Weekly Market Perspectives

July 22, 2024

The rotation in U.S. equity markets that began following the latest inflation print on July 11 continued into last week with small capitalization and equal-weighted benchmarks outperforming mega cap technology companies.

Article

The Speed of Market Rotation: Staying the Course

July 19, 2024

We further discuss the potential for a stock market rotation and use the market shifts of the last
week to illustrate how quickly a meaningful rotation can occur.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

8.5 million: The amount of Windows devices that were affected from CrowdStrike’s botched software update.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

July 23, 2024

On Sunday, President Joe Biden did what many had expected and dropped his reelection bid. Vice President Kamala Harris followed that by announcing that she will run for the Democratic nomination. We think there is a good chance that she could effectively wrap up this process within the next 48 hours. The nomination is Harris’s to lose.

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Potomac Perspective

July 19, 2024

We have reached critical mass. Based on developments of the past few days, we now think it is more likely than not that President Joe Biden will drop out of the presidential race. Vice President Kamala Harris is his most likely successor as the Democratic Party’s nominee.

Email

The New Consumer: Findings from our 2024 Summer Intern Survey

In the second year of our intern survey, over 150 of Stifel’s summer interns offered insight into their preferences, spending habits, and perceptions of the world.

Find out what our interns think about artificial intelligence, investing, big ticket purchases, climate change, and more.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Elon Musk dodged a $500 million lawsuit claiming he stiffed Twitter employees on severance, proving even legal battles can be rocket science.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

July 16, 2024

The selection of Senator J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) to be Donald Trump’s running mate is yet another sign that this isn’t your father’s Republican Party. Senator Vance’s nomination probably says more about the long-term direction of the GOP than it does about this election, and it’s a move away from capital and towards labor.

Article

Economic Insight LIVE webinar Replay

Q2 2024 

Economic Insight LIVE, with Lindsey Piegza, where Dr. Piegza offers her quarterly economic outlook and views on the current environment.

Video

Potomac Perspective

July 15, 2024

The shooting of Donald Trump will likely increase his chances of winning the fall election. The scale of political boost he will receive, however, remains uncertain. These events will also freeze Democratic efforts to replace President Biden as their party’s nominee. Near term, these factors point to a risk-on trade.

Article

Favorite 15

June 2024

A selection of slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing what's in focus for the second half of 2024, including elections, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Time to make up? Boeing has agreed to repurchase key supplier Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. in an all-stock deal worth $4.7 billion, reversing a split dating back almost two decades. That’s the Spirit!

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

July 8, 2024

This could be make or break week for Joe Biden’s campaign.  If he can survive it without significant defections from key Democrats, we think that it is likely he will stay in the presidential race.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Amazon Prime Day will run July 16-17, and pink Stanley Quenchers will be sent all across the country.

Newsletter

Focus for the Second Half

June Investment Strategy Brief 

We discuss what’s in focus for the second half of 2024, including elections, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, a potential economic slowdown, and what these forces might mean for market performance going forward.

Video

June in Review

The S&P 500 rose 3.59% in June, recording several record highs driven by better-than-expected inflation readings, lower Treasury rates, and strong economic data. The consumer price index and producer price index reports were better than expected and added to the disinflation narrative.

Article

Potomac Perspective

July 2, 2024

Recently, the U.S. Supreme Court issued several decisions that could impact tax policy and economic regulation. We take a quick look at four important cases and discuss what these rulings could mean for future policy.

Email

Gauging Appropriate Policy Amid Potential Upside Risks to Inflation and a Higher Neutral Rate

July 1, 2024


While arguably rebalancing at a gradual pace in the aftermath of the fastest backup in rates in four decades, the expected slowdown in demand and overall impact on the U.S. labor market remains muted. Momentum is slowing in many key categories of economic activity, however, the readjustment remains less than anticipated.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

23: The number of sets of twins who graduated from a single Massachusetts middle school this month. They made up almost 10% of the graduating class.

Newsletter

From Vision to Value: Our Long-Term Investment Themes

Anticipating the megatrends influencing the economy and markets is a cornerstone for successful investing. That’s why our long-term investment themes consider how megatrends such as artificial intelligence, geopolitical tensions, and an aging population are presenting value-creation opportunities for long-term investors.

Article

INVESTORʼS HANDBOOK FOR ELECTION YEARS

In each election year, the prevailing narrative seems to suggest that our country stands at a crossroads with the potential for significant consequences. This often creates uncertainty for investors and leads to market volatility. The temptation to react impulsively to political changes can be strong, but amid this uncertainty, a disciplined and long-term approach to investing becomes paramount. 

Brochure

Potomac Perspective

June 28th, 2024

President Joe Biden continued the trend of incumbent Presidents stumbling in their first debate when running for reelection. Mr. Biden’s problem is that his performance reinforced voters’ worries about his age and ability to serve another term.

Article

One Headwind to AI Optimism: The Looming U.S. Fiscal Transition

June 28, 2024

We review the concept of Fiscal Transition and discuss the implications of the latest Congressional Budget Office budget update. 

Article

State of the Economy: Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators

June 24, 2024

A cooler-than-expected May inflation report following minimal improvement in April has reinforced the Fed’s position on the sidelines, now for the seventh consecutive meeting, with the Committee noting “modest” progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$19.9 trillion: The amount of wealth forecasted to be passed on by 2033 by about 155,000 individuals with a net worth of $30 million or more, according to London-based data firm Altrata.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

June 24, 2024

In this note, we look at several sectors that could be impacted by the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Populism continues to gain strength in both political parties, so a greater emphasis on industrial policy and central planning are the likely results no matter which candidate wins.

Email

The 2024 Global Election Supercycle: Implications for the U.S. Elections

June 21, 2024

We share a brief update on some elections around the world, and then discuss how these results may affect our internal relations, as well as potential implications for our U.S. elections later this year.

Article

Key Takeaways from the June Federal Open Market Committee Meeting: A Message of Patience for “Eventual” Easing

June 17, 2024

As expected, the Fed opted to keep rates unchanged in a range of 5.25% to 5.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting since September 2023. But while the policy announcement itself was uneventful, there were several key takeaways for investors desperately trying to gauge the outlook and expected timeline for any adjustment in policy.

