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MARKET SIGHT | LINES

Our Second Half Outlook: Animal Spirits Are Proving to Be a Driving Force in 2025

Despite a volatile first half, the S&P 500 surged ahead, up 6.2% and surpassing our 6,200 year-end target. What’s next for markets in 2H 2025? We provide an outlook for the second half of 2025, considering geopolitics, government policy, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, economic growth, and company earnings.

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Middle East War: Risks of Further Escalation, Higher Inflation, and Economic/Market Fallout

Market Slight|Lines

My team and I regularly update our Geopolitical Risk Dashboard. One such risk, Middle East War, describes a prolonged Israel/Iran conflict that could escalate to involve the U.S. and may now be unfolding.

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Resilient Markets Amidst Growing Tensions

Investment Strategy Brief

We review how the economy and markets appear resilient despite growing geopolitical tensions/hotspots and still evolving U.S. policies.

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Labor Market Firm and Inflation Cooling: When Will the Federal Reserve Cut Rates?

Market Sight|Lines

We share an update on the labor market and inflation – the two pillars of the Fed’s dual mandate – and how these results may influence the Fed policy decision next week and interest rates going forward.

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More Insights

Weekly Market Perspectives

July 11, 2025

The S&P 500 retreated slightly last week. Tariff threats from President Trump put U.S. trade policy uncertainty into the spotlight. Meanwhile, the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes signaled rate cuts later in the year.

Article

State of the Economy: Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators

Economic Insight

Despite a decline in first-quarter activity, the Fed continues to characterize the economy as “solid,” with a low unemployment rate and ongoing job creation. Reflecting an easing of some trade tensions, both household and business confidence have risen from the earlier lows recorded in the second quarter.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

16.31 billion: The average number of monthly visits to google.com between March and May, making it the most visited website in the U.S.

Newsletter

Senate Passes the One Big Beautiful Bill

Potomac Perspective

The Senate’s passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) sets up a House vote this week. While some House Republicans might oppose some of the bill’s provisions, we believe it is unlikely enough of them will vote against it to block it. 

Article

June in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

Despite volatility over the month, markets were higher in June, supported by easing tariff pressures, renewed progress in U.S.-China trade talks, cooling inflation data, and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, helping stabilize markets and boost investor sentiment.

Article

Special Edition: Global Monetary Policy

Economic Insight

The Federal Reserve and several other central banks announced their latest policy decisions. While most of them have been noting uncertainty about the global economy, their policy responses have varied. We take a closer look at global central bank policy and the outlook for rates.

Article

U.S. Fiscal Challenges: Growing Spotlight on an Unsustainable Path

Market Sight|Lines

We discuss how industry leaders are expressing their concerns, the political dynamic driving the worrisome Fiscal Trajectory, and the implications for individual investors when the problem comes to a head in the future.

Article

Bowman's Inaugural Speech Takeaways

Potomac Perspective 

Today the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s new Vice Chair for Supervision, Michelle Bowman, gave her first speech since being confirmed earlier this week by the Senate. The speech reflected much of what Vice Chair Bowman has said as a Fed Governor, so there wasn’t much new. Still, the speech was a positive for the banking industry.

June 6, 2025 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

30 million: The number of waffles eaten globally by Hampton Inn lodgers last year, a perk that’s boosted the company’s bottom line.

Newsletter

Iran Attack Does Not Fundamentally Alter One Big Beautiful Bill Debate?

Potomac Perspective 

The bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites over the past weekend is unlikely to materially change the timeline for finishing the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” although it could make passing the Senate’s version of the bill by July 4 a little more challenging. The most important factor driving the timing of the bill is the debt ceiling.

June 23, 2025

Article

Strong Q1 Earnings, But Are We Seeing the First Cracks?

Market Sight|Lines

The latest earnings season showcased the S&P 500’s resilience, with earnings and revenue growth exceeding expectations despite persistent uncertainty. Elevated valuations, trade tensions, and sector-specific challenges raise questions about the sustainability of this momentum.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

+49: The net trust score among U.S. adults for The Weather Channel, making it America’s most trusted news source so far in 2025.

Newsletter

Trump/Musk Divorce and the OBBB

Potomac Perspective 

The bromance breakup of President Trump and Elon Musk is generating headlines but is unlikely to result in meaningful changes to the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” That does not mean that some Senate Republicans won’t try to reduce spending by more than what the House proposed, but Mr. Musk’s sway among Republican voters is limited.

June 6, 2025

Article

U.S. Debt May Be “Money Good” For Now, but the Downgrade is Another Negative Signal

Market Sight|Lines

Will our government repay its debt? Last year, we added the theme Financial Instability to our geopolitical risk dashboard — highlighting how higher debt levels and higher rates can lead to a painful Fiscal Transition. We summarize the recent Moody’s U.S. government debt downgrade and how it relates to the troubling U.S. fiscal trajectory.

Article

Taxes, Tariffs, and a Tamp Down of Regulation?

