MARKET SIGHT | LINES

Our Second Half Outlook: Animal Spirits Are Proving to Be a Driving Force in 2025

Despite a volatile first half, the S&P 500 surged ahead, up 6.2% and surpassing our 6,200 year-end target. What’s next for markets in 2H 2025? We provide an outlook for the second half of 2025, considering geopolitics, government policy, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, economic growth, and company earnings.

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Middle East War: Risks of Further Escalation, Higher Inflation, and Economic/Market Fallout

Market Slight|Lines

My team and I regularly update our Geopolitical Risk Dashboard. One such risk, Middle East War, describes a prolonged Israel/Iran conflict that could escalate to involve the U.S. and may now be unfolding.

Resilient Markets Amidst Growing Tensions

Investment Strategy Brief

We review how the economy and markets appear resilient despite growing geopolitical tensions/hotspots and still evolving U.S. policies.

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Labor Market Firm and Inflation Cooling: When Will the Federal Reserve Cut Rates?

Market Sight|Lines

We share an update on the labor market and inflation – the two pillars of the Fed’s dual mandate – and how these results may influence the Fed policy decision next week and interest rates going forward.

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