look at what to expect the election outcome(s) could mean for policy and markets.

Article

October in Review

November 4, 2022

U.S. equites rose during the month, having one of the best Octobers on record despite higher prices and some signs of a slowing economy.

Article

Inflation, Inflation, Inflation… And Recession

November 2, 2022

With inflation at a four-decade high, an economy that is treading water, and the Fed assessing the size of its next rate hike, are we in a recession today?

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

4.5%: The percent of Americans households without a bank account in 2021 as reported by the FDIC, a record low since the survey started in 2009.

Newsletter

Investors Seek Relief: Finding Balance

October 28, 2022

We may be finding balance in the coming months in issues that have challenged markets this year.

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives: Q4 2022

October 27, 2022

We review the prior quarter’s capital market returns and economic developments in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 26, 2022

Republican prospects continue to improve, as elections are a week away. Numerous polls indicate voters are prioritizing issues that play to republican strengths, and deemphasize issues that could benefit Democrats.

Article

Finding Balance

October 24, 2022

Imbalances in the global economy have led to elevated inflation and a bear market in equities. This month we examine how we may find balance in some areas, perhaps reducing volatility.

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Video

Stubbornly Elevated Prices Likely to Further Federal Reserve Action

October 24, 2022

With inflation broadly and stubbornly elevated, and core prices pushing to a fresh cycle peak in September, the Federal Reserve has highlighted an ongoing and increased willingness to raise rates beyond earlier forecasts.

Article

Finding Balance: The 2022 Midterms Approach

October 21, 2022

We summarize some of the key learnings from our recent webinar with Brian Gardner, Stifel’s Chief Washington Policy Strategist, on the upcoming midterm elections.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 21, 2022

A federal appeals court ruled that the funding mechanism for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is unconstitutional. If upheld, the decision could have implications for the consumer financial sector, especially nonbanks, as it would make congressional oversight of the CFPB easier.

Article

Client Webinar Series Part 1 Replay

October 18, 2022

Watch Stifel’s Chief Washington Strategist, Brian Gardner, and Chief Investment Officer, Michael O’Keeffe, discuss the potential outcomes of the upcoming midterm elections.

Video

Weakness in Housing Potentially Mitigated by Lingering Undersupply

October 17, 2022

Higher mortgage rates and elevated costs along with negative real income growth have dampened purchasing activity some. However, a multiyear deficit in the housing supply and elevated demand are keeping the cost of homeownership historically elevated.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 14, 2022

The Consumer Price Index report could create headwinds for Democrats and tailwinds for Republicans heading into next month’s elections. We look into the report, discuss how midterm elections may impact proposals from businesses to increase legal immigration, and examine the implications of a lame duck session of Congress.

Article

September Jobs Report Keeps Federal Reserve on Pace for 75 bps Come November

October 7, 2022

This week, we take a closer look at the state of the U.S. labor market, and what it means for the Fed’s November policy decision.

Video

A Hawkish Federal Reserve Means Lower Earnings Growth

October 7, 2022

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy is intended to slow the economy, dampen demand, and cool inflation. We assess the related weakening earnings growth and the impact on stock market performance.

Article

Favorite 15

October 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

Overseas Volatility Leaves Fed on Aggressive Pathway with Eyes Wide Open

October 4, 2022

Elevated prices amid slowing growth is currently a shared condition globally. While central banks have moved to higher rate policies, the reactions from fiscal policy leaders have varied from country to country.

Article

September in Review

October 2022

U.S. equites fell during the month as inflation came in higher than expected and the Fed raised the funds rate by 75 basis points for the third consecutive meeting.

Article

The Federal Reserve’s Dual Mandate is Askew: When Can the Fed Ease?

September 30, 2022

We present how the Federal Reserve can ease monetary policy, which would likely lower interest rates and trigger a “relief rally” in equities.

Article

Potomac Perspective

September 27, 2022

Congress is tying up some loose ends as it prepares to pass a temporary spending bill that will keep the government open into December. A government shutdown is highly unlikely.

Article

When can the Fed shift policy?

September 27, 2022

The Fed’s aggressive policy has driven markets lower. This month we examine what the Fed wants to see before it shifts monetary policy.

Video

An Overly Optimistic Outlook for Growth and Inflation as the Fed Continues to Hike

September 26, 2022

Is the Fed overstating the need for further rate hikes to quell inflation, or is it underestimating the hardship additional increases will have?

Article

Federal Open Market Committee Update: Higher Rates for Longer

September 23, 2022

We review the results of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, some implications for future inflation, and market reaction.

Article

A Tale of Two Inflation Pictures

September 19, 2022

Economists typically need two hands when weighing the significance of contrasting data, and this week’s inflation reports are no exception.

Article

Potomac Perspective

September 19, 2022

For the next few weeks, the main debate in Washington is whether an energy permitting deal can be added to the spending bill. It’s possible, but there are reasons to be skeptical.

Brochure

No Cooling Trend For Inflation

September 16, 2022

We share an update on inflation and other key data points and how they may be influencing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision next week.

