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2026 U.S. Midterm Elections

The midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
 
Join us for two 45-minute sessions: the first to frame what is at stake and what markets have already discounted, the second to translate the results into portfolio implications.

Replay of Part One | Register for Part Two

Third-Quarter Earnings: Lofty Expectations, an Uneven Picture

Market Sight | Lines

Third-quarter earnings season is underway, and expectations are high. Companies in the S&P 500 are projected to deliver nearly 30% earnings growth, with analysts raising estimates during the quarter rather than lowering them. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we explore what’s driving the stronger earnings outlook, why growth remains concentrated in certain sectors, what company reports may reveal about consumers and artificial intelligence investment, and why we believe forward guidance may matter as much as the results themselves.

READ

Artificial Intelligence: Free Markets, Bad Actors, and Economic Transformation

Market Sight | Lines 

Artificial Intelligence is no longer a future concept. It is already changing how individuals work, how businesses operate, and how value is created across the economy. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we explore how competition and free markets accelerated the development of AI, the growing debate around regulation and misuse, and why we continue to believe AI has the potential to boost productivity and support long-term economic growth.

READ

Looking Past the Midterms: AI Still in Focus

INVESTMENT STRATEGY BRIEF

We look beyond the midterm elections to artificial intelligence’s continuing influence on the economy and markets. We revisit capabilities, adoption, and investment spending, along with the questions surrounding financing, power, productivity, and profits. 

WATCH

More Insights

Weekly Market Perspectives

October 16, 2026

Equities fell last week as renewed inflation pressure and Middle East uncertainty outweighed encouraging bank earnings. September's hotter CPI left the Fed's next move unclear, even as the big banks pointed to solid consumer and business activity.

Article

Financing the AI Buildout: How Is the Growth Being Funded? Who Bears the Risk?

Market Sight | Lines

We recently explored how artificial intelligence is advancing through competition and innovation, as well as the opportunities and risks created by its rapid adoption. In this week's Sight|Lines, we shift our focus to the capital financing AI's growth. We examine how companies are funding data centers, computing infrastructure, and power investment, who is providing that capital, and why understanding financing structures is just as important as understanding AI's long-term potential when evaluating investment opportunities.

Article

Stifel Bits

2%: The increase in overall median net worth between 2022 and 2025, according to a Federal Reserve study.

4,400-4,700 years: The estimated age of a shipwreck discovered off the coast of Türkiye, which archaeologists say is the world’s oldest.

Article

Financial Services and the Midterms​

Potomac Perspective 

We have also updated our thoughts on the state of the midterms. Our base case remains: The House is likely to flip, while the Republicans still maintain a slim advantage to retain the Senate (an admittedly nonconsensus view). In the Senate, Democrats lead the polls in enough races to win, but several of the leads are within the margin of error. We question whether they will hold up.

October 14, 2026

Article

Stifel Bits

$105.6 billion: The size of the U.S. trade deficit in August, up 13.7% from July to its highest level in more than a year, driven by higher semiconductor, crude oil, and gold imports.

350,000: The expected cap on the number of hybrid vehicles that can be imported from China to Europe per year.

Article

Doing Business in Space: Six Areas of This New Economy

My team and I regularly publish our long-term investment themes to help investors understand how changes in the world may create investment opportunities over time. One of our subthemes, Space Race, sits within Productive Competition, reflecting our view that rivalry can drive innovation and create value for consumers and the economy. Space is one area where such competition is on display.

Article

Numerous Crosscurrents in a Resilient Economy and Market

INVESTMENT STRATEGY BRIEF

We unpack numerous crosscurrents in the current environment, including Iran/oil prices, inflation/Federal Reserve policy, fiscal trajectory/elevated rates, and artificial intelligence infrastructure/deployment. 

Video

Stifel Bits

The lines between the traditional growth and value story have blurred. Over the last 12 months through September, the Bloomberg 1000 Value Index gained 18.9%, compared with 13.8% for its growth counterpart. Some of that reflects where the year started: Growth stocks entered 2026 carrying higher valuations and greater expectations, leaving less room for upside surprises and more sensitivity to disappointments.

Article

The Fed Raises Rates to Combat Inflation

Market Sight | Lines

After cutting rates six times across 2024 and 2025, the Federal Reserve reversed course this week with a 0.25% rate hike as higher oil prices and renewed inflation pressures complicated the path back to 2%. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we break down the Fed’s decision, what the latest economic projections reveal, and why higher-for-longer rates may remain a key theme for investors.

Article

September in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

The S&P 500 was little changed in September, leaving year-to-date gains near 12%. Performance was narrow, with artificial intelligence-driven technology and semiconductor stocks leading the market, while rate-sensitive sectors, smaller companies, and large value stocks lagged.

Article

Stifel Bits

A viral debate has erupted over whether bringing an iced coffee to an interview sends the wrong message. I’m going to settle this for my fellow Gen Zers: Don’t bring one. Have it beforehand at a café across the street, then throw it out on your way in. Don’t bring it into the lobby or the interview room. No one likes a wet handshake.

Article

Data Center Legislation

Potomac Perspective

The Senate might consider data center legislation before it leaves Washington to campaign for the upcoming midterms. We are skeptical about the prospects for the Ratepayer Protection Act (RPA). If we are right and the Senate blocks the bill, then it could reemerge in the lame duck session of Congress. However, the potential output during the lame duck session will depend on the election results and might not be overly productive.

