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Market Sight|Lines

Are we in a recession?

We touch briefly on second quarter earnings, report on the Federal Reserve’s July policy action, share some details on second quarter GDP, and offer a view on volatility and markets looking forward.

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Keeping Composure Despite Challenges: Investment Strategy Brief

2022 has been a tough year for investors. As we pass midyear, we take a look back at what happened and why, and we then share reasons investors should keep composure despite these challenges and be more optimistic looking forward.

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WATCH

Potomac Perspective

Senator Manchin surprised Washington by announcing a deal on a reconciliation bill that is broader than expected. The CHIPS Act was passed in the House and is now headed to President Biden’s desk for his signature. 

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Federal Reserve to Potentially Soften Pathway as Recession Lurks

With inflation still too high and the economy beginning to show signs of waning momentum, what is the future pathway for Fed policy?

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More Insights

Weekly Market Perspectives

August 1, 2022

It was an important week for investors with more than 150 companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and the second-quarter GDP reading.

Article

July in Review

August, 2022

The S&P 500 rose in July as second quarter earnings season was in full swing, and, as expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates 75 basis points for the second month in a row.

Article

Federal Reserve Hikes Rates 75 Basis Points in July as Expected

August 1, 2022

We discuss the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike, the outlook for future rate hikes, and other key economic developments.

Video

Oil Prices Rise after President Biden Visits the Middle East

July 25, 2022

We take a closer look at energy markets and other key economic developments.

Video

A slowdown Without a Technical Recession?

July 25, 2022

Amid a slowdown in production and wild volatility in financial sectors, many market participants fear a recession is lurking around the corner or worse, is already upon us.

Article

Second Half 2022 and Beyond: Part 2: Reasons for a Positive Outlook

July 22, 2022

We share our views on the slowing economy, recession, earnings, and the reasons to have a positive outlook going forward.  

Article

Potomac Perspective

July 21, 2022

A scaled down USICA/CHIPS Act is moving forward in the Senate but still faces a few hurdles. Odds are in the bill’s favor, but it’s no slam dunk that the bill will be signed into law.

Article

Weekly Market Perspectives

July 18, 2022

Hotter-than-expected inflation and earnings reports from some financial companies led to a risk-off mood leading markets to end the week down.

Article

Dollar Strength Could Aid in Inflation Battle but Limit Export Growth

July 18, 2022

As the Federal Reserve continues along a more aggressive pathway to stem inflation, a rapidly appreciating U.S. dollar is also causing complications in international currency markets.

Article

Potomac Perspective

July 14, 2022

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down an EPA rule related to coal, showing its willingness to rein in federal agencies, which could impact every economic sector. We also explore the possibility of a Build Back Better 2.0 and a China competition bill.

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives: Q3 2022

July 2022

We review the prior quarter’s capital market returns and economic developments in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes. 

Article

Second Half 2022 and Beyond: Part 1: How Did We Get Here?

July 15, 2022

As we pass midyear, we believe it helpful to look back and objectively assess how these balancing acts have played out so far, before we look forward to the remainder of the year and beyond. We set the stage for this look forward to the second half of 2022 and beyond by first sharing Part 1: How did we get here?

Article

Market Rates Are Falling Some: Positive Relief or Trouble Ahead?

July 8, 2022

We unpack the relationship between market rates and anticipated Federal Reserve action in the first half of 2022, review forecasts for the next 18 months, and then answer the question: Is this positive relief, or is there trouble ahead?

Article

Still Solid Job Growth in June Keeps Fed on Aggressive Rate Path

July 11, 2022

We take a closer look at the state of the U.S. labor market, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, and the outlook for the recovery.

Video

June in Review

July 2022

Volatility remained high in June as the S&P 500 entered a bear market. The Federal Reserve surprised markets with a 75-basis-point rate hike as consumer confidence fell.

Article

Long-term Investor? Time in Instead of Timing the Market

July 1, 2022

We review the idea that an investor is much more likely to be better off over the long term when being focused on time in rather than timing the market.

Article

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Potomac Perspective

June 30, 2022

With just over four months until midterm elections, learn about key races in the House and Senate as November approaches.

Article

Supply-Side Price Pressures to Determine Depth and Duration of Downturn

June 24, 2022

What does the latest Fed policy decision mean for the economy? Will the economy fall into recession? If so, how deep and how long will the contraction be?

Article

Learnings From Economic Theory: Inflation Has Gone Vertical!