Article

Q3 Allocation Insights

Q3 2022

See how the Stifel CIO Office is positioning portfolios in the current volatile environment.

Article

Potomac Perspective

September 13, 2022

Recently, it has seemed that the New York Yankees and congressional Republicans were on similar paths – insurmountable leads that have dwindled. We look at some potential policy ramifications following the election and at the political outlook for November.

Article

Powell Rhetoric Overshadows Complexities to Inflation Fight

September 13, 2022

Elevated inflation will challenge the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools.

Article

Navigating the Rest of 2022: Get Ready for More Volatility

September 9, 2022

We discuss some of our areas of focus as we navigate the remainder of 2022, including what history teaches us about volatility patterns throughout the year.

Article

Potomac Perspective

September 9, 2022

As Congress returns from its summer break, it must pass a spending bill before the end of September which also might (or might not) raise the debt ceiling and streamline the process for obtaining permits for energy projects.

Article

Solid Job Growth and Stagnant Wages in August Could Soften Outlook for the Federal Reserve

September 5, 2022

We take a closer look at the state of the U.S. labor market, and what it means for the Fed’s upcoming policy decision.

Video

Favorite 15

September, 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

August in Review

September, 2022

U.S. equites fell during the month on comments from Federal Reserve officials and mixed economic data, while second-quarter earnings season came to a close.

Article

Recession, in Housing?

August 29, 2022

Home sales are sluggish, yet prices are extremely elevated. While some measures of housing activity – and the broader economy – are signaling a significant downturn, and even the possibility of a recession, others indicate there are still opportunities in the market.

Article

More U.S. - China Tensions: What might happen with Taiwan?

August 26, 2022

We focus on increasing U.S.-China tensions and address the question: What might happen with Taiwan.

Article

Lower Gasoline Prices Lifted Spending Less than Expected

August 23, 2022

Despite relief at the pump, rising costs elsewhere continue to keep spending modest. Consumers are still shopping, but the broad-based increase in inflation has the average American adjusting their spending behaviors, buying fewer and less expensive goods.

Article

Potomac Perspective

August 19, 2022

With the Inflation Reduction Act now signed into law, we look into three items that may be considered in the bill’s wake: electric vehicle content rules, a cap on insulin prices, and a possible side energy deal.

Article

A Slower Pace of Still-Elevated Price Pressures Complicates Outlook for Policy

August 15, 2022

While energy costs cooled somewhat in July, dragging down the headline read, other price categories continued a relentless climb higher, complicating the outlook for costs and policy.

Article

Exploring the Data: Inflation May Be Cooling

August 12, 2022

We unpack the recent inflation data to better understand inflation today and where it might be headed from here.

Article

Strong Job Growth in July Has Investors Pricing in a More Hawkish Rate Path

August 5, 2022

We take a closer look at the state of the U.S. labor market, the Fed's upcoming policy decision, and the outlook for the recovery.

Video

Exploring the Data: Supply Chain Pressures May Be Easing

August 5, 2022

We take a deep dive into the data to understand where we are on the supply side of the inflation equation, with a particular focus on signals of whether or not supply chain pressures are easing.

Article

Potomac Perspective

August 4, 2022

The Senate is moving ahead on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, some Democrats are pushing to change the bill. In the end, their efforts will probably have only limited success.

Article

Favorite 15

August, 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

Federal Reserve to Potentially Soften Pathway as Recession Lurks

August 1, 2022

With inflation still too high and the economy beginning to show signs of waning momentum, what is the future pathway for Fed policy?

Article

July in Review

August, 2022

The S&P 500 rose in July as second quarter earnings season was in full swing, and, as expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates 75 basis points for the second month in a row.

Article

Federal Reserve Hikes Rates 75 Basis Points in July as Expected

August 1, 2022

We discuss the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike, the outlook for future rate hikes, and other key economic developments.

Video

Are we in a recession?

July 29, 2022

We touch briefly on second quarter earnings, report on the Federal Reserve’s July policy action, share some details on second quarter GDP, and offer a view on volatility and markets looking forward.

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Potomac Perspective

July 29, 2022

Senator Manchin surprised Washington by announcing a deal on a reconciliation bill that is broader than expected. The CHIPS Act was passed in the House and is now headed to President Biden’s desk for his signature.

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Keeping Composure Despite Challenges: Investment Strategy Brief

July 25, 2022

2022 has been a tough year for investors. As we pass midyear, we take a look back at what happened and why, and we then share reasons investors should keep composure despite these challenges and be more optimistic looking forward.

Video

Oil Prices Rise After President Biden Visits the Middle East

July 25, 2022

We take a closer look at energy markets and other key economic developments.

Video

A slowdown without a technical recession?

July 25, 2022

Amid a slowdown in production and wild volatility in financial sectors, many market participants fear a recession is lurking around the corner or worse, is already upon us.

Article

Second Half 2022 and Beyond: Part 2: Reasons for a Positive Outlook

July 22, 2022

We share our views on the slowing economy, recession, earnings, and the reasons to have a positive outlook going forward.