September 30, 2026

Article

Favorite 15

September Favorite 15

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief covering numerous crosscurrents in the current environment, including Iran/oil prices, inflation/Federal Reserve policy, fiscal trajectory/elevated rates, and artificial intelligence infrastructure/deployment. 

Article

Stifel Bits

If you were around in 2012, you may remember the Mayan calendar panic. Roughly one in 10 people worldwide thought December 21 could mark the end of the world. Spoiler alert: It didn’t.

Fast forward to today, and another prediction-heavy debate is everywhere. This time, it’s – artificial intelligence.

Article

Fed Raises Rates in September and Signals Potentially More Hikes to Come

Economic Insight 

In a highly anticipated move, the Federal Reserve opted to raise rates 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 3.75-4.00% at its September meeting, the first rate increase since 2023.

Video

Numerous Pressures Push Interest Rates Higher

Market Sight | Lines

Long-term interest rates have moved higher, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a level last seen nearly two decades ago, alongside similar moves across Europe and Japan. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we discuss what’s driving longer-term yields higher, the growing role of the term premium, and what it could mean for investors going forward.

Article

Robust August Jobs Data Highlights Still Solid Labor Market

Economic Insight

A surprisingly strong read on August job creation coupled with upward revisions to previous months’ data still suggests a solid baseline for labor market conditions continuing to add support for the consumer despite ongoing challenging market conditions and elevated price pressures.

Video

Stifel Bits

$4.76 billion: U.S. box office ticket sales from May through Labor Day this year, reaching a new record.

6.7 million: The expected attendance at this year’s Oktoberfest festivities in Munich.

3.4%: The annual August consumer price index inflation rate, with gasoline prices 27.4% higher than a year ago.

Article

Fall Forecast: Shutdown, CLARITY Act, Russia Sanctions, and (maybe) a Tax Bill​

Potomac Perspective 

The House passed a spending bill that will fund the government through December 11. In doing so, it finished most of the legislative business through the November midterms. We look at the few matters that might be considered by Congress in September as well as some items that we expect to be considered during the lame duck session.

September 3, 2026

Article

Stifel Bits

Candy stores are thriving across New York City thanks to the “lipstick effect,” where people skip big purchases but still splurge on affordable treats. It’s a strategy as old as Economy Candy, which pivoted from shoe and hat repairs to sweets during the Great Depression.

NASA just launched the Roman Space Telescope, a $4.3 billion bus-sized observatory that will explore planets, galaxies, and other mysteries of the universe. Great! But can’t we just leave the aliens alone? Has nobody seen Independence Day?

Article

August in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

U.S. equities closed in August near record highs as strong artificial intelligence-related earnings outweighed mid-month jitters over rising long-term yields and questions about the durability of AI spending.

Article

A New Chapter at the Fed: What Two Meetings Have Shown

Market Sight | Lines

Two meetings into Kevin Warsh’s tenure as Federal Reserve Chair, a new communication framework is beginning to take shape. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we discuss what the Fed’s reduced forward guidance, more visible internal debate, and evolving approach to policy communication could mean for investors.

Article

Coercive Diplomacy: The Managed Off-Ramp Is Proving Bumpy

Market Sight | Lines

Recent developments in the Middle East suggest the path to peace may be more complicated than it appears. In this Sight|Lines, we discuss why escalation and negotiation can be part of the same strategy, what coercive diplomacy means in practice, and why a Managed Off-Ramp remains the most likely outcome despite rising risks and uncertainty.

Article

Stifel Bits

70°F: The average sea-surface temperature across the world’s oceans on August 22, a new daily record.

101 games: The length of the losing streak of the Columbia High School football team in Huntsville, Alabama, which was recently snapped with a 41-14 victory.

Article

Asymmetry Between Gasoline and Oil Prices

Special Edition Economic Insight

Massive volatility in the global energy market is hurting American consumers as gasoline prices spiked to a four-year high of $4.56 a gallon in May.

Article

Where the Policy Action will be as Gridlock Takes Hold​

Potomac Perspective

The dog days of August may be providing a glimpse of what investors should expect following the midterm elections. The resulting gridlock is likely to mean that Congress will be limited in what it can pass. Instead, we expect the regulatory agencies and the Federal Reserve to be the venues where the policy action takes place.

August 24, 2026

Article

Stifel Bits

Big Food calls it a challenge while dietitians call it the whole point: consumers eating less. As GLP-1 medications reduce appetite and alter taste preferences, companies are introducing smaller portions, more protein, and comfort foods. JPMorgan estimates these drugs could eventually cut annual food and beverage sales by $30 billion to $55 billion.

A humanoid robot ran 100 meters in 9.39 seconds, beating Usain Bolt’s 9.58-second world record at Beijing’s World Humanoid Robot Games. The good news for humans: they still need a padded wall to stop.

Article

A Mid-Summer Update: The Middle East, AI, Fed Policy, Earnings & Market Dynamics

INVESTMENT STRATEGY BRIEF

We share a mid-summer update across five fronts: the path forward after the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, an economy resilient despite risks, a “higher for longer” rate backdrop, equity valuations and earnings in focus, and the long-term themes – led by artificial intelligence – defining the future.

Video

Economic Insight: Ongoing Elevated Inflation, Uneven Employment Momentum Complicates Potential Policy Reversal

Economic Insight

As expected, the Federal Reserve Board opted to leave policy unchanged last month at a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, now for the fifth consecutive meeting. The statement was also little changed with the Committee maintaining a relatively positive assessment of conditions in line with a modest, near 2% pace of activity January to June and a surprisingly resilient consumer, despite the conflict overseas. Inflation, however, remains alarmingly elevated, well above the Fed’s 2% target. 