Article

The Federal Reserve Sees Improving Inflation, Yet Signals Higher Rates Through 2024

June 14, 2024

We unpack the results of the Fed’s June 2024 meeting and the recently released Summary of Economic Projections.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

32%: The increase in morning commutes of 75 miles or more between a four-month period in 2023-24 and 2019-20 as many workers are now hybrid.

Newsletter

Favorite 15

May 2024

A selection of slides from our latest Investment Strategy Brief discussing how recent economic and market data continues to reflect a resilient economy and corporate profits. We discuss implications of market interest rates straying higher for longer.

Article

Tight Labor Market Conditions Overshadow Cooler Start to the Year

June 11, 2024

The U.S. economy slowed significantly across the first three months of 2024. While nominally still positive, GDP shed significant momentum from an earlier outsized increase of 4.1% in the second half of last year to just 1.3% in Q1.

Article

May in Review

The S&P 500 rose 4.96% in May, driven by lower Treasury rates, a still strong economy, and company earnings growth surprising to the upside. With 98% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported results, earnings are estimated to have grown 5.9% year over year, above the 3.4% estimate at the start of the quarter.

Article

The U.S. Dollar as the World’s Reserve Currency: Secure in the Near Term, But…

May 31, 2024

We discuss the U.S. dollar’s (USD) position as the world’s reserve currency and the risks, both near and longer term, to the USD’s reserve currency status.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Golden Goose, the luxury shoe brand known for selling sneakers with a lot of character, is reportedly making plans for an IPO in Milan at a €3.3 billion valuation.

Newsletter

Central Bank Policy Divergence

June 4, 2024

The latest bout of commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) members reiterated not just the Fed’s broader message of patience, but offered a clearer indication of how many more months of improved data are needed to justify a rate reduction.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

706: The number of people named Kyle that gathered recently in a city in Texas named Kyle.

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 31, 2024

A New York jury found former Donald Trump guilty of falsifying business records. We offer no opinion on the trial, the verdict, or the prospects regarding an inevitable appeal. Politically, we do not think the verdict changes the 2024 presidential race, nor do we believe that it will have a material impact on financial markets over the near term.

Article

Higher for Longer

May 2024

Recent economic and market data continue to reflect a resilient economy and corporate profits. We discuss the economic and market implications of market interest rates staying higher for longer.

Video

Inflation, the Federal Reserve, and Higher for Longer Trigger Weak April Market Performance

May 3, 2024

We review inflation, economic results, the Fed’s policy update, and how those forces influenced April market performance.

Article

Putting Behavioral Finance in the Palm of Your Hand: The Stifel Financial ID

May 10, 2024

We review the Stifel Financial ID, a behavioral finance model designed to help clients understand themselves and work more effectively with their Stifel Financial Advisor. 

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 31, 2024

A New York jury found former Donald Trump guilty of falsifying business records. We offer no opinion on the trial, the verdict, or the prospects regarding an inevitable appeal. Politically, we do not think the verdict changes the 2024 presidential race, nor do we believe that it will have a material impact on financial markets over the near term

Article

Learnings From the Stifel Blueprint Conference

May 24, 2024

Every year or so, Stifel wealth colleagues, Stifel leadership, and other industry professionals gather for our Blueprint conference. The agenda includes time for one-on-one discussions, small group engagement, larger breakout sessions, and a few “main stage” sessions where all participants gather to learn. We share some of our learnings from the 2024 Stifel Blueprint conference.

Article

The Federal Reserve Continues to Recommend Patience amid Uncertain Inflationary Pressures

May 21, 2024

Opting to keep rates on hold for the sixth consecutive meeting earlier this month, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a message of continued patience for policy easing – eventually – as the Committee awaits further evidence inflation is on a sustained downward trajectory toward 2%.

Article

Allocation Insights

Q2 2024

U.S. equity markets continue to ride a wave of optimism anchored on the strength of the U.S. economy and the potential of artificial intelligence. As we look forward to the rest of 2024, we challenge ourselves to think differently. Learn how we are positioning portfolios.

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 21, 2024 

After the close on Monday, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chairman Martin Gruenberg announced his willingness to step aside from his position once a successor is confirmed.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

872: The number of trading sessions through last Wednesday for the Dow to reach its latest 10,000-point milestone of 40,000.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

May 20, 2024

The House is scheduled to vote this week on two cryptocurrency bills, including one regarding central bank digital currencies. We do not expect either piece of legislation is likely to become law, but the votes on each bill are still important.

Email

Potomac Perspective

May 16th, 2024

A House hearing with the banking regulators did not provide any groundbreaking news on the Basel III Endgame proposal. It did, however, reinforce our view that the proposal could be significantly altered or even scrapped.

Article

Special Edition Economic Insights A Closer Look: Artificial Intelligence: Helpful or Harmful to Workers and Businesses?

May 13, 2024

While the earliest notable work in the field of AI dates back to the 1930s, it is only in the past few years that AI has captured public attention. However, what is it really? We rely on various technologies every day, including computers and smartphones, so what makes AI different or revolutionary?

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

63%: The percentage of U.S. workers that say they are satisfied with their job, the highest level recorded since the survey began in 1987, according to the Conference Board.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

May 10, 2024

An annual report on the financial condition of Social Security and Medicare forecasts the programs’ trust funds will cease to be fully funded by 2033 and 2036, respectively. Although that does not seem like much time to a lot of people, it is light years away for Congress. We don’t expect serious action to remedy the situation until at least after the 2028 elections.

Article

Weaker-Than-Expected Job Gains in April Boost Expectations for Rate Cuts

May 3, 2024

April nonfarm payrolls rose by 175,000, falling short of the 240,000 gain expected. While still broadly indicating tight conditions, the labor market appears to be cooling somewhat, resulting in some upward movement in the unemployment rate and more muted pressure on wages.

Video

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Not the interns! Tesla rescinded offers to interns three weeks before they were supposed to start.

Newsletter

April in Review

May 1, 2024

Markets fell in April as strong inflation dampened optimism of a Fed rate cut in June. Equities recovered some of their losses on stronger earnings, particularly from the “Magnificent Seven.”

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Chipotle customers are loyal! It has raised prices six times in the last three years, but the company reported this hasn’t dented demand.

Newsletter

A Scenario-Based Fed: What if Inflation Does Not Retreat as Expected?