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Potomac Perspective

July 21, 2022

A scaled down USICA/CHIPS Act is moving forward in the Senate but still faces a few hurdles. Odds are in the bill’s favor, but it’s no slam dunk that the bill will be signed into law.

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Weekly Market Perspectives

July 18, 2022

Hotter-than-expected inflation and earnings reports from some financial companies led to a risk-off mood leading markets to end the week down.

Article

Dollar Strength Could Aid in Inflation Battle but Limit Export Growth

July 18, 2022

As the Federal Reserve continues along a more aggressive pathway to stem inflation, a rapidly appreciating U.S. dollar is also causing complications in international currency markets.

Article

Potomac Perspective

July 14, 2022

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down an EPA rule related to coal, showing its willingness to rein in federal agencies, which could impact every economic sector. We also explore the possibility of a Build Back Better 2.0 and a China competition bill.

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Quarterly Market Perspectives: Q3 2022

July 2022

We review the prior quarter’s capital market returns and economic developments in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

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Second Half 2022 and Beyond: Part 1: How did we get here?

July 15, 2022

As we pass midyear, we believe it helpful to look back and objectively assess how these balancing acts have played out so far, before we look forward to the remainder of the year and beyond. We set the stage for this look forward to the second half of 2022 and beyond by first sharing Part 1: How did we get here?

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Market Rates Are Falling Some: Positive relief or trouble ahead?

July 8, 2022

We unpack the relationship between market rates and anticipated Federal Reserve action in the first half of 2022, review forecasts for the next 18 months, and then answer the question: Is this positive relief, or is there trouble ahead?

Article

An Update on the Banking Sector

Glimpses of Optimism Fade Investment Strategy Brief

Systematic Breakdown vs. Individual Failures, and the Pursuit of Price Stability

Potomac Perspective

More Insights

Weekly Market Perspectives

Stifel Bits

Potomac Perspective

Three bank failures, and worries of more: What happened? Where are we now? What about the future?

Potomac Perspective

Strong Job Growth in February, Wages and Jobless Rate Cool

The Consumer Remains Strong: Good News Is Bad News…Again

Stifel Bits

Favorite 15

Potomac Perspective

Stifel Bits

Myriad of Inflation Indicators Offer Varying Assessments of Improvement

Will Shelter Inflation Cool in 2023? Shelter Plays a Key Role

Potomac Perspectives

February in Review

Stifel Bits

Potomac Perspectives

Recent Inflation Readings Firm Up: Glimpses of Optimism Fade

Stifel Bits

Federal Reserve Speak Broadly Affirms Expectations for Higher Rates with Varying Assessments of Pathway

Potomac Perspectives

Stifel Bits

Potomac Perspectives

Employment remains strong. Will the Federal Reserve pause rate hikes? Is a soft landing possible?

Stifel Bits

Policy Decision Shifts to Historically Normal Pace

Potomac Perspectives

Favorite 15

January in Review

Stifel Bits

Outlook 2023 Spotlight No. 4: Geopolitical Risk Dashboard: Tensions Rising

Consumer Spending Props Up Growth for Now, but Weakness Lies Ahead

Potomac Perspective

Quarterly Market Perspectives: Q1 2023

Stifel Bits

Headline Inflation Improvement Masks Underlying Risks

Investment Strategy Brief: Outlook 2023: Finding Balance

Q1 Allocation Insights

Outlook 2023 Spotlight No. 3: Scenarios and Signposts

Stifel Bits

Potomac Perspective

Stifel Bits

Outlook 2023 Spotlight No. 2: Economic and Market Outlook

Outlook 2023: Finding Balance - Webinar Replay

Potomac Perspective

Outlook 2023 Spotlight No. 1: A Brief Summary

Potomac Perspective

Potomac Perspective

Favorite 15

2023 Outlook: Finding Balance

Outlook 2023: Finding Balance

December In Review

2023 Outlook — The Inflation Clock Keeps Ticking: Stubbornly Elevated Prices Push Rates Higher for Longer With a Modest Recession

Stifel Bits

Potomac Perspective

Signs of Balance: Part 2

Shaping Our 2023 Outlook: Cooling consumer inflation and a Federal Reserve rate hike in line with expectations

Potomac Perspective

Stifel Bits

Hints of Weakness in Hiring Support a Smaller Hike; Strong Wages Suggest a Higher Level of Policy

Shaping Our 2023 Outlook: Getting Ready for the December Fed Meeting

Potomac Perspective

Getting Into the Zone: Who’s Taylor and Why Is He Setting Rates?

Looking Forward to 2023: Insights as We Prepare Our 2023 Outlook

Potomac Perspective

Stifel Bits

Potomac Perspective

Favorite 15

November In Review

Stifel Bits

Signs of Balance: Investment Strategy Brief

A Slower Pace of Still Rising Prices, Underscores Need for Additional Federal Reserve Action

Potomac Perspective

Finding Some Balance Abroad: U.S. – China Relations and Ukraine War

Stifel Bits