Video

Stifel Bits

76.9°F: The average temperature in July for the contiguous U.S., breaking the record for the hottest month on record, previously set in July 1936.

406.320 mph: The speed achieved by British driver Andy Green in a car powered by two hydrogen internal combustion engines, setting the land-speed record for that vehicle category.

Article

Weak July Jobs Data Expected to Deepen Divide at Federal Reserve

Economic Insight

A disappointing decline in headline employment coupled with a waning trend pace of momentum underscores the still adequate but increasingly volatile and far from robust nature of the labor market, which continues to provide modest support to consumers, at least for now.

Video

Favorite 15

June Favorite 15

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief exploring how a U.S.-Iran agreement may shape our second half outlook, including a discussion about GDP growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, yields, equities, and why market performance may broaden.

Article

Stifel Bits

Apparently, saying “Google it” is starting to sound ... dated. Younger generations are increasingly saying “search it up” instead, reflecting a world where Google isn’t the only search engine anymore. It’s the linguistic equivalent of accidentally calling every game console “Nintendo.”

Article

Stifel Bits

Every summer we hand our incoming interns a pencil and a survey (just kidding, it’s just a survey link) and ask how the next generation spends, saves, and sees the world. Think of it as a sneak peek at tomorrow’s consumer.

So, here are some of the results.

Start with the wallet. Cash is practically extinct, and most would rather tap a phone than swipe a card. Yet this same crowd that lives on its devices still craves the human touch: two-thirds prefer shopping in-store, and a striking 91% wouldn’t want an AI bot as their primary doctor. Digital-first, not digital-only.

Article

The Warsh Fed’s Five Task Forces: A Balanced Review and Debate

Market Sight|Lines

The Federal Reserve is taking a closer look at itself. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, five task forces have been launched to review how the Fed measures the economy, manages its balance sheet, communicates with markets, and approaches inflation. In this Sight|Lines, we explore what these reviews could mean for monetary policy and why changes to Fed communication may matter most for investors.

Article

July in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

U.S. equities were choppy and two-sided in July. The S&P 500 started the month strong before pulling back, then rebounded into month-end to finish little changed.

Article

2026 Summer Intern Survey

We surveyed 150 of Stifel’s summer interns to learn more about the preferences, spending habits, and perceptions of the next generation of consumers. The survey questions were based largely around investment themes that we see influencing the direction of the economy and markets long term

Article

Stifel Bits

Wedding season is pricier than ever. The average U.S. wedding now runs about $34,000 – “I do” comes with a serious invoice. And multiply that across the calendar: roughly two million couples got married in the U.S. last year, fueling a wedding industry worth more than $65 billion.

The spending starts long before the big day. Guests now drop an average of $1,300 on a bachelorette party, up roughly $600 from 2019, and about one in 10 spend north of $3,000. That’s a lot of matching pajamas.

Article

Updated Midterm Election Outlook

Potomac Perspective 

With the midterm elections approaching, we thought it was time to provide an update. Our base case continues to be that Democrats will re-take the House and that Republicans will retain the Senate. We discuss what a Democratic win could mean for certain sectors and how policy may, or may not, change. Following that, we explain why we think a Democratic takeover of the House is likely, but by a smaller margin than has occurred in past elections. We also present our reasons why we think that Republicans are currently favored to win the Senate.

July 27, 2026

Article

Stifel Bits

200: The number of consecutive hours Figure’s humanoid robots operated while processing 250,000 packages without failure.

52 years: The age of Bangkok’s famous “forever soup,” a beef broth continuously simmered and replenished at Wattana Panich since 1974

Article

CLARITY Act, Community Bank Legislation, and Ratepayer Protect

Potomac Perspective 

In addition to working on another reconciliation bill and a stopgap funding bill for the fall, Congress is working on a cryptocurrency bill (yes, still!) and a community bank deregulatory bill. Despite some positive headlines about both bills, there are reasons to be skeptical about their prospects. Also, data centers and their impact on energy costs are getting more attention in the House. We are uncertain if legislation will pass in 2026, but the issue will stick around.

July 24, 2026

Article

Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators

Economic Insight: State of the Economy July 2026


Topline growth maintained an adequate 2% pace at the start of the year, propelled by positive investment flows, particularly within technology.

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives

Third Quarter | 2026

After an unsettled start to the year, the second quarter saw markets roar back – even as a new Federal Reserve chair, firmer inflation, and a fragile Middle East de-escalation reshaped the path for growth, rates, and returns. We examine how these forces are shaping our second-half outlook and what they could mean for investor positioning.

Article

NextGen Voices: Tom Michaud

Join us for a conversation with Tom Michaud, President and CEO of KBW, as he shares lessons from a four-decade-long career journey spanning from research analyst to CEO.

We’ll explore what it takes to stand out early, make smart career decisions, build meaningful relationships, and stay resilient through industry cycles.

From early missteps to defining career moments, Tom will offer an unfiltered perspective on building a lasting career.

Video

Political Considerations Re: Data Centers

Potomac Perspective

New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced a one-year moratorium on the construction of new “hyperscale” data centers. New York is the first state to impose such a ban, and it raises questions about whether other states will follow and what steps the federal government might take. In our view, state actions, like New York’s, are more likely than federal ones, even if Democrats sweep the midterm elections.

July 16, 2026

Article

Favorite 15

July Favorite 15

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief covering five fronts: the path forward after the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, an economy resilient despite risks, a “higher for longer” rate backdrop, equity valuations and earnings in focus, and the long-term themes – led by artificial intelligence – defining the future.