Potomac Perspective Podcast

Is President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” losing momentum in Congress? In the latest episode of Potomac Perspective, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner and co-host Neil Shapiro have the latest on taxes, tariffs, and a possible tamp down of regulatory policy.

June 5th, 2025

Podcast

Medicaid Ruling is a Speed Bump

Potomac Perspective

The Senate Parliamentarian advised that the Senate Finance Committee’s proposal on Medicaid does not comply with reconciliation rules, according to Punchbowl News. This will force Republicans to either rewrite their proposal or find offsets elsewhere.

June 26, 2025

Article

Is The Fed Chairman Safe

Potomac Perspective

The Supreme Court ruled Thursday that the President can remove members of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) and the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB), even though the statutes governing both agencies state that board members may only be removed for cause — and no such cause was given.

May 23, 2025

Article

May in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

The S&P 500 finished May higher, despite ongoing uncertainty stemming from trade policy, the fiscal deficit, and inflation.

Article

Special Edition: Potential Impact of Tariffs on Consumers as it Relates to Food Consumption and Trade

Economic Insight
 
This week, we take a closer look at the state of agricultural trade, the growing reliance on imports, and where food is sourced.

Article

One Big Beautiful Bill and Moody's Downgrade

Potomac Perspective

House Republicans continue to progress slowly with their efforts to pass the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” A fractured House GOP makes the prospects of the House passing the bill this week a toss-up. As currently written (which could change when the Senate produces its own version of the bill), we think the bill could provide a slight economic boost but would not significantly change the trajectory of the federal government’s debt. We explain why the Moody’s downgrade probably won’t change the political calculus regarding the bill.

May 22, 2025

Article

Helpful Insights from Stifel’s Blueprint Conference: The Economy, Markets, and Innovation

Market Sight|Lines

Each year at Stifel, we hold our Blueprint conference, where we come together with industry experts to discuss the environment and best practices for serving our clients. I share some helpful learnings from these discussions, including insights on the economy, the markets, and industry innovation.

Article

Allocation Insights

Q2 | 2025

Policy uncertainty has intensified market volatility and clouded the outlook for economic growth. This year returns are expected to broaden, with innovation poised to unlock long-term opportunities.

Article

Market Pulse

Stay current on market developments with timely commentary on days when the S&P 500 closes up or down by more than 2%.

Article

Hurdles on the Hill?

Potomac Perspective Podcast

Things could get ugly, as fractured House Republicans race to overcome final hurdles in passing President Trump’s “big beautiful bill”. In the latest episode of Potomac Perspective, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner and co-host Neil Shapiro have the latest on the negotiations

May 21, 2025

Podcast

Quick Thoughts on China Tariffs and Big Beautiful Tax Bill

Potomac Perspective

Regarding the trade agreement, the speed of the deal was striking, as we expected negotiations with China to last much longer. Tariffs will still be significantly higher than they were at the beginning of the year. The tax bill from the House committee should be seen as an opening bid in what will be a grueling process.

May 15, 2025

Article

Special Edition: A Historical Perspective: U.S. Tariffs

Economic Insight 

The policies of the Trump administration continue to drive the outlook for the U.S. economy in 2025.

We take a closer look at the history of tariffs, including a spotlight of three different periods in history, and the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy.

Article

NextGen Investor Handbook

Introducing the NextGen Investor Handbook, a practical and engaging resource designed to help recent grads and young professionals navigate life-changing financial decisions and milestones, including budgeting, saving, investing, and starting a family. Flip through the handbook and take the first step toward building your financial future!

Article

Negative Headlines Threaten Confidence, but U.S. Resilience May Prevail

Market Sight|Lines

Lately, the headlines have turned quite negative, which may well be dampening Animal Spirits. This week we discuss the potential influence of the media on the economy and markets, then look to how U.S. resilience may prevail to sustain economic and market growth. 

Article

Big Beautiful Bill, Bond Vigilantes, and Stablecoin and Credit Cards

Potomac Perspective 

Despite a social media post from President Trump, we think privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is still months away. Significant work remains before the Treasury Department can launch an IPO to recapitalize these government sponsored enterprises (GSEs). Year-end 2025 seems like an ambitious goal, while 2026 seems more plausible.

May 22, 2025 

Article

Trump 2.0’s First 100 Days: Actions, Uncertainty, and Mixed Data

Market Sight|Lines

We review the first 100 days of the second Trump administration, highlighting its actions, increased uncertainty, and some economic and market data.

Article

Watching for Uncertainty to Fade

Investment Strategy Brief

We discuss how we’re watching for uncertainty to fade in areas like trade, Federal Reserve policy, and the risk of recession, which may be providing some relief for investors.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

70,000: The number of Dum Dums lollipops (about $4,000 worth) an 8-year-old Kentucky boy ordered on Amazon from his mother’s phone.

Newsletter

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

1.8%: The probability that the Dallas Mavericks would win the No. 1 draft pick this June, which they did. The Mavs are expected to draft Duke’s Cooper Flagg.