June 24, 2022

We review the concept of supply-demand in economic theory, how some topics we’ve been talking about – higher demand and supply constraints – are causing inflation to go vertical, and what that might mean for future inflation.

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image of U.S. Capitol Building

Potomac Perspective

June 23, 2022

Learn more about the proposed gas tax holiday and part of the Secure Act 2.0, which addresses retirement savings and required minimum distributions.

Article

Storms or Clear Skies Ahead?

June 17, 2022

We discuss drivers of market performance, reviewing a recent inflation report, learnings from the Fed’s June meeting, and our views going forward.

Article

Raising Rates 75 bps

June 17, 2022

We take a closer look at the June Federal Open Market Committee rate decision, the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s projections for growth and inflation, and the questions for the economy and the outlook the Committee left unanswered.

Video

Market Volatility: More Storms, Clear Skies, or Both?

June 17, 2022

This environment, more than others, is uncertain. In such a setting, we find it helpful to define and evaluate scenarios based on what might happen, how likely it is to happen, and the corresponding economic and market implications.

Article

Policy Officials Acknowledge Inflation Without a Plan to Address Higher Costs

June 13, 2022

We takes a closer look at the latest inflation reading and other key economic developments.

Video

Connecting the Dots: Drivers of Market Performance

June 10, 2022

We take a step back to discuss how a variety of topics are connected and ultimately drive economic and market performance.

Article

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Potomac Perspective

June 10, 2022

We discuss ongoing debates in Congress over economic policies including Build Back Better, cryptocurrency regulation, and bank merger review guidelines.

Article

Favorite 15

June 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

Payroll Momentum Wanes in May

June 3, 2022

Stifel’s Chief Economist, Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., takes a closer look at the U.S. labor market, the Fed’s upcoming policy decision, and the outlook for the recovery.

Video

May in Review

June 2022

There was significant volatility in May, but markets ended the month broadly unchanged. Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s path for monetary policy remain in focus for investors.

Article

The Consumer Remains Strong … for Now …

June 3, 2022

Our clients are wondering whether or not the U.S. is headed for a recession. One of the main inputs into our outlook is the consumer.

Article

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Potomac Perspective

June 2, 2022

Stifel’s Chief Washington Policy Strategist, Brian Gardner, discusses ongoing debates in Congress over economic policies and the upcoming midterm elections.

Article

Q2 Allocation Insights

Q2 2022

See how the Stifel CIO Office is positioning portfolios in the current volatile environment.

Article

Growth? Inflation? Geopoltics? Making Sense of the Current Environment

May 20, 2022

We share some insights from our webinar with Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel’s Chief Economist, and Brian Gardner, Stifel’s Chief Washington Policy Strategist, where we discussed this unusual economic, political, and market environment.

Article

Can we achieve a “soft landing?

May 18, 2022

We discuss the drivers of market volatility and the data points investors are monitoring for signs of a “soft landing” as the Federal Reserve continues with its rate hikes.

Article

Replay: Increased Volatility in 2022

May 19, 2022

We discussed how higher inflation, shifting Federal Reserve policy, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the upcoming midterm elections are fueling increased volatility in 2022 and the related market and investment implications.

Video

A Positive “Season” so far: Where are earnings headed?

May 12, 2022

We review the results and learnings of the almost complete first-quarter 2022 earnings season and what they signal for equity market returns going forward.

Article

What's the Fed's path to a soft landing?

May 6, 2022

We review inflation, the first estimate of U.S. first-quarter 2022 GDP, and the learnings from the Federal Reserve’s May 2022 meeting.

Article

What’s driving volatility?

April 29, 2022

We review the uncertainties facing investors and offer our reasons for optimism as the year progresses.

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Quarterly Market Perspectives: Q2 2022

Q2 2022

The economic outlook grew even more uncertain in the first quarter. We discuss the war in Ukraine, inflation, monetary policy, and company earnings in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

Favorite 15

May 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides. 

Article

April in Review

May 2022

Markets had their worst month since the start of the pandemic. Investors continue to wrestle with a number of uncertainties that are impacting sentiment.

Article

Two Sides to the Inflation Debate: Are we moving past the peak?

April 21, 2022

Some economists believe inflation has peaked, others do not. Our view remains that inflation has peaked and will start to fall.

Article

Has inflation peaked?

April 2022

This month we summarize both sides of the inflation debate and offer our views on inflation, the war in Ukraine, and the related economic and market impacts.

Article

Replay: Investing During Volatile Times

April 13, 2022

Sneha Jose, Stifel’s Director of Behavioral Finance, discussed the recent market volatility and how behavioral finance can help you navigate these turbulent times.