Article

Consumers Remain Resilient but Challenges Remain

Special Edition Economic Insight


The U.S. consumer continues to be resilient despite uncertainty and challenges in the economy. This is due, in good part, to decent labor market conditions. 

Article

Second-Quarter Earnings: Lofty Expectations

Market Sight|Lines

With stocks at record highs, earnings season is about to test whether corporate profits can keep pace with elevated expectations. In this week's Sight|Lines, we discuss why analysts are forecasting one of the strongest quarters of earnings growth in years – and why the bar is now much higher.

Article

Stifel Bits

Tom Michaud, CEO of Stifel’s Keefe, Bruyette & Woods subsidiary, isn’t worried. “I don’t care how much AI there is. It’s not going to replace a human being who understands the analysis and can give good advice,” he said in a discussion in our recent NextGen Voices webinar. “I’m using AI to make me smarter so I can still be that trusted advisor.” In other words, AI is the calculator, not the accountant – a tool that sharpens judgment rather than replacing it.

Article

June in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

U.S. equities pulled back, with the S&P 500 falling in June and slipping from record highs as a late-month sell-off in technology weighed on the cap-weighted index, offsetting strength in value, defensive, and smaller-cap areas of the market.

Article

Economic Insight LIVE Client Webinar

Economic Insight LIVE Replay

Watch Stifel’s Chief Economist, Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., as she presents her latest quarterly economic update.

Video

Possible Middle East Peace: Implications for Our Second Half Outlook

Investment Strategy Brief

We explore how a U.S.-Iran agreement may shape our second half outlook, including a discussion about GDP growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, yields, equities, and why market performance may broaden.

Video

Stifel Bits

2: The number of 0.25% rate hikes investors expect from the Federal Reserve between now and March.

16: The minimum age the UK will require for accessing major social media platforms, starting early next year.

Article

Our Second Half Outlook: The Rewiring of Growth Creates Some Heat

Market Sight | Lines 

We updated our outlook for the remainder of the year. We keep the constructive base case from Outlook 2026 intact – a resilient economy and broadening artificial intelligence capex cycle still support growth and earnings – but raise our core PCE forecast to 2.75%-3.25% and our 10-year Treasury range to 4.25%-4.75% as we now expect the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh to hold steady in a “Higher for Longer” environment

Article

Fed Holds Rates Steady in June

Economic Insight

As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to hold rates steady in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting.

Video

Potomac Perspective

June 17, 2026

A bicameral agreement on a housing bill seems to lean towards the House’s version of the legislation. This is a positive for the build-to-rent sector. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act also includes regulatory relief for the manufactured housing industry and some modest changes to community bank regulation. Despite the rhetoric, the bill is unlikely to have a material impact on housing prices in the near-term.

Article

Interest Rate Worries: Higher for Longer?

Market Sight|Lines

The case for “higher for longer” interest rates is strengthening. Firming inflation, a resilient job market, and mounting government debt are putting upward pressure on rates and complicating the Federal Reserve’s path forward. We break down the data driving this shift – and the potential implications for growth and equity market volatility.

Article

A Closer Look at the U.S. Debt Burden

Special Edition Economic Insight


The U.S. debt burden has grown to $39 trillion, surpassing another grim milestone only five months after passing $38 trillion. The massive growth in the U.S. government’s debt load ̶ which is adding $1 trillion every 163 days, running annual budget deficits of near $2 trillion, and a deficit to GDP ratio of 6.0% ̶ appears to be unsustainable. 

Article

The State of the U.S. Agricultural Sector

The State of the U.S. Agricultural Sector

Agriculture accounted for nearly 7% of the U.S. economy just 25 years ago but is currently only around 4.5%.

Article

Stifel Bits

Want to stay hip? Same. Here’s the newest thing on the TikTok block as reported by the New York Times: mogging. It’s Gen Alpha slang for completely outshining someone – whether it’s looks, talent, or just winning the group photo. If you got “mogged,” someone clearly stole the spotlight. Harsh? Maybe. Funny? Unfortunately, yes.

Article

Supply and Demand Are Both Keeping Inflation in Focus

Market Sight | Lines

Inflation has eased from its post-pandemic highs, but it remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. We examine why inflation is harder to read, complicating the Fed’s policy path, and keeping investors focused on the risk of higher-for-longer rates.

Article

May in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

Resilient earnings, easing Middle East tensions, and renewed artificial intelligence enthusiasm extended the U.S. equity rally to nine straight weeks, even with sticky inflation and an increasingly divided Federal Reserve.

Article

Stifel Bits

Recruiters don’t just want resumes anymore – they want AI magic tricks. From marketing to venture capital, candidates are now expected to use tools like Claude Code live in interviews. Building dashboards, cleaning data, and automating tasks on the spot is the new workplace flex. Forget “Where do you see yourself in five years?” Just vibe code.

Article

Favorite 15

May Favorite 15

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing how artificial intelligence, earnings resilience, and steady consumer activity continue to support growth, while firmer inflation, higher Treasury yields, fiscal concerns, and geopolitical risks create a narrower margin for error. 

Article

Geopolitical Risk as a New Normal: Investing in a More Fragmented World

Market Sight | Lines

Geopolitical risk is becoming a more persistent force shaping markets, supply chains, inflation, and corporate strategy. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we discuss why we believe investors should focus less on predicting the next event and more on building portfolios around quality, diversification, pricing power, and resilience.