April 29, 2024

The latest March Federal Open Market Committee forecast showed the majority of Fed officials anticipate three rate cuts by year-end. However, with inflation reversing its downward trajectory since the start of the year, Fed officials have dialed back expectations for rate cuts both in number and timing.

Article

Potomac Perspective

April 29, 2024

A Wall Street Journal article reports on possible actions that a future Trump administration might take vis-à-vis the Federal Reserve. We explain why we are skeptical that the courts would allow some of the proposals.

Email

The Protectionist Vote: How Are Elections Shaping Global Trade?

April 26, 2024

Earlier this year, we shared a view on how the 2024 election supercycle is bringing focus to an evolving world order, with the U.S. and China competing in what is increasingly a multipolar world. We continue the discussion, digging deeper into protectionism and the implications for global competition, China’s trade relations, and geopolitical hotspots.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Dubai saw streets transform into rivers following almost six inches of rain within 24 hours. The city typically receives 3.7 inches of rain in a given year, meaning almost two years’ worth of rain fell in just one day.

Article

Caution or Optimism: Can AI Counter a Potential Economic Slowdown?

April Investment Strategy Brief 

We delve into continued inflationary pressures, Fed policy, and the health of the U.S. consumer. We also examine the rally in commodity prices, the global election supercycle, and related investment implications.

Article

Favorite 15

April 2024

A selection of slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing continued inflationary pressures, Fed policy and the health of the U.S. consumer.

Article

Special Edition Economic Insight: A Closer Look: Disruptions and Costs of Shipping

April 22, 2024

Supply chains are back in focus after Dali, a massive 95,000-ton container ship, collided with the 1.6-mile Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on March 26. The bridge crosses the only water route in and out of the harbor where the port is located. Additionally, the 3,600 commercial trucks that crossed the bridge each day prior to the collapse have also been disrupted.

Article

First Quarter Earnings Season: Insights Into Forward Guidance

April 19, 2024

Earnings season, where companies report results for the previous quarter, provides views into recent results and company management’s forward guidance, or view as we look forward. We share a brief update as the first quarter 2024 earnings season begins.

Article

Part-time, Adjustments, Immigration Boost Employment Headline

The March employment report surged past expectations, reinforcing the notion of a solid labor market and complicating the outlook for a Fed seemingly desperate to cut rates. After all, coupled with inflation reversing course for the past three months, a tight jobs market provides little justification for a reduction in policy firming. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Costco is selling out of one-ounce 24-karat gold bars, leaving treasure hunters to settle for the next best thing: giant tubs of mixed nuts.

Article

Potomac Perspective

April 16, 2024 

The House could vote this week on a package of foreign aid bills. This vote represents the best chance of approving assistance for Israel and Ukraine. We think passage is likely, but not guaranteed. A House committee will mark up trade legislation this week which could eventually be included in year-end legislation.

Article

AI Will Change Our Future; It’s Transforming Our World Today

April 12, 2024

The strong stock market results this year celebrate the potential for artificial intelligence (AI). And while big, tech-oriented companies are driving this performance, the opportunity goes well beyond tech-oriented stocks. We review the concept of AI and zoom in on some real-life uses that are already transforming our world today.

Article

Potomac Perspective

April 10, 2024

Congress returns this week from its Easter break to a packed agenda. The first item Congress will work on this week, Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act reauthorization, will not have market implications.

Article

Robust Job Gains in March Complicate Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Pathway

April 8, 2024

March nonfarm payrolls rose by 303,000, reinforcing the notion of a tight labor market and solid economy, complicating the outlook for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. Coupled with unruly inflation pushing higher for the past two months, the likelihood of a change in policy, let alone of sizable downshift in rates, is becoming increasingly less likely.

Video

A Strong First Quarter 2024: We’re (Still) Watching for a Slowdown

April 5, 2024

The U.S. stock market posted strong first quarter results, riding a wave of optimism anchored in a still-strong economy and the potential of artificial intelligence. We review these strong first quarter results and the potential for cracks that may lead to a slowdown and a possible market pullback.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Last week, NATO – the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – celebrated 75 years of collective defense. Woohoo! So with this as a backdrop, we thought we’d dig into some geopolitical happenings and focus in on the Havana Syndrome. 

Newsletter

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

As the world marvels at the wonders of artificial intelligence, there’s a quirky tale lurking behind the scenes – AI’s demand for resources. Let’s briefly talk about the energy and water required to operate AI chat bots like ChatGPT.

Newsletter

Quarterly Market Perspectives

Q2 2024 

We review the prior quarter's capital market returns and economic developments in this context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

Potomac Perspective

April 2, 2024

Congress is out of town this week, but the wheels are moving to construct a foreign aid package that could pass the House later this month. Some conservative Republicans oppose providing more aid for Ukraine, but the House Republican leadership is looking to attach provisions, such as blocking the Biden administration’s liquefied natural gas export moratorium (which would be popular among conservatives), in order to secure Republican votes and repel any effort to remove Speaker Mike Johnson from the Speaker’s chair.

Article

March in Review

The S&P 500 set a record high, ending March up 3.22% and bringing its year-to-date return to 10.55%. Earnings for the S&P 500 were up 4.1% year over year versus the 1.5% expected before earnings season began.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Dell implemented a return-to-office mandate with the stipulation that remote employees are no longer eligible for promotions.

Newsletter

No March Change in Monetary Policy Will the Federal Reserve Paint Itself into a Corner?

March 25, 2024

Recent inflation reports disappointed to the upside, meaning inflation still hovers above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) 2% target. Despite this, as the Fed concluded its March meeting, it left monetary policy unchanged but continued to signal its intent to cut rates later in the year. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we unpack the results of this Fed meeting and assess the risk that the Fed may not be able to cut rates later this year if inflation remains elevated.

Article

Key Takeaways from the March Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision

March 25, 2024

Without convincing proof of inflation retreating, the Committee, he said, is in no rush to initiate rate cuts, setting the stage for a prolonged position on the sidelines.

Article

Potomac Perspective

March 22, 2024 

As the week draws to a close, it appears Congress will avoid a partial government shutdown and, more importantly, sequestration cuts next month. While this is a positive for the market, prospects are diminishing that Congress will pass a tax bill that would have positive implications for sectors with high R&D spending. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

4 minutes, 28 seconds: The longest duration that the Moon will completely cover the Sun during the solar eclipse on April 8.