Newsletter

The Big, Beautiful Bill

Potomac Perspective Podcast 

President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” takes shape, as Congress prepares to consider proposed tax breaks and spending cuts. In the latest episode of Potomac Perspective, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner and co-host Neil Shapiro discuss the latest from Capitol Hill, including a possible crack in the Senate’s bipartisan crypto coalition.

March 5, 2025 

Podcast

Reflections on Equity Market Volatility

Market Sight|Lines

Investors have been worried about tariffs and trade wars; inflation, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and presidential intervention at the Fed; and the increasing risks of recession. However, we maintain our view that things will end up more positive than people think.

Article

April in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

An escalation in trade tensions, along with growing concerns about the economic outlook led to significant capital market volatility in April.

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives

2Q 2025

The first quarter of 2025 marked a shift in tone for markets, as optimism gave way to caution amid rising policy uncertainty and shifting growth expectations. In the U.S., markets digested a flurry of executive orders from the new Trump administration, including proposed tariffs that stirred volatility and dampened investor sentiment. The S&P 500 fell 5.2% – its first quarterly decline in over a year – led lower by technology and growth stocks. In contrast, defensive sectors and value-oriented equities showed relative strength.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Think your job’s hard? Try becoming a U.S. licensed customs broker. One must pass a 4.5-hour, open-book exam with 80 confusing questions on tariffs, classifications, and fees. The average pass rate? Just 21%. This includes one exam in 2019, where only 4.2% passed.

Newsletter

Unpacking the Market Dynamics of Tariffs, Inflation, and Recession Fears

Market Sight|Lines

Uncertainty has investors on edge, with tariffs creating worries that inflation will accelerate and potentially trigger a recession. Despite rising inflation expectations, rate cuts are still on the table. Markets are down this year, yet rates are up. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we break down how the market has reacted to the current environment and what the data says about what could come next.

Article

Scenarios on Timing for the Tax Bill?

April 30, 2025

In this note, we look at possible scenarios of when Congress might finalize this legislation. Currently, we expect the process to be completed before August. The situation is fluid, however, and could change. It’s possible that market moving headlines on the bill’s substance could pick up this week.

Potomac Perspective 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Chipotle is bringing burritos to Mexico. Good luck! Taco Bell had a failed launch twice in Mexico. A Mexican historian said it was “like bringing ice to the Arctic.”

Newsletter

The World in 2035: From Vision to Value

Throughout history, even the most brilliant minds have made predictions that have not quite stood the test of time. Yet, for investors, anticipating the megatrends influencing the economy and markets is crucial for successful investing. This year, we set out to imagine how our long-term investment themes could shape the world of 2035, exploring their transformative potential. Here are 10 ways how the world may be different over the next decade.

Article

Crossroads: Four Ways Forward

As the U.S. and China remain locked in a decades-long competition for global leadership, this rivalry will shape not only their bilateral relations, but also the global order. With each nation facing a unique set of challenges and opportunities, how they respond to these forces of change will be critical in determining their future trajectories.

Article

First tariffs, next taxes?

Potomac Perspective Podcast 

In the latest episode of Potomac Perspective, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner and co-host Neil Shapiro discuss what's shaping up to be the next great debate in Washington.

April 16, 2025

Podcast

Client Webinar: Economic Insight LIVE

Watch Stifel’s Chief Economist, Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., as she presents her latest quarterly economic update.

Video

Pharma Tariffs, Tax Update, and Financial Deregulation?

Potomac Perspective 

The tariff drumbeat continues as President Trump said on Tuesday night that he intends to impose new tariffs on pharmaceuticals. This has been previously signaled but may have been overshadowed by headlines on global tariffs. 

April 9, 2025

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$1.26 million: The “magic number” Americans think they need to retire comfortably, down $200,000 from 2024, according to a new study by Northwestern Mutual.

Newsletter

How Will D.C. Policy Shifts Shape Markets?

March Investment Strategy Brief

We discuss the latest policy shifts in Washington and how rising uncertainty may be weighing on business and consumer sentiment, dampening Animal Spirits and fueling concerns about an economic slowdown and stock market weakness.

Article

The Tariff Pause Highlights How Trump’s Trade War Is Much About U.S.-China Competition

Market Sight|Lines

On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause on some tariffs, leading to a market relief rally. However, market volatility is expected to continue due to uncertainties in trade negotiations over the next 90 days. Importantly, some tariffs, including those on China, remain in place. President Trump has consistently stated he believes China acts unfairly to the disadvantage of U.S. companies. We review how the tariff pause highlights the U.S.-China trade war competition.

Article

Trade Policy Clarity, Economic Uncertainty: The Investment Implications of President Trump’s “Liberation Day”

Market Sight|Lines

Since Inauguration Day, uncertainty surrounding trade policy has unsettled the markets. Perhaps in response to this, the Trump administration recently provided more clarity for the new tariffs being imposed this month. We briefly review the administration’s motivations and methods, potential economic disruptions, and the implications for investors.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

600 tons: The weight of around 1.5 million iPhones. Apple recently chartered cargo flights from India to get this many iPhones over the U.S. to beat the tariffs.