Article

A Managed Off-Ramp Takes Shape: Markets, Inflation, and the Fed

Market Sight|Lines

After nearly four months of fighting, the U.S. and Iran have agreed to a framework. Markets responded quickly: oil fell, equities hit record highs, and Treasury yields and inflation expectations eased. We analyze the immediate impact across oil, stocks, and rates, examine shifting inflation expectations, and discuss the implications for the Federal Reserve’s first policy decision this week.

Article

Stifel Bits

Remember when the day’s biggest stress was your Wordle score? NBC just said “hold my coffee” and turned it into a primetime game show. Savannah Guthrie will host, while the rest of us relive the emotional damage of family Wordle group chats. If you know, you know.

The green energy race now includes solar, wind, nuclear, and even kelp. Scientists are exploring seaweed as a biofuel for planes and ships, which still rely on oil. Boats may run on kelp before we get self-tying shoes. Priorities, people

Article

Elevated Risks to Employment and Inflation amid International Uncertainty and Conflict Complicate Outlook for Policy

Economic Insight

As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to hold rates steady in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its April meeting. Several members, however, advocated for replacing the existing easing bias in the statement with a neutral policy stance, signaling the Fed’s next move could equally be a rate cut or rate hike.

Video

Allocation Insights

2Q 2026 Allocation Insights

The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.0% annualized pace in Q1 2026, supported by resilient
consumer spending and continued strength in artificial intelligence-related investment.
Despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East and a sharp rise in crude oil prices since the start of
the year, we expect full-year growth to remain within our initial 1.75%-2.50% range. 

Article

Revised Housing Legislation

Potomac Perspective

The House could vote next week on a revised housing bill. The updated bill includes a restriction, favored by the Trump administration, to limit the ownership of single-family homes by institutional investors. It is also more flexible on build-to-rent (BTR) than is the Senate’s housing bill.

May 15, 2026

Article

Senate Banking Committee Advances Crypto Bill

Potomac Perspective 

The Senate Banking Committee approved the CLARITY Act, 15-9. Two committee Democrats joined all 13 Republicans in advancing the bill to the Senate floor. The vote was clearly a positive for the bill’s prospects, but it also carried some warning signs. The bill’s prospects improved, but we think by less than what others perceive to be the case.

May 15, 2026

Article

Artificial Intelligence: From Promise to Measured Impact

Market Sight | Lines

AI is transitioning from a long-term investment theme to a measurable driver of markets and the economy. Capex is surging, earnings are strengthening, and AI-related investment is showing up in GDP.

Article

Stifel Bits

China’s $1 billion fix for aging infrastructure: 8,500 artificial intelligence robots that open control boxes, spot electrical leaks, and handle daily maintenance … basically a tireless robot workforce that never calls in sick or asks for overtime. Yay for productivity?

With AI everywhere and nonstop headlines about robots “taking jobs,” it’s easy for graduating students to feel doomed before their first LinkedIn post. But fear not: There are still places where college grads are actually landing real, well‑paying jobs that haven’t been outsourced to our future robot managers.

Article

Gaming Out the CLARITY Act Markup

Potomac Perspective 

The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to mark up cryptocurrency legislation (the CLARITY Act) on Thursday. Despite efforts to reach a compromise on the Stablecoin yield issue, as well as other matters, we doubt that there is sufficient bipartisan support to pass the legislation through the full Senate.

May 12, 2026

Article

Trump Goes to China, Renewed Push for Housing Bill

Potomac Perspective

Washington has a busy week on tap. We discuss our expectations for Trump’s trip to China, a renewed focus on housing legislation, as well as the possibility that a gas tax holiday might pass. We also follow up on today’s earlier note on the CLARITY Act.

May 12, 2026

Article

AI and the Future of Work: Efficiency, Demand, and the Jevons Effect

Market Sight|Lines

Better steam engines increased, rather than reduced, coal use – an example of the Jevons paradox. With artificial intelligence, the same dynamic may apply, potentially driving greater demand for analysis, coding, drafting, design, service, and research.

Article

Stablecoin Proposal Doesn't Change the Outlook and the SEC's Reporting Proposal

Potomac Perspective

A proposed compromise on the Stablecoin yield issue won the general support of the crypto industry, but the banking sector said, “not enough.” We don’t think that the compromise improves the CLARITY Act’s prospects, and we continue to believe that it has an approximately 40% chance of passing in 2026. The SEC has proposed new rules that would allow publicly traded companies to file reports with the Commission on a semi-annual basis rather than quarterly. As expected, the switch would be voluntary, and we expect that most companies will continue to issue quarterly reports.

Article

Stifel Bits

10,000: The approximate number of new exoplanet candidates uncovered from NASA telescope data.

Article

Fed Holds Rates Steady in April

Economic Insight


As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to hold rates steady in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday. Furthermore, while remaining relatively positive regarding the current state of the economy despite the international conflict, the statement noted a growing concern regarding inflation, with several members in favor of replacing the easing bias with a more neutral stance. At the very least, a cohort of dissents sends a signal to both the market and new leadership that many agree the data do not support any additional accommodation at this point, and furthermore, any push to implement such will potentially face fierce opposition.

Video

An Update on Private Credit

Market Sight | Lines

Private credit has grown rapidly into a $1.8 trillion market. Recently, there’s been a focus on defaults and increasing redemption requests from private credit. While pockets of stress are emerging in select industries, we see no evidence of broad deterioration or systemic risk. We break down what’s driving the concern and what investors should be watching next. 