Newsletter

Inflation Concerns Keep Federal Reserve on Sidelines for Much – Much – Longer

March 18, 2024 

Ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s March rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell headed to Washington, D.C. to testify before Congress on the current state of policy and expectations for rates going forward. Without convincing proof of inflation retreating, the Committee, he said, is in no rush to initiate rate cuts, setting the stage for a prolonged position on the sidelines.

Article

Watching for a Slowdown Despite the Optimism

Investment Strategy Brief 

There’s lots of optimism out there on both the economy and markets. In our March Investment Strategy Brief, we discuss how we’re watching for a slowdown, including a focus on the consumer, Federal Reserve policy, and other stresses related to higher interest rates, like with regional banks.

Article

The Ides of March: Watching for a Slowdown

March 15, 2024

Facing what seems to be unwavering economic optimism in the media and among some market watchers, we challenge ourselves to think differently. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we share some insights on the current environment as we watch for a slowdown.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

75%: The percentage of U.S. individuals that have confidence that retirement plan accounts can help individuals meet retirement goals.

Newsletter

Still Solid Job Gains in February Continue to Support Higher for Longer

March 11, 2024

With the February report exceeding expectations despite downward revisions to the January print, nominally, the pace of job creation remains still solid, pulling the three-month average up from 243,000 to 265,000.

Video

Potomac Perspective

March 11, 2024

President Joe Biden’s fiscal year 2025 budget will be released. Like most budgets, it will be DOA, but will still be important for the political message it sends as the 2024 campaign revs up.

Article

The 2024 Election Supercycle Brings Into Focus an Evolving World Order

March 8, 2024

Elections can drive change, and as we further assess the issues faced by voters globally, shifting global relationships come into focus. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we provide an update on the 2024 election supercycle and offer insights on the evolving world order fueled by economic competition.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$118,600: The average 401(k) balance at the end of 2023, up 14% from a year ago, according to Fidelity.

Newsletter

“Patient, Careful, Methodical, and Deliberative:” Rate Cuts Delayed Amid Ongoing Inflation Concerns

March 4, 2024

Since reaching a presumed terminal level of 5.50% in July of last year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has offered a consistent message of “patience” when it comes to the next stage of policy adjustment. While willing to include the notion of an eventual rate cut(s) into the conversation, Fed officials have been clear they will take a tempered approach towards a removal of accommodation.

Article

AI Boom: Temporary or Enduring?

March

As we start 2024, Artificial Intelligence (AI) remains top of mind for investors. Our February Investment Strategy Brief delves into the transformative impact of AI and related market dynamics. We also examine continued inflation concerns, monetary policy, and investment implications.

Article

February in Review

Momentum continued in February as the S&P 500 reached an all-time high, closing the month up 5.34%. By month-end, 97% of S&P 500 companies had reported fourth quarter earnings, with earnings growing 4.0% year over year.

Article

Equities Have a Strong Start in 2024, Warranting a Further Focus on Earnings

March 1, 2024

The stock market has started this year off strong, with the index ending February at 5,096.27 and a year-to-date return of 7.11%. Earnings, and a view of future earnings, are influencing this market behavior. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we provide an update on the fourth quarter earnings season.

Article

Favorite 15

A selection of slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing the transformative impact of AI and related market dynamics.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

11.3%: The percentage of Americans consumers’ disposable income spent on food in 2022 according to the USDA, the highest since 1991.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

February 27, 2024

Congress returns to Washington this week to face yet another spending deadline. A partial government shutdown is possible, but we expect it would be short in duration and not market moving. The bigger issue is whether Congress will approve a spending bill that funds the government to fiscal year-end and averts sequestration cuts which could take effect in May.

Article

State of the Economy

February 2024

Leaving rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting in January, Federal Reserve officials continue to tout a message of patience, reminding market participants no further rate hikes do not necessarily translate into rate cuts, at least not yet.

Article

The Federal Reserve’s January Meeting Minutes Highlight Strengths and Vulnerabilities

February 23, 2024

We review and summarize some key takeaways from the Federal Reserve January meeting minutes, which highlight some strengths and potential vulnerabilities in the current environment.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Lyft made an oopsie that sent the stock flying up 60% for a short period of time. The company added an extra 0 to a profitability figure. The stock came back down faster than management could say “no take backs.”

Newsletter

Firming Consumer Inflation Renews Focus on the Federal Reserve and Earnings

February 16, 2024

We discuss how firming inflation has renewed the focus on Federal Reserve policy, company earnings, market valuations, and a breakdown of the “magnificent seven” versus the rest of the market.

Article

Maintaining Composure During An Election Year

February 9, 2024

As happens every four years, the balance of power will be contested in 2024. We discuss how investors can prepare for the election by reflecting on history and the benefits of maintaining composure up to and through the election itself.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

719: The number of trading sessions it took for the S&P 500 to gain 1,000 points to reach 5,000, an all-time high. 

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

February 9, 2024

Previously, we thought the 2024 presidential race would feature a replay of 2020. A Special Counsel’s report, however, calls this view into question.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$9,800: The average ticket price for the upcoming matchup between Kansas City and San Francisco, the most expensive on record.

Newsletter

Robust Job Gains and Solid Wage Growth Support Higher for Longer

February 5, 2024

U.S. job creation was nothing short of robust at the start of the year. And, with solid labor demand outpacing worker supply, wage pressures remain strong, perpetuating both the Federal Reserve  assessment of solid labor market conditions and the need for patience in terms of adjusting restrictive policy.

Video

Potomac Perspective

February 6, 2024

A busy week is on tap in Washington, D.C. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the Colorado ballot access case and the Senate will debate a foreign aid/immigration bill.

Article

Spotlight No. 5: Outlook 2024: Embracing Change The AI Revolution

February 2, 2024

We offer our final “spotlight” for 2024 to summarize the article AI Revolution: Transforming Industries and Investments and discuss how artificial intelligence (AI) is influencing our investment decisions and changing our world.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$2,500: The value of Stanley drinking cups found in a California woman’s car trunk after she allegedly stole them. Please look at this photo.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

February 1, 2024

A corporate tax bill scored an impressive victory last night in the House. The legislation still faces some hurdles in the Senate, but the House vote signals momentum for the bill, and its chances of becoming law have increased. 