Newsletter

Tariff Options and Reconciliation Reality Check

Potomac Perspective 

In today’s note, we discuss possible next steps for the Trump administration tariff proposal.  We think the White House has three options – stay the course, negotiate, and pause (a variation on the negotiation option). We explain why we believe the negotiation option makes the most sense but also may deliver limited meaningful changes.

April 7, 2025

Article

FIVE TIPS TO NAVIGATE A BEAR MARKET

When stocks enter a bear market, dropping more than 20% from their recent peak, losses may feel like they’ll never end. Some investors even panic and make irrational investment decisions that may jeopardize long-term goals and objectives. Here are five tips to help you navigate a bear market.

Article

A Stronger-than-Expected March Employment Report Does Little to Quell Tariff Tantrum

Economic Insight

A stronger-than-expected March employment report, with payrolls rising 228,000, underscores the still solid nature of the U.S. economy, as well as the challenge to assess the potential risk and impact of recent fiscal policy initiatives on the domestic labor market.

Video

Liberation Day Takeaways

Potomac Perspective 

President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement seems to be part of an ambitious effort to restructure the America economy. The long-term economic impact is unclear, but in the short-term, uncertainty surrounds U.S. policy and the international response

April 3, 2025 

Article

State of the Economy: Leading, Lagging and Coincident Indicators

Economic Insight

Amid ample uncertainty and growing unknowns surrounding fiscal policy initiatives, the Federal Reserve opted to remain on the sidelines at the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Reiterating a need for further clarity about the impact of tariffs on the economy as well as inflation, the Committee emphasized they were in no rush to adjust rates, at least in the near term.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Let’s Talk About…Tariffs. This wasn’t exactly the summer kickoff we had in mind. If this feels like déjà vu, you’re not wrong – we flagged it last year – and here we are. The talk has turned into action. 

Newsletter

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

124.583 minutes: The average length of college basketball games for the 2024-25 season, up almost six minutes from the 2020-21 season. The reason? Replay reviews.

Newsletter

March in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

The S&P 500 entered a correction and ended March 5.63% lower, triggered by concerns over slowing economic growth, policy uncertainty, weaker corporate guidance, and hotter-than-expected inflation.

Article

Florida Special Election Takeaways

Potomac Perspective 

As expected, Republicans won special elections for two vacant House seats in Florida. This will give them 220 seats in the House, a slightly bigger margin than what they have had so far in 2025. The results, however, signaled a shift towards Democrats, and Republicans from more competitive districts than these Florida seats will probably take notice. This could, in turn, complicate passing a tax bill.

April 2, 2025

Article

Liberation Week, Moving a Budget Resolution, and Key Special Elections?

Potomac Perspective 

This week investors should get some clarity on tariffs. President Trump has declared Wednesday, April 2, as “Liberation Day.” Regardless of what the administration announces, investors might view it as “Clarity Day.”

April 1, 2025

Article

Financials and Possible Budget Hiccup

Potomac Perspective 

In addition to a slew of macro policy events this week, such as Liberation Day (which we covered previously), there are several upcoming events related to financial services including votes to block overdraft rules, on a Stablecoin bill, and on legislation to facilitate de novo bank charters.  Nominations for personnel to run key financial regulatory agencies should also move forward this week.

April 2, 2025

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

288 days later – astronauts Sunita Williams and Barry Wilmore are back on Earth – cue the dramatic touchdown music. Do they get overtime pay? There’s plenty of movies that glamorize space travel … but they tend to skip over what really happens to your body after nearly a year of floating around and surviving on freeze-dried ice cream. 

Newsletter

While Some Caution Is Warranted, There’s No Need for Panic

Market Sight|Lines

Recently, we’ve seen some economic data that may be signaling a slowdown, and many market watchers are raising the alarm that issues like geopolitical tensions and tariffs are to blame. While we believe there's no need to hit the panic button, a bit of caution might be warranted. We unpack some of the recent data and our views going forward. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

4:39 p.m.: The time that the average American workday concludes, 42 minutes earlier than in 2022, albeit with a 2% increase in overall productivity.

Newsletter

Federal Reserve Reiterates “Solid” Economy, Base Case “Transitory” Fiscal Policy Impact

Economic Insight

As expected, the Fed opted to keep rates unchanged at the most recent FOMC meeting for the second consecutive month. Widely anticipated to hold policy steady after moving to the sidelines in January, the accompanying statement last week indicated a consistently solid assessment of current conditions. Furthermore, the Committee remains optimistic it can – and should – provide additional policy relief by year-end and achieve its longer-run goal of price stability over the medium term.

Article

Economic and Market Insights From the March Federal Reserve Meeting

Market Sight|Lines

Investors, business leaders, and consumers are closely watching the transition in Washington, with a particular focus on how the rapid and substantive policy changes may impact the economy going forward. Post-election optimism has given way to worries about potential negative economic impacts. We unpack the results of the Federal Reserve meeting and look to discern their thinking on the potential impacts of policy change in Washington.