Article

April in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

A resilient U.S. economy, strong earnings, and a cease fire in the Middle East helped the S&P 500 to a new all-time high despite persistent inflation pressures and an increasingly divided Federal Reserve. 

Article

Stifel Bits

20%: The percentage of Gen Z students who are searching for scholarships on TikTok at least once a week.

14,000 miles: The record for the longest trip on a three-wheeled vehicle, recently achieved by two guys who drove a Reliant Robin car from London to the southern tip of Africa, passing through 22 countries.

Article

Federal Reserve March Meeting Recap and Update on Member Composition

Economic Insight 

Even before the Iranian crisis, the Fed faced a high bar to justify further easing absent a meaningful rise in unemployment or slowdown in inflation, though a more dovish Chair could push through one additional cut this year.

Article

The Kevin Warsh Nomination: The American Process Is Working

Market Sight | Lines

Under Kevin Warsh’s leadership, the Federal Reserve would likely offer less "prepackaged" forward guidance, requiring investors to interpret inflation, growth, and policy in real time. This approach could result in speedier price discovery and a sturdier market structure over time, even if it leads to a modestly higher term and risk premia in the near term.

Article

Stifel Bits

3,476,721: The number of Americans named Michael, making it the most popular male name in the U.S.

1,765,503: The number of Americans named Mary, making it the most popular female name in the U.

Article

Headwinds & Tailwinds in 2026: Middle East Conflict and Artificial Intelligence

Investment Strategy Brief

We discuss environment headwinds and tailwinds in 2026, especially around the Middle East Conflict and Artificial Intelligence.

Video

Favorite 15

April Favorite 15

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing environmental headwinds and tailwinds in 2026, especially around the Middle East conflict and artificial intelligence.

Article

Stifel Bits

Alright Citrini, we get it. The Strait of Hormuz is confusing, so CitriniResearch sent “Analyst #3” with gear, cigars, cash, and Zyn. Mission complete, “findings” are out there. Most important takeaway: “#3” made it home safe. 

Survivor meets Chopped? I’m listening. Chopped Castaways is a new series hosted by Ted Allen, in which chefs cook over open fires on a remote island, building kitchens from scratch. Honestly … Food Network is doing the most to keep us entertained. 

Article

Warsh Hearing and the Start of Reconciliation

Potomac Perspective 

Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing and the Senate’s work on a reconciliation bill are the two big policy events of this week. 

Warsh’s main audiences will be the president and the markets rather than the Senate. He is likely to be confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chairman although the timing remains uncertain.

April 20, 2026

 

Article

Potomac Perspective

Potomac Perspective 

President Trump’s threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could simply be a way for Trump to deflect blame for the economy onto Powell. We explain that although a hearing date has been set for Kevin Warsh’s nomination to be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve Board, an ongoing investigation into the Fed and current Chairman Powell will continue to delay his confirmation.

April 15, 2026

Article

Despite March Employment Rebound, Ample Uncertainty is Likely to Keep the Federal Reserve Sidelined

Economic Insight


While there was a welcome rebound in March payrolls after earlier weakness in February, the trend pace of job creation remains a modest 68,000. Although, given the aged nature of the recovery, technology adoption, and a reduction in international labor flows, the breakeven rate for job creation is markedly lower than in years past. Of course, there remain further downside risks to job creation and the broader economy, particularly as inflation remains elevated with further upside potential given the ongoing conflict overseas as the threat of higher energy prices seeps into the broader economy.

Video

A First Look at the 2026 Midterms

Potomac Perspective 

The 2026 primary season is in full swing, so it’s time to take our first look at the midterm elections. The House is likely to flip to the Democrats. In the Senate, Republicans are currently favored to keep the Senate, but a shift in voter sentiment in key states could flip that chamber, too.

April, 6 2026

Article

Global Impacts of the U.S./Israel-Iran Conflict

Market Sight | Lines

When it comes to peace in the Middle East, the U.S. says we’re negotiating, and Iran is denying it all. While peace talks may be possible, it is important to prepare for an extended conflict. Check out SightLines to better understand how a prolonged conflict may impact our lives … and our markets.

Article

Iran Conflict: What Happened, and What It Means for Market

Market Sight|Lines

For months, U.S. and Iranian representatives have engaged in on-again, off-again indirect nuclear negotiations, with Oman playing a key intermediary role and the latest round taking place in Geneva. President Trump continued to signal that military action remained on the table if diplomacy failed to deliver meaningful progress.

March 12, 2026

Article

Stifel Bits

“I don’t have any ability to predict what stocks will do next week or next month, and
I will buy them if they’re cheap. I’ll buy a whole lot of them if they’re cheap, and I
think I really understand the business ... ”

– Famed investor Warren Buffett during a recent CNBC interview.

Article

The Fed Holds Rates Steady As Financial Conditions Tighten And Markets Further React to the Conflict

Market Sight|Lines

The Federal Reserve held rates steady amid rising uncertainty tied to the escalating Middle East conflict, signaling concern over higher inflation driven by surging energy prices. Markets have reacted with increased volatility, as oil and gas prices spike and equities, especially outside the U.S., decline. 

March 20, 2026

Article

Iran War: Tactical Considerations and Four Possible Scenarios

Investment Strategy Brief

Day-to-day attention on the U.S./Israel war with Iran naturally focuses on tactical issues, including oil prices and economic/market implications. We unpack these tactical considerations and also offer four possible scenarios for an end to this war.

Video

Stifel Bits

60: The approximate amount of ski resorts in the U.S. West that will close early or never opened this year due to the mild winter.