Article

January in Review

February 2nd, 2024

The S&P 500 started the year strong, setting a new all-time high and ending January up 1.68% (total return). The return was driven primarily by mega cap technology stocks as the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index was down 0.82%.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 31, 2024

On Monday, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) proposed a policy statement on bank merger applications. However, it raises questions about mergers for banks over $50 billion in assets, officially recognizes that merger applications from global systemically important banks (GSIBs) are unlikely to be approved, and raises a question about mergers of equals.

Article

Q1 Rate Cuts: A Wall Street Fairy Tale?

January 30, 2024

Investors remain exuberant, calling for a series of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts over the next several quarters. Investors have visions of returning to the easier credit conditions of years past dancing in their heads. Such a desire for relief, however, may be clouding their judgment given the Fed’s ongoing message of patience and caution.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 30, 2024

The House might vote this week on a corporate tax bill.  Then again, it might not.  A strong House vote in support of the bill could build momentum for the bill in the Senate, but failure to even vote on the bill could be a warning sign.  Senate negotiations over an immigration bill could also come to a head this week.

Article

Spotlight No. 4: Outlook 2024: Embracing Change Geopolitical Risk Dashboard: A New World

January 26, 2024

Geopolitics are changing our lives, creating a new world. Learn about the risks we are tracking, including U.S.-China competition, Middle East Conflict, and Financial Instability. 

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives

Q1 2024

We review the prior quarter's capital market returns and economic developments in this context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

Favorite 15

January 2024

A selection of slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing our Outlook 2024: Embracing Change.

Article

Spotlight No. 3: Outlook 2024: Embracing Change: Our Scenarios

January 19, 2024

Earlier this month, my team and I released our outlook report, Outlook 2024: Embracing Change. This week, we explain our bear and bull scenarios included in our outlook report.

Article

Allocation Insights

Q1 2024

As we step into 2024, a global shift is underway, accompanied by evolving market and economic dynamics. Learn how we are positioning portfolios.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 23, 2024

The New Hampshire primary was the next step toward Donald Trump winning the GOP presidential nomination. Even though Nikki Haley has a one-on-one matchup with Trump, she lacks a realistic chance at beating him in upcoming states.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

8.2%: The decline in champagne shipments from France in 2023 compared to 2022, totaling 299 million bottles.

Newsletter

Economic Insight LIVE Replay

Q1 2024

View the replay webinar of her quarterly series, where Dr. Lindsey Piegza discussed the current environment and her economic outlook for 2024.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 17, 2024

Donald Trump’s rout in Iowa signals an early end to the Republican nomination process. The results from the Iowa caucuses were as expected and do not provide much of a path forward for Trump’s remaining rivals.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 23, 2024

New Hampshire primary is the next step towards Donald Trump winning the GOP presidential nomination.  Even though Nikki Haley has a one-on-one matchup with Trump, she lacks a realistic chance at beating him in upcoming states.  A corporate tax bill has taken an important step towards passing.  The bill’s prospects have improved, but hurdles remain.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

700: The number of jobs added to the IT sector over 2023, a drastic slowdown from the 267,000 jobs added in 2022.

Newsletter

Spotlight No. 2: Outlook 2024: Embracing Change 2024

January 12, 2024

Last week, our team released our outlook report, Outlook 2024: Embracing Change. This week, we share a summary of our economic and market outlook for the coming year.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 10, 2024

2024 is off to a rough start in Washington, D.C. Despite agreements among congressional leaders on top-line budget numbers and a possible corporate tax deal, prospects for averting a partial shutdown and passing a tax bill are murky at best. Similarly, the chances of passing a foreign aid supplemental bill (which has long-term ramifications) don’t look great either.

Article

A Federal Reserve Policy Shift Sets a Positive Tone for 2024

December 2023

In December the Federal Open Market Committee signaled a less hawkish tone and the prospect for rate cuts next year. In this month’s Investment Strategy Brief, we discuss related economic implications, continuing geopolitical tensions, and how these and other factors are driving the market as 2023 comes to a close.

Video

Potomac Perspective

January 12, 2024

“Is this Heaven?” “No. It’s Iowa.” (Field of Dreams)

For some Republican presidential candidates, Iowa might be far from Heaven. It could be the end of the road. We preview some possible takeaways from Monday’s Iowa caucuses.

Article

Outlook 2024 Spotlight #1: A Brief Summary

January 5, 2024

We’re excited to start 2024, and as is our team’s practice, this week we start the year by sharing a brief overview of our Outlook 2024: Embracing Change report.

Article

December in Review

January 1 2024

The S&P 500 ended the year on a positive note, up 4.54% in December, bringing the total return for 2023 to 26.29%. Strong earnings during the year, continued investor optimism for a soft landing, and a change in tone from monetary policymakers helped drive the strong return.

Article

2024 Outlook: Don’t Count Your Chickens Before They Hatch

December 28, 2023

Inflation remains elevated with a disappointing pace of improvement, complicating the Fed’s policy pathway relative to market expectations.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$51: The average amount workers who returned to the office spent a day on commuting, meals, coffee, and parking in 2023, according to a recent company study. 

Newsletter

The Federal Reserve Shares A Change in its Views for 2024 Monetary Policy

December 22, 2023

The results of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting reinforced the idea of change, as the Fed shared what really is a subtle shift in its thinking. We review the results of the Fed’s December meeting and briefly discuss how the Fed’s change in thinking will influence 2024.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 20, 2023

The Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump is ineligible to be on the state’s ballot. We expect the case will go to the U.S. Supreme Court and will be overturned. We explain why and what the practical ramifications are in the event that our view is wrong.

Article

Favorite 15

December 2023

A selection of our slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing the geopolitical environment, Federal Reserve policy, economic environment, and the 2024 U.S. elections.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 13, 2023

Federal agencies recently released their updated semiannual agenda which forecast dates for the issuing of new regulatory proposals as well as the finalization of outstanding proposals. It is impossible to cover all agencies, but a few items stood out.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

13.3 million: The number of barrels of oil the United States is set to produce per day during the fourth quarter of this year, a global record, according to a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Newsletter

Beware of Recency Bias and the Allure of Strong Performance

December 15, 2023

The S&P 500 made a strong recovery in 2023 off a down year in 2022. We review the strong allure of the S&P 500’s total return this year, the risks of recency bias, and a look at history to better understand how performance ebbs and flows across different objectives.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$443.5 billion: The amount that developing nations spent on servicing their public debts in 2022, up 5% over the previous year.