Article

Signals From the Noise: How Our 2025 Base Case Might Unfold

Market Sight|Lines

These days, we’re bombarded by dramatic news stories, often about the economic and market implications of policy shifts in Washington. However, the data signals we’re seeing for anticipated consumer engagement and forecasted earnings remain mostly positive so far. We discuss how we must look through the media noise to see the signals showing how our modestly positive “base case” might unfold in 2025. 

Article

Potomac Perspective

March 16, 2025

On Tuesday, President Trump fired both Democratic Commissioners of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). Aside from the obvious implications for the FTC, the news could signal that similar actions could be taken at the Federal Reserve. Investors will be occupied with today’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but longer term, the FTC firings might have policy implications for the central bank and monetary policy.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

The S&P 500 is down 9% from its mid-February peak, and while your first instinct might be to yell “Tariffs!” let’s take a deep breath. Yes, the “Magnificent Seven” hit correction territory, but not all stocks are struggling. Value stocks (think healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities) and European equities are holding their own, both positive so far in 2025. This is where diversification earns its keep.

Newsletter

Amid Elevated Inflation and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty, the Federal Reserve Remains on Hold

Economic Insight

Given the ample uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy, as well as the unknown directional momentum of inflation, Federal Reserve officials moved to the sidelines at the start of the year. Looking forward, while markets remain optimistic the Federal Open Market Committee will be willing and able to eventually eke out at least three additional rate cuts by year-end, policy is likely to remain steady in the near term.

Article

Potomac Perspective

March 14, 2024 

We think the market’s recent decline is due in part to a recalibration of geopolitical assumptions, especially regarding tariffs. When some investors initially looked at President Trump’s economic agenda, they saw only desserts (low taxes and deregulation) but ignored that they might have to eat their veggies (tariffs) first.

Article

Potomac Perspective

March 10, 2025

 We think the chances of a government shutdown at the end of this week are low, although not zero.  Even if there is a shutdown, we do not expect a market reaction to it.  House Republicans are meeting this week to plan their tax legislation.  The situation is fluid and will likely change over the coming months, but this meeting could provide some clarity on the upcoming tax bill. 

Article

Animal Spirits Are in Focus: A Look at Some Soft and Hard Data

Market Sight|Lines

In recent weeks, we’ve explored different economic and market scenarios, with a particular focus on Animal Spirits—the emotions that fuel growth and drive markets. However, concerns are mounting that these spirits may be fading amid rising uncertainties, including tariffs and government layoffs. We take a closer look at key soft and hard economic data to gain deeper insight into how the landscape is evolving.

Article

The State of the Labor Market: Fears of Emerging Weakness, Again

Economic Insight

We take an updated look at the latest round of labor market data, still showing a broadly positive, but somewhat mixed picture of conditions.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Nostalgia is real right now. “Do you want to hop on a Skype call?” More like, “Let’s just hop on a Teams call.” Microsoft is officially pulling the plug on Skype this year.

Newsletter

Putting Our Bull Case Scenario in Focus: Investment Topics for Optimistic Investors

Market Sight|Lines

Earlier this month, we discussed the possible paths through which our bear case may unfold, along with some investment themes to consider. Now, we share possible drivers of our bull case scenario and some related investment topics.

Article

Special Edition Economic Insight A Closer Look: Trade and Tariffs

Economic Insight

The policies of the Trump administration continue to drive the outlook for the U.S. economy in 2025: The threat of increased tariffs could lead to a pickup in inflation and reduced investment, while an extension of the 2017 tax cuts and deregulation could offer a – partial – offset.

Article

February in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives 

The S&P 500 finished February down 1.30%, triggered by policy uncertainty, particularly surrounding tariffs, along with mixed economic data and stickier inflation, weighing on investor sentiment.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

29.2%: The percentage of individual investors that expect stock prices to rise over the next six months as of February 19, 2025, down from 41.0% at the end of January.

Article

Favorite 15

February 2025

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing the policies of the new administration and their potential impact on the economy and market.

Article

A Resilient Economy, Sticky Inflation, and Aggressive Fiscal Policy Agenda Limit Downside Potential for Fed Rate Relief

Economic Insight

Amid modest growth and a restrained monetary policy pathway, at least near-term, fiscal policy will serve as a significant wild card for the economy, as a potentially ambitious agenda around taxes and tariffs likely results in ongoing positive growth coupled with persistent, above-target inflation and growing budget strains.

Video

Allocation Insights

Q1 | 2025

We remain in a positive economic environment, returns are set to broaden, and we expect innovation to drive long-term opportunities. This is a year to lean into the changes underway and position portfolios to capitalize on these transformative shifts.

Article

Potomac Perspective

February 25, 2025

Legislative process and procedures usually bore investors, but these factors are key to passing part of the Trump administration’s economic agenda.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

250 million: The estimated number of roses produced just for Valentine’s Day in the U.S., with 22% of Americans buying flowers for the day of love.

Newsletter

Changes in Washington D.C. Optimism or Pessimism?