Article

Increased Headline Risk Looming from Reconciliation Pay-fors

Potomac Perspective 

A second reconciliation bill might be back on the table as Republicans figure out how to approve additional funds for defense and reopen the Department of Homeland Security. If Republicans pursue reconciliation, then additional tax cuts could also be on the table. So could offsets.

April 1, 2026

Article

March in Review

Monthly Market Perspectives

The conflict with Iran has reignited inflation concerns and forced markets to rapidly reprice policy expectations. The result was a surge in energy prices, a broad global selloff in equities, and rising yields.

Article

Iran Conflict: The Hidden Shortages That May Matter Most

Supply disruptions often appear isolated at first, but shortages that begin upstream tend to deliver broader and more delayed economic damage than investors initially expect. While the Iran conflict has put oil in focus, a range of upstream inputs, many of which sit at the front of long production chains, are also being affected. In this Sight|Lines, we highlight where less obvious pressures may emerge and what investors should watch as these disruptions move downstream.

Article

Favorite 15

March Favorite 15

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing tactical and strategic considerations around the U.S./Israel war with Iran. We also offer four possible scenarios for an end to this war.

Article

Crypto Update

Potomac Perspective 

The prospects for passing the CLARITY Act have improved as a compromise regarding the Stablecoin yield issue may have opened the door to a markup in the Senate Banking Committee. Despite our increased optimism for the bill’s chances, it still faces an uphill climb. We discuss some of the hurdles in its path.

March 31, 2026

Article

Economic Insight LIVE

Economic Insight LIVE

Join Economic Insight LIVE, with Lindsey Piegza, April 9, where Dr. Piegza offers her quarterly economic outlook and views on the current environment.

Video

Stifel Bits

Why didn’t anyone tell me (vibe) coding was easy? It looks like junior engineers just ask AI to do everything – until you see the results. A CodeRabbit report reviewing 470 pull requests found AI‑generated code had 1.7 times more issues than human work. So maybe just “telling AI what to do” isn’t quite the move yet.

Article

Economic Insight

Now in its third week, the Iranian conflict continues to weigh on markets as investors and everyday consumers brace for the uncertainty of war. The conflict will surely exacerbate higher prices and supply disruptions that were already well rooted due to significant recent revisions to international policy, including tariffs.

Article

Powell, Housing Policy, and Changes in Bank Capital Rules

Potomac Perspective

A federal judge quashed grand jury subpoenas of the Federal Reserve Board, which were part of the criminal probe of Chairman Jerome Powell. The Justice Department immediately appealed the decision. This could delay the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman and leave Powell in place for the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

March 16, 2026

Article

Stifel Bits

1 hour: The delivery time that Amazon is planning for hundreds of locations. The cost? $9.99 for Prime members and $19.99 for non-Prime members.

Article

Stifel Bits

$12 trillion: The projected annual global retail spending power of Gen Z by 2030.

Article

Iran Escalation: What it Means for Markets and Investors

Stifel Client Webinar

The geopolitical landscape fundamentally shifted over the weekend following coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes (Operations "Epic Fury" and "Roaring Lion") against Iranian military targets. With Iran retaliating across the Gulf and disruption risk elevated around the Strait of Hormuz, markets are reacting – particularly across energy, rates, and broader risk sentiment.

Video

Economic Insights

A weaker-than-expected February employment report, following a stronger-than-expected rise in January, leaves growing uncertainty regarding the underlying trajectory of labor market conditions and will no doubt perpetuate the divide at the Fed. After all, while job creation has become increasingly volatile month-to-month, reflecting in good part a prolonged government shutdown and extreme weather conditions, the unemployment rate remains impressively low, and earnings growth is solid.

Video

Artificial Intelligence in 2026: Opportunities, Risks, and Fears

Investment Strategy Brief

We discuss artificial intelligence optimism, raising valuations, and volatility driven by investors trying to gauge winners and losers over the long term. In this pursuit, investors have begun to “sell now, ask questions later,” setting aside fundamentals.

Video

Geopolitical Dashboard: A Fragmented World

The world is shifting from an era of globalization to one marked by increased localization and protectionism, increasing geopolitical risks, and uncertainty. The Stifel Geopolitical Dashboard aims to identify and assess the likelihood and investment considerations of key geopolitical risks and events that have the potential to create market volatility over the next three to five years.

Article

Allocation Insights

Q1 | 2026

Structural forces are reshaping the economy, with AI influencing productivity, capital investment, and market leadership. As leadership evolves and broadens, diversification across regions, sectors, and styles becomes increasingly important.

Article

From Vision to Value: Our Long-Term Investment Themes

Long-Term Investment Themes

Artificial Intelligence remains a foundational, cross-cutting theme across our framework. In our latest refresh, we add two new sub-themes: Continental Shift, reflecting a push toward domestic capacity and nearshoring to improve resilience and secure critical inputs; and Defense Modernization, reflecting sustained investment in next-generation defense, as geopolitical competition and conflict intensify.

Article

AI Optimism Abounds, but Some Industries Are Punished with Indiscriminate Selling Market Sight|Lines

Market Sight|Lines

AI is reshaping workflows across industries, boosting productivity and long-term potential. But as new capabilities emerge, markets often shift to a “sell now, ask questions later” mindset. In volatile moments, fundamentals and disciplined process should guide investment decisions. We discuss what’s behind this volatility and the investor considerations it raises from here.