Newsletter

2023 Signposts for Finding Balance

December 8, 2023

My team and I are developing our final outlook for 2024, which we plan to publish the first week of January. We started the year with a focus on finding balance, and in our outlook for 2023 we identified several signposts we’d be watching for through the year. We review our signposts for this year as we moved toward finding balance.

Article

Exercising Humility: Where We Were Right…Where We Were Wrong

December 18, 2023

In preparing Stifel’s 2024 economic outlook, it is important to first look back at our 2023 forecast.  Noting accuracies and shortfalls can help reveal and clarify changing trends and variables.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 13, 2023

Federal agencies recently released their updated semiannual agenda which forecast dates for the issuing of new regulatory proposals as well as the finalization of outstanding proposals. It is impossible to cover all agencies, but a few items stood out.

Article

Robust Job Growth with Uptick in Monthly Wages Sends Mixed Signal for Inflation Pathway

December 11, 2023

The U.S. labor market remains tight, although there are some indications of conditions improving. Headline job creation remains robust, and a decline in the unemployment rate coupled with an uptick in the workweek suggest there remains a sizable demand for workers heading into the new year.

Video

A First Look at the Calculus of the 2024 Presidential Election

December 1, 2023

We discuss the four phases of a presidential election and some early observations for 2024.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 6, 2023

A pair of key events are on the policy calendar this week. The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in an important case on the taxation of unrealized profits. A decision, which could impact future attempts to tax unrealized capital gains, could be issued in the first half of 2024.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Apple and Paramount are in talks to bundle streaming services. I’m not the first to say this, but all of my streaming subscriptions are starting to feel like a cable bill.

Newsletter

Buy Now, Pay Later: Consumers’ Willingness to Spend May be Stronger Than Their Ability

December 4, 2023

The U.S. consumer continues to defy expectations for a material slowdown amid elevated prices. A perceived sense of purchasing power seems to be perpetuating a willingness – justified or not – for consumers to keep spending. However, momentum is fading as short-term supplements, such as a drawdown of savings, a ramp-up of credit card spending, and 401(k) emergency withdrawals, are inching closer to exhaustion.

Article

Favorite 15

November 2023

A selection of our slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief Discussing the Israel-Hamas war, the ongoing Fiscal Transition, and the current economic environment.  

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$201,972.66: The total cost of the 12 gifts from the classic song “The Twelve Days of Christmas” according to the PNC Christmas Price Index.

Newsletter

November in Review

December 1, 2023

Equity markets had their best monthly performance in over a year, rising 9.13% during November. Markets were bolstered by the continued slowdown in inflation and the view that the Federal Reserve will stop interest rate hikes.

Article

Markets Recover on Inflation Relief: 2023 Is Proving to Be Quite a Ride

November 20, 2023

The recent October inflation reports showed progress. Sometimes it is tempting to focus in on one issue, one report, and the immediate market reaction. But 2023 has been filled with a variety of such reports and events that have driven market direction. We briefly review the market dynamics in 2023 and share some details about cooling inflation.

Article

Potomac Perspective

November 30, 2023

Even though the annual spending bills have been punted into 2024, Congress faces a packed schedule in December.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

30 million: The number of passengers the TSA expects to screen from November 17 through November 28.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

November 21, 2023

Recent press reports alleging a toxic workplace culture at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation are not yet enough to force a change of leadership.

Article

Inflation Three Ways: Still Elevated Price Pressures Reinforce Powell’s Willingness to Raise Rates Further despite Market Skepticism

November 20, 2023

The latest commentary from Fed officials has been mixed at best. Despite the growing noise, however, from both voting and non-voting policy makers, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell seemingly set the tone last week regarding the future of monetary policy and its dependency on the performance of inflation as the driver.

Article

Allocation Insights

Q4 2023

As we end the year, the macroeconomic landscape remains largely unchanged as a wider range of potential outcomes and near-term uncertainties warrant caution. Our dynamic asset allocation guidance continues to reflect that.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$1.08 trillion: The amount that Americans owed on their credit cards in the third quarter, a new record.

Newsletter

Fiscal Transition - Tensions Continue

November

Is the Federal Reserve (Fed) finished with its latest rate hiking program? We are seeing more signs of cooling inflation and a stronger-than-expected economy, but elevated geopolitical tensions and the Fiscal Transition persist.

Video

Potomac Perspective

November 15, 2023

Talks between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping could reestablish military communications between the two countries, which in turn could reduce geopolitical risks – a positive for the markets.  Our base case, however, remains that the U.S. will extend most tariffs on Chinese imports and will impose new restrictions on chip exports.

Article

Mind Your Cutlery: Despite Market Skepticism, Elevated Inflation Could Drive Rates Higher

November 13, 2023

The Federal Open Market Committee opted to leave rates at an upper bound of 5.50% earlier this month, remaining unchanged since July, sparking speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be done with rate hikes altogether.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

9%: The percentage of Americans that do not own a single physical book. On the other hand, 3% own more than 1,000 books.

Newsletter

Third Quarter Earnings Season: Stronger Now, but Weaker Later?

November 10, 2023

The U.S. economy has held up well in 2023, with the first estimate of third quarter GDP much stronger than most expected. As equity investors, we are also quite focused on the degree to which this robust economic activity translates to stock earnings, the primary driver of equity performance. In this Sight|Lines, we share insights from the third quarter earnings season.

Article

Weaker Job Growth and Uptick in Unemployment Rate, but Labor Market Remains Broadly Tight

November 6, 2023

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 150,000 in October, less than the 180,000 gain expected. While the monthly pace of hiring has slowed somewhat, month-to-month volatility aside, the longer-run trend remains firm above 200,000, perpetuating the notion of a tight labor market, although conditions have improved somewhat.

Article

Unwinding Pandemic Distortions: The Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Maintaining Its Restrictive Policy

November 3, 2023

In the meeting this week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its funds rate steady at 5.25%-5.50% and will continue to shrink its securities holdings, a restrictive policy that will likely keep market interest rates higher for longer. We unpack the learnings from the latest Fed meeting and discuss the implications.