Video

The “60/40” Portfolio Breaks Down: What should investors do?

April 8, 2022

Stocks and bonds both posted negative returns in the first quarter. Some might ask is the traditional 60/40 portfolio “dead?”  We think not.

Article

Will 200 bps of tightening be enough to cool inflation?

April 1 2022

Pandemic-driven supply/demand imbalances and the Ukraine war are putting upward pressure on prices. Investors are anticipating another 200 bps of tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Will this be enough to cool inflation?

Article

Favorite 15

April 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

March in Review

April 2022

U.S. equity markets were volatile but rose following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The yield curve flattened, and commodity prices moved higher.

Article

Market Crisis…or Resilience?

March 25, 2022

We check in on U.S. equity market performance since the start of the war, compare that to some past geopolitical events, and briefly discuss the implications for other asset classes.

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Balancing Acts All Around: Ukraine and Beyond

March 18, 2022

We revisit the concept of balancing acts from our outlook and how it applies to the issues we face in this historic first quarter of 2022.

Article

What are the implications from the war in Ukraine?

March 16, 2022

Will the Russia-Ukraine war and higher oil prices threaten the U.S. economic expansion? What is the Federal Reserve’s outlook for the year and how does it plan to cool inflation?

Video

Crude Awakening: Higher Oil Prices vs. a Resilient Consumer

March 11, 2022

We discuss higher energy prices and how they might, or might not, impact consumer behavior and increase the risk of a recession.

Article

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Some Questions and Answers

March 4, 2022

We answer some frequently asked questions submitted during our recent webinar and by clients over the last week.

Article

Favorite 15

March 2022

The Key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

February In Review

March 2022

U.S. equity markets fell during the month as geopolitical tensions rose, culminating in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Investors digested possible impacts to inflation, the economy, and Federal Reserve policy.

Article

Replay: Russia-Ukraine Crisis

February 28, 2022

Listen to Chief Investment Officer Michael O’Keeffe, Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner, and Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D. discuss what the Russia-Ukraine crisis means for the world economy and markets.

Video

Ukraine and the Impact to the Global Economy

February 25, 2022

We share some thoughts and initial analysis of the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Article

An Overview of Our Publications

February 18, 2022

A summary of all of the publications made available by the Stifel CIO Office.

Article

Investment Strategy Brief: Making sense of the market volatility

February 14, 2022

We share our thoughts on the increased market volatility and our still positive outlook for the year.

Article

The Evolution of Federal Reserve Policy

February 11, 2022

Jobs have recovered, inflation is elevated, and our Federal Reserve has pivoted to a hawkish policy stance.

Article

Will midterms impact equity returns?

February 4, 2022

A preview of what to expect as the midterm allocations approach later in the year.

Article

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Favorite 15

February 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

January in Review

February 2022

Market volatility increased as the S&P 500 hovered near correction territory during the month while tensions at the Ukraine border rose.  

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives

Quarterly Market Perspectives: Q1 2022

January 28, 2022

A review of the prior quarter's capital market returns and economic developments in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

SightLines

The S&P 500 is near a correction. Why, and where do we go from here?

January 28, 2022

With inflation elevated, the Fed has quickly shifted to a much more hawkish stance. We remain positive on stocks for 2022. But stay ready, we also expect volatility to remain elevated.

Article

ISB

Investment Strategy Brief Special Edition: 2022 Outlook

January, 2022

A summary of our 2022 outlook and an update of the macroeconomic environment amid higher inflation and increased volatility. 

Video

SightLines

What are the geopolitical risks we're monitoring?

January 21, 2022

The start of a new cold war, U.S.-China competition, D.C. gridlock, and European fragmentation are top of mind.

Article

SightLines

Imagining the Post-Pandemic World

January 14, 2022

The pandemic has changed our lives and how we do business. Some of these changes were temporary, but other changes appear more permanent.

Article

Webinar Replay

Webinar Replay: 2022 Outlook

January 11, 2022

How many times is the Fed expected to raise rates? Who will control the Senate after the midterm elections? How should portfolios be positioned as a result?

Video

SightLines

What's ahead for equity markets?

January 7, 2022

We forecast the S&P 500 crossing 5,000 to end the year. Read more on how it can get there and the potential risks.  

Article

2022 Outlook

2022 Outlook: Balancing Acts

January 5, 2022

We anticipate continued economic growth and higher equity markets, but we’ll see balancing acts all around, leading to a wider range of possible outcomes.

Article

Favorite 15

January 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

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