Article

Outlook 2026: Rewiring Growth Investment Strategy Brief

Investment Strategy Brief

As we begin the next quarter century, we’re mindful of risks like geopolitical tensions and elevated equity valuations, even as we’re optimistic about the increased productivity from artificial intelligence. In this month’s Investment Strategy Brief, we look back at 2025 and review our outlook for 2026, including the impact of AI, the economy, and the markets.

Video

Outlook 2026: Rewiring Growth Spotlight No. 1: A Brief Summary

Market Sight|Lines

As is our practice at the start of each year, we released our annual outlook report, Outlook 2026: Rewiring Growth. The report brings together a series of articles designed to help investors look back at the forces that shaped 2025 and look forward to the themes, risks, and opportunities that may define the year ahead. You can read the full report, watch a video summary, or join our upcoming client webinar, but in this week’s Sight|Lines, we offer a brief overview of the publication and its major components.

Article

U.S. Reshoring and Nearshoring: A Sustainable Economic Tailwind

Market Sight | Lines

Investors are increasingly worried about market levels and the possibility of an artificial intelligence (AI) “bubble.” Despite the worries, however, during earnings calls and elsewhere, executives are highlighting a powerful, long-term positive theme: making more in America. What began as a reaction to pandemic-era disruptions has evolved into a structural reindustrialization cycle that will shape U.S. investment, employment, and infrastructure in the decades ahead.

Article

NextGen Investor Handbook

Introducing the NextGen Investor Handbook, a practical and engaging resource designed to help recent grads and young professionals navigate life-changing financial decisions and milestones, including budgeting, saving, investing, and starting a family. Flip through the handbook and take the first step toward building your financial future!

Article

Artificial Intelligence in the Digital Realm: Security and Finance

Market Sight|Lines

Artificial intelligence (AI) is spreading fastest in areas already digital by their nature. In cybersecurity, AI is being deployed to detect anomalies, manage threats, and automate responses. In financial services, firms use AI to improve trading, customer engagement, and compliance. We discuss AI applications in security and finance.

Article

Learning From Next Generation Investors: Stifel’s 2025 Intern Survey

Market Sight|Lines

We’ve just completed our 2025 Intern Survey, providing insights into the attitudes and preferences of this next generation. We discuss these preferences as well as the risks and opportunities for the next generation of investors.

Article

The World in 2035: From Vision to Value

Throughout history, even the most brilliant minds have made predictions that have not quite stood the test of time. Yet, for investors, anticipating the megatrends influencing the economy and markets is crucial for successful investing. This year, we set out to imagine how our long-term investment themes could shape the world of 2035, exploring their transformative potential. Here are 10 ways how the world may be different over the next decade.

Article

Caution or Optimism: Can AI Counter a Potential Economic Slowdown?

April Investment Strategy Brief 

We delve into continued inflationary pressures, Fed policy, and the health of the U.S. consumer. We also examine the rally in commodity prices, the global election supercycle, and related investment implications.

Article

An Update – From Vision to Value: Our Long-Term Investment Themes

Market Sight|Lines

Recently, we've covered short-term topics, but it's crucial for investors to keep an eye on the long-term changes in our world. Let’s dive into our long-term investment themes, highlighting value-creation opportunities that will shape the way we live, interact, and consume goods and services.

Article

State of the Union Takeaways

Potomac Perspective

President Trump’s State of the Union (SOTU) address was full of political theatre but included fewer economic policy proposals than we were expecting. The absence of some proposals was notable. We review a few of the speech’s economic policy proposals and discuss the prospects for their enactment. As is typically the case, the SOTU was about political messaging. The reality is that few of these ideas will be enacted ahead of the midterm elections

February 25, 2026

Article

AI Will Change Our Future; It’s Transforming Our World Today

April 12, 2024

The strong stock market results this year celebrate the potential for artificial intelligence (AI). And while big, tech-oriented companies are driving this performance, the opportunity goes well beyond tech-oriented stocks. We review the concept of AI and zoom in on some real-life uses that are already transforming our world today.

Article

INVESTORʼS HANDBOOK FOR ELECTION YEARS

In each election year, the prevailing narrative seems to suggest that our country stands at a crossroads with the potential for significant consequences. This often creates uncertainty for investors and leads to market volatility. The temptation to react impulsively to political changes can be strong, but amid this uncertainty, a disciplined and long-term approach to investing becomes paramount. 

Brochure

Market Pulse

Global markets opened the week risk-off as the U.S.-Israel military operation against Iran escalated into a widening regional conflict. Stay current on market developments with timely commentary.

Article

FIVE TIPS TO NAVIGATE A BEAR MARKET

When stocks enter a bear market, dropping more than 20% from their recent peak, losses may feel like they’ll never end. Some investors even panic and make irrational investment decisions that may jeopardize long-term goals and objectives. Here are five tips to help you navigate a bear market.

Article

UAE Leaves OPEC: The Rising Role of the U.S. in Global Energy Markets

Market Sight | Lines

The UAE’s exit from OPEC underscores a longer-term decline in the cartel’s influence, as rising U.S. energy dominance and geopolitical tensions continue to reshape power dynamics in global oil markets.

Article

The Big, Beautiful Bill

Potomac Perspective Podcast 

President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” takes shape, as Congress prepares to consider proposed tax breaks and spending cuts. In the latest episode of Potomac Perspective, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner and co-host Neil Shapiro discuss the latest from Capitol Hill, including a possible crack in the Senate’s bipartisan crypto coalition.

March 5, 2025 

Podcast

Economic Insight

As expected, the Fed opted to lower the federal funds target rate 25 basis points (bps) this week to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the second consecutive reduction this year and now marking 150 bps in cuts since September of last year.

Video