Article

Potomac Perspective

November 3, 2023

A year out from the election, we take a look at the state of the race. We currently view Donald Trump as a slight favorite in 2024, but we will be watching the bellwether state of Kentucky for a sign of how 2024 might play out.

Article

October In Review

November 1, 2023

Markets fell as the Israel-Hamas war weighed on sentiment and investors continue to wrestle with the prospect of higher for longer interest rates.

Article

It’s Time to Develop a Plan to Redeploy Cash

October 27, 2023

With increased bond market volatility and a weakening stock market, it is not surprising that some investors have invested in cash equivalents like money market funds or Treasury bills, as yields on these cash-like investments have exceeded 5%. We discuss the rationale for the long-term investor to develop a plan to redeploy cash back to a long-term strategy.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$601: The total cost that U.S. households are expected to pay for natural gas heating this winter, down 21% from last winter

Newsletter

State of the Economy: Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators

October 30, 2023

Despite the market’s disbelief, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the possibility of a further backup in the federal funds target rate should concerns over inflation remain. Of course, recent events overseas have at the very least complicated the timing for any such action, as the impact of the conflict on monetary policy remains – like the war itself – uncertain.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 26, 2023

House Republicans have finally elected a new Speaker of the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) is a political conservative but with a moderate temperament.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is developing a tool to detect AI-generated images and is being touted to be 99% accurate. Finally!

Newsletter

Favorite 15

October 2023

A selection of our slides from our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing the Israel-Hamas war as well as the on going Fiscal Transition from a higher rate regime and increased U.S. debt.

Article

A Federal Reserve Divided Unto Itself

October 24, 2023

As uncertain as war itself, so too is the impact of international conflict on monetary policy. With that in mind, the best answer to “How will the Israeli conflict impact the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate policy?” is it’s too early to tell.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 24, 2023

While the waiting game for a new House Speaker continues and drags down the legislative agenda, regulators continue to churn out key regulatory proposals.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

21.19%: The average interest rate for all commercial bank cardholders in August 2023, the highest on record, according to Federal Reserve data.

Newsletter

Fiscal Transition

October 20, 2023

We discuss the Israel-Hamas war as well as how a higher rate regime and increased U.S. debt will result in a painful Fiscal Transition across our economy.

Video

Troubling Forces Converge: We’re Headed to a Fiscal Transition

October 6, 2023

We recently discussed four headwinds negatively affecting stocks, which followed articles on the new higher rate regime, the U.S. government’s fiscal challenges, and the related implications of a downgrade in U.S. government debt. Finally, our most recent Investment Strategy Brief includes a discussion on the buildup of debt since the Great Recession. We discuss various fiscal forces that, taken together, could spell trouble.

Article

Third Quarter in Review

Q4 2023

In a dynamic economic landscape, the U.S. economy remains resilient but not without challenges. While inflation is moderating, uncertainties linger. The strong labor market and consumer spending continue to drive economic growth, defying recession forecasts for 2023.

Article

Market Reaction to the Israel– Hamas War … and Left Tail Risks

October 13, 2023

In our Geopolitical Risk Dashboard, we’ve been discussing Middle East Tensions as an important risk to monitor. Such a risk just became a reality, with Hamas invading Israel and a war breaking out. Of course, before we consider the market implications and investment risks, we must first focus on the human tragedy.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 16, 2023

The next man up for Speaker of the House for House Republicans is Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). He faces an uphill fight similar to previous Republican nominees. The impasse in the House has not impacted financial markets, nor do we think it should.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

17%: The proportion of customers who admitted to being “uncivil” in their interactions with businesses, according to the National Customer Rage Survey.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

October 11, 2023

Hamas’s attack on Israel has raised concerns of a regional escalation, which could send ripples through the global economy. Any escalation could complicate the Federal Reserve’s decision on a path forward. The Middle East crisis also has implications for domestic politics in the U.S. House Republicans must now consider an international crisis as they meet this week to nominate a candidate for Speaker of the House. Two Republicans have announced their candidacy.

Article

Rising Treasury Debt Fuels Rising Yields despite Washington Negotiations

October 9, 2023

The good news: Officials in Washington were able to avoid a federal government shutdown. The bad news: The stopgap measure reached in the late hours of the showdown between Republicans and Democrats only kicked the can down the road by a mere 48 days.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 5, 2023

The Speaker’s race has possible implications for sectors like energy and crypto as well as possible ramifications for China, as the ripple effects of the race could reach Asia. Also, the longer the search for a new Speaker goes on, the less likely it is that Congress can pass individual budget bills by a November 17 deadline.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

237: The number of smartphone notifications that teenagers receive on a typical day.

Newsletter

Favorite 15

September 2023

A selection of our slides form our most recent Investment Strategy Brief discussing the prospect for a “soft landing” given firming inflation and other key factors influencing the economy and markets going forward.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 3, 2023

The surprising move over the weekend that averted a government shutdown should be a positive for the markets as it alleviates fears of dysfunction in Washington – at least temporarily.

Article

September in Review

October 2, 2023

Volatility increased and the S&P 500 fell 4.77% in September, Investors wrestled with a number of potential headwinds. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left rates unchanged at its September meeting.

Article

Headwinds Push the Stock Market Lower

October 2, 2023

The year-to-date return on the S&P 500 peaked on July 31 at 20.6%. Since then, the market has fallen 6.0%, and the year-to-date return has fallen to 13.4%. Numerous headwinds are pushing stocks lower, with some investors worried that these headwinds may intensify and lead to further weakness. We discuss some of the headwinds and our outlook going forward.

Article

State of the Economy: Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators

October 2, 2023

The Federal Reserve appears confident in the current state of the economy with relatively strong job gains, a resilient banking system, seemingly solid consumer, and recent improvement in the housing market.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

210 million: The number of unique visits to ChatGPT in May 2023, its busiest month this year.

Newsletter

Does firmer inflation put a soft landing at risk?

September 2023

We discuss the prospect for a “soft landing” given firming inflation and other key factors influencing the economy and markets going forward.