February Investment Strategy Brief 

The Trump administration is seeking to move quickly to implement the changes promised during the campaign. We provide an update how the economic and market environments are reacting, including how the form, scale, and pace of these changes have some investors pessimistic and others optimistic about the future.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

43%: The percentage of U.S. fast-food orders that happen via drive-thru. Sometimes, those fries smell too good to resist, with 27% of meals eaten before leaving the vehicle.

Newsletter

A Somewhat Uneven January Labor Report Still Supports Fed’s Policy Pause in Review

Economic Insight

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a somewhat disappointing 143,000 in January, a three-month low. Still, with much of the weakness likely weather-related as well as upward revisions to earlier months, the average remains in line with the expansionary pace of the previous three cycles.

Video

Potomac Perspective

February 13, 2025

The House Budget Committee is scheduled to markup its budget resolution this morning, which would begin the formal process of extending the Trump tax cuts. The Budget Resolution merely provides other committees topline numbers on spending cuts and taxes that they must meet. 

Article

Putting Bear Case Scenarios in Focus: Investment Ideas for Times of Trouble

Market Sight|Lines

We share possible paths for our bear case scenario and some investment themes to reinforce and deepen diversification that may be helpful should one of these paths unfold.

Article

January in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives


The S&P 500 finished January with a gain of 2.78%, triggered by markets initially responding positively to President Trump’s actions and the absence of tariffs. This resulted in expectations of a boost in business investment, alleviating inflation fears. 

Article

DeepSeek, AI, and U.S.-China Competition

Market Sight|Lines

U.S.-China competition, which is included in our update to our Geopolitical Risk Dashboard, made the news this month as the Chinese company High-Flyer launched the DeepSeek-R1 reasoning model. In this week’s Sight|Lines, our outlook spotlight discusses the implications of this model launch with a focus on the article Crossroads: Four Ways Forward.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

15%+: The increase in pedestrians’ walking speed in New York, Boston, and Philadelphia between 1980 and 2010.

Newsletter

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

52%: The percentage of U.S. adult TikTok users that say they regularly get news there, roughly 17% of all U.S. adults.

Newsletter

Quarterly Market Perspectives

Q1 2025 

In this edition of our Quarterly Market Perspective's we discuss market returns for 2024 and the potential for market broadening in 2025. 

Article

Potomac Perspective

February 3, 2025

New tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada have been officially announced. Next comes retaliation, possibly followed by an escalation, and then probably a negotiation. A negotiated settlement is our base case because it fits with President Trump’s track record, both in business and government, of using leverage to reach a deal. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

7.5%: The decline in total tolling traffic to Manhattan in the first week of congestion pricing compared to the same time last year, roughly equivalent to 43,000 cars a day.

Newsletter

Outlook 2025 Spotlight No. 2: Our Outlook for the Year

Market Sight|Lines

We highlight our positive view, fueled by the positive momentum of 2024, while exploring two alternative scenarios, our bull and bear case. We anticipate a positive economic and market environment in 2025, supported by the business-friendly policy backdrop, resilient consumer spending, and robust capital investment.

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Outlook 2025 Spotlight No. 3: The World in 2035: From Vision to Value

Market Sight|Lines

We spotlight the article The World in 2035: From Vision to Value. We explore 10 groundbreaking innovations that could shape the next decade, all rooted in our long-term investment themes. Discover the potential of the Rise of Bionics, Flying Taxis, Humanoid Robots and more.

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Favorite 15

January 2024

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing the our annual outlook.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 19, 2025, 

Expect a flurry of action from the new administration. Some of the moves could have an impact on financial markets, but most will not. It might take several days before some of Mr. Trump’s top priorities are announced. Just because they do not happen on Day 1 or Day 2 does not mean they are not happening.

Article

Client Webinar: Economic Insight LIVE Thursday, January 30, 1:00 p.m. ET

Join Stifel’s Chief Economist, Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., as she presents her latest quarterly economic update

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Potomac Perspective

January 29, 2025

The whirlwind of a second Trump term continues. Tariffs, spending freezes, and decisions on tax policy are all being rolled out piecemeal, and key details remain elusive. In our weekly note, we look at the possible timing of announcements and the implementation of tariffs.

Article

Outlook 2025 Spotlight No. 1: A Brief Summary

Market Sight|Lines

2025 should prove to be an exciting year full of change, and as is my team’s practice, this week we released our outlook report, Outlook 2025: Gravitational Shifts. You can read the full report, watch a video summary, or join our upcoming client webinar, but in this week’s Sight|Lines, we once again start the year by sharing a brief overview of the report.

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Outlook 2025: Gravitational Shifts

January Investment Strategy Brief

Entering 2025, we observe potential shifts in government policy, monetary policy, and markets that will influence results this year. We look back at 2024 and review our outlook for 2025 on policy, the economy, and the markets.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

10,000 hours: The hours of work per day that Chick-fil-A is saving in labor by using lemon-squeezing robots.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

January 6, 2025

Today, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr announced that he will resign his leadership post on February 28, 2025, but will remain as a Governor. We explain why we think this is a positive for banks and what the next steps might be.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$10,000: The current cost of one ton of cocoa futures. That’s one pricey chocolate bar.

Newsletter

December in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

The S&P 500 ended December down 2.38%, triggered by a more hawkish-than-expected Federal Reserve stance, with plans to "proceed cautiously" on rate actions going forward. This resulted in more rate-sensitive sectors in the market to fall over the month, specifically small caps.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

452: The equivalent of 2025, making this year a rare perfect square year. The last time it happened was 1936 and the next will be in 2116.
 

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

December 20th, 2024

Chances of a government shutdown have increased materially since the House rejected a Continuing Resolution (CR) last night. If there is a shutdown, it could be a very short one – maybe just the weekend.

Article

The Shift in Government May Impact Earnings in 2025

Market Sight|Lines 

My team and I closely monitor company earnings to gauge market trends and manage equity portfolios. The third quarter earnings season is wrapping up, offering key insights into the stock market. With the recent U.S. elections, it's also crucial to consider how upcoming policy changes in D.C. might impact future earnings. We review the third quarter results and explore the potential policy implications of the new administration.

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Potomac Perspective

January 9, 2025

A second Trump administration will promote a pro-growth and deregulatory agenda even as some policies deviate from a traditional Republican approach – it is a mix of populism and free market economics.  Parts of this ambitious agenda can be implemented administratively, while other parts, like tax cuts, must be passed by Congress.

Article

The Federal Reserve Signals a Slower Rate Cut Cycle

Market Sight|Lines

Inflation has firmed and seems to have settled above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) 2% inflation target. Despite this, the Fed cut rates 0.25% at its final meeting of 2024, leaving monetary policy still restrictive. Investors are now eyeing the Fed’s expected policy in 2025, with fewer rate cuts now expected. We review inflation, Fed policy actions, and the economic and market implications of this modest policy shift. 

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Potomac Perspective

December 19, 2024

In the wake of bipartisan criticism of a spending bill, House leaders are considering Plan B to fund the government into March.  Although nothing is final, we think the odds of a government shutdown are low, but more importantly, this week’s developments in Congress are just an appetizer for next year’s main course on Capitol Hill. 

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A Shift from 2024 to 2025

Investment Strategy Brief

As the year comes to a close, we shift our focus to 2025. We discuss the incoming administration, developing geopolitical events, and their potential impact on the economy and markets.

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Year-End Reflections

Market Sight|Lines

December is a good time to reflect on this past year and consider some important issues as we look to start the new year. We offer some year-end reflections about 2024 with a look to 2025.

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Potomac Perspective

December 12, 2024

The BIOSECURE Act and China outbound investment legislation were both left out of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Congress has one more “must pass” bill this year – a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government into March. Both bills that were left out of the NDAA could be included in a CR.

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Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Spotify Wrapped came out this week, so it is time for your coworkers to see which finance podcasts you listen to at your desk that sound like Sabrina Carpenter blasting through your headphones. Taylor Swift was the most streamed artist this year, followed by The Weeknd.

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November in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

The S&P 500 rallied in November, marking its ninth gain in the last 11 months. The primary driver was the reduction in political uncertainty following Donald Trump's re-election as U.S. President and continued artificial intelligence optimism.

Article

Longstanding, Elevated Inflation Prompts Federal Reserve to Focus on Labor Market for December Policy Decision

December 9, 2024

Inflation remains stubbornly elevated, with nearly all measures of price pressures above – or noticeably above – the Committee’s 2% target. That being said, the lack of downward momentum and an uneven pathway for prices has been longstanding.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 3, 2024

In the days before Thanksgiving, President-elect Trump continued to fill out his economic policy team.  The picks are mostly in line with expectations and include a mix of traditional Republicans who will push for low taxes and deregulation, a protectionist who will push Mr. Trump’s tariff agenda, and a budget hawk who espouses typical Republican views on spending but could run into resistance on Capitol Hill. 

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Favorite 15

November 2024

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing the policies of the new administration and their potential impact on the economy and market.

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The Impact of the 2024 U.S. Elections

November Investment Strategy Brief

Republicans will have a unified government in 2025, with narrow majorities. We discuss the policies of the new administration and their potential impact on the economy and markets.

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Tariffs, Inflation, and Federal Reserve Policy: Slow and Steady

Market Sight|Lines

November 25,2025 

While investors cheered the September Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut with the anticipation of more, inflation remains sticky, which will slow the pace of further cuts. We review the state of inflation, the direction of Fed policy, and the potential impact of any tariffs imposed by the incoming Trump administration.

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Potomac Perspective

November 18, 2024

Several parts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) expire after 2025, and the Congressional Budget Office estimated that extending these sunsets for 10 years would add almost $5 trillion to the debt. That is before inclusion of President-elect Trump’s campaign promises of additional tax cuts (especially restoring full state and local tax deductibility) are included.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$17.7 billion: The estimated amount Americans spent on out-of-home cold coffee (iced coffee, cold brew, and frozen coffee drinks) in 2023, double the 2016 figure.

Newsletter

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

What a week for the markets! Voters reelected Donald Trump, Republicans took control of the Senate, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 25 basis points. The result? The S&P 500 had its best week of 2024. Let’s try to understand what the market is thinking.

Newsletter

Looking Further at the Implications of the 2025 Transition of Power in Washington, D.C.

Market Sight|Lines

November 15, 2024 

We dive into the transformative new policies of the 2025 Trump administration and their potential ripple effects across the economy and markets. With a unified Republican government driving change, we’re exploring everything from deregulation to “America First” strategies and what these moves could mean for the future.

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Republicans Win Big in 2024: Economic and Market Implications

Market Sight|Lines

This week, American voters headed to the polls, reelecting Donald J. Trump and shifting the Senate to Republican control. In this week's Sight|Lines, we recap the election results and delve into the economic and market implications of this significant power shift in Washington, D.C. 

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Weaker-Than-Expected Rise in October Payrolls amid Hurricanes Disruptions

Economic Insight
November 4, 2024

A meager 12,000 rise in October payrolls is certainly disappointing, but largely explained by the transitory impact of the recent hurricanes. Even with arguments of some earlier, emerging weakness in housing, construction, and manufacturing, the storyline of a solid economy remains intact.

Video

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

33%: The percentage of all companies that required workers to be in the office five days a week in the third quarter, up from 31% in the second quarter, according to Flex Index.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

November 6, 2024

Several media outlets have called the 2024 presidential election for Donald Trump. Not only has Trump won the Electoral College, but he is poised to win the popular vote and could be the first Republican candidate to win an outright majority of the popular vote since 2004.  Republicans have retaken the Senate, but the House is too close to call.

Article

A Smooth Flight Perhaps… Or Turbulence Ahead?

Investment Strategy Brief

It’s been smooth sailing for the U.S. economy and markets, but in our October Investment Strategy Brief we discuss how uncertainties around the upcoming election, U.S. fiscal trajectory, and Middle East conflicts may create some turbulence ahead.

Video

The U.S. Debt Trajectory: The Need for a Fiscal Transition

Market Sight|Lines

Given increased levels of debt and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, we've been raising the alarm about a pending Fiscal Transition across our economy. Learn about the potential risks in this Sight|Lines.

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An Update – From Vision to Value: Our Long-Term Investment Themes

Market Sight|Lines

Recently, we've covered short-term topics, but it's crucial for investors to keep an eye on the long-term changes in our world. Let’s dive into our long-term investment themes, highlighting value-creation opportunities that will shape the way we live, interact, and consume goods and services.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

40%: The percentage of Gen Z (ages 18-27) workers who think that they’re behind where they should be on their retirement savings.

Newsletter

Stronger-than-Expected Rise in September Payrolls Muddies Outlook for November Policy Action

October 7, 2024
Economic Insight

A significantly stronger-than-expected 254,000 gain in September nonfarm payrolls not only calls into question the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s latest outsized rate cut decision in September, but also the size of additional rate cuts needed going forward.

Article

Client Webinar Replay | 2024 U.S. Elections

August 1, 2016

Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner and Chief Investment Officer Michael O’Keeffe discussed the potential outcomes and investment implications of the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections. 

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The New Consumer: Findings from our 2024 Summer Intern Survey

In the second year of our intern survey, over 150 of Stifel’s summer interns offered insight into their preferences, spending habits, and perceptions of the world.

Find out what our interns think about artificial intelligence, investing, big ticket purchases, climate change, and more.

Article

AI Will Change Our Future; It’s Transforming Our World Today

April 12, 2024

The strong stock market results this year celebrate the potential for artificial intelligence (AI). And while big, tech-oriented companies are driving this performance, the opportunity goes well beyond tech-oriented stocks. We review the concept of AI and zoom in on some real-life uses that are already transforming our world today.

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The Protectionist Vote: How Are Elections Shaping Global Trade?

April 26, 2024

Earlier this year, we shared a view on how the 2024 election supercycle is bringing focus to an evolving world order, with the U.S. and China competing in what is increasingly a multipolar world. We continue the discussion, digging deeper into protectionism and the implications for global competition, China’s trade relations, and geopolitical hotspots.

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Caution or Optimism: Can AI Counter a Potential Economic Slowdown?

April Investment Strategy Brief 

We delve into continued inflationary pressures, Fed policy, and the health of the U.S. consumer. We also examine the rally in commodity prices, the global election supercycle, and related investment implications.

Article

The Speed of Market Rotation: Staying the Course

Market Sight|Lines 
July 19, 2024

We further discuss the potential for a stock market rotation and use the market shifts of the last week to illustrate how quickly a meaningful rotation can occur.

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INVESTORʼS HANDBOOK FOR ELECTION YEARS

In each election year, the prevailing narrative seems to suggest that our country stands at a crossroads with the potential for significant consequences. This often creates uncertainty for investors and leads to market volatility. The temptation to react impulsively to political changes can be strong, but amid this uncertainty, a disciplined and long-term approach to investing becomes paramount. 

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