Article

Rising Household Wealth Supports Spending as Savings Run Dry

September 25, 2023

As expected, the Fed opted to keep policy unchanged in a range of 5.25% to 5.50% at its September meeting, the highest level since 2001. Of course, taking a second-round pause, as Chair Powell clearly indicated, does not mean an end to further tightening or that “we have reached the target level.” The pause is a reflection of the progress already made, but “we haven’t gotten to a point of confidence yet.”

Video

The Federal Reserve Holds Steady Even as Inflation Moves Higher

September 22, 2023

The Federal Reserve (Fed) elected not to hike rates further, even as two key inflation rates, the consumer price index and producer price index, reversed a downward trend and moved higher. We review key inflation reports as well as the results of the September Fed meeting.

Article

Potomac Perspective

September 21, 2023

While a government shutdown is not expected to impact financial markets, it could still have ramifications, including delaying the release of economic data which could affect the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting if the shutdown lasts long enough. We give a brief overview of what activities might (or might not) be impacted.

Article

Three Cracks in the Strong Labor Market

September 15, 2023

The Federal Reserve (Fed) sets monetary policy in consideration of its dual mandate for maximum employment and stable prices. For some time, the economy has been out of balance, with a very strong labor market and higher inflation. As the Fed hiked rates to cool inflation, the labor market has remained strong. But some data from the last few months is signaling the job market may be weakening. We summarize three cracks that are emerging in an otherwise strong job market. 

Article

Rising Household Wealth Supports Spending as Savings Run Dry

September 15, 2023

The U.S. consumer has been surprisingly resilient. While clearly losing momentum from peak levels, expenditures surpassed expectations again last month. But can the consumer maintain this pattern of positive spending? Can the consumer continue to carry the economy? It depends.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$135 billion: The estimated amount for jobless benefits paid out by U.S. states during the coronavirus pandemic that may have arisen from fraudulent claims.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

September 13, 2023

Following up on our recent notes that discussed the possible impeachment of President Joe Biden, the announcement that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is directing certain House committees to begin impeachment proceedings affirms our view that impeachment is not a market moving event.

Article

Call for Patience Likely to Delay Inevitable Further Federal Reserve Action

September 11, 2023

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell did not parse words late last month at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming, when he sent an extremely hawkish message to the market that there was more policy work to be done, and soon.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

44%: The percentage of retirement savers in their 20s and 30s that say they want to retire by 60, according to the World Economic Forum.

Newsletter

Dates to Watch, and Volatility. Again, it’s Time In, Not Timing the Market

September 8, 2023

We review key dates for the remainder of 2023, and again review the concept that time in the market is more important than timing the market.

Article

Potomac Perspective

September 6, 2023

Congress returns to Washington for a busy fall. Some matters, like a government shutdown and potential impeachment proceedings regarding President Biden, could produce smoke but little fire (at least for the markets). Legislation on disaster relief, prescription drugs, corporate taxes, and several bills related to financial services could also be on the agenda.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$78,645: Job seekers’ average reservation wage — the lowest pay they’d be willing to take for a new job, up nearly 8% from July of last year.

Newsletter

A New Market Rate Regime? Data and Sentiment Say Yes

September 1, 2023

The 10-year Treasury yield has risen above 4%, levels not seen since before the Great Recession. Forward rates are signaling that market participants believe the 10-year yield will remain above 4% for decades. We discuss the potential for a higher market rate regime, considering both market data and investor sentiment in our discussion.

Article

August in Review

September 1, 2023

The S&P 500 fell during the month of August as volatility increased, despite inflationary pressures continuing to ease. Second quarter earnings came to a close with the majority reporting better returns than expected. 

Article

U.S. Equity Earnings: Signs of Strength … and Weakness

August 25, 2023

A majority of companies have reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings. Consumer discretionary stocks did well, while energy companies have fallen short. We share some key learnings from the second quarter earnings season.

Article

Surging Retail Sales Indicate Consumer Resilience, for Now

August 21, 2023

Retail sales figures in July showed U.S. consumers continue to spend despite higher prices and rising interest rates. In fact, the unexpected acceleration in spending activity was the primary driver in the second quarter that boosted topline growth to 2.4%.

Article

Allocation Insights

Q3 2023

The wider range of potential outcomes and near-term uncertainties warrant caution, so our dynamic asset allocation guidance continues to reflect that. See how our team is positioning portfolios in the current environment.

Article

Favorite 15

August 2023

We offer our view on how the rest of the year may unfold as we seek balance on a few more of our signposts. We discuss our mid-year outlook, reviewing the economy, inflation, and markets.

Article

Keep Composure as Equity Market Volatility Increases in the Second Half: Three Positive Forces

August 18, 2023

We share some thoughts on equity market volatility, composure, and three forces that could be positive for stocks going forward.

Article

Potomac Perspective

August 16, 2023

Pressure has been building among House Republicans to pursue the impeachment of President Biden based on revelations connected to the investigation of the business affairs of his son, Hunter. While the recent appointment of a Special Counsel for the Hunter Biden investigation will probably delay the beginning of a formal impeachment inquiry, questions about the potential impact of such an inquiry on financial markets are likely to pop up.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Google is testing an AI assistant that offers life advice. I hope this helps folks in need, but we are training bots to have emotions, just saying. 

Newsletter

The Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Implications of the U.S. Debt Downgrade

August 11, 2023

We summarize the Fitch U.S. government debt downgrade and the short-, medium-, and long-term implications of this action.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$45 billion: The increase in U.S. credit card indebtedness for the April-June period, a 4% increase. Full indebtedness is now at $1.03 trillion, the highest amount since the Fed started tracking it.

Newsletter

Headline Inflation Reverses Course as Core Signals Further – Albeit Minimal – Improvement, Muddying the Outlook for the Federal Reserve

August 14, 2023

The latest inflation numbers were increasingly favorable as core consumer costs dropped to a 21-month low. With a continued retreat in price pressures in mind, investors have increased expectations for a second-round pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes in September and a soft landing for the economy.

Article

Hard Landing “Deferred,” Not Avoided: Strength in the Labor Market Indicates Need for Further Policy Action, Increasing Odds of – Eventual – Downturn

August 7, 2023

Despite over 500 basis points of tightening, the labor market remains solid, perpetuating optimism the Federal Reserve may be able to achieve the elusive “soft landing.”

Article

Potomac Perspective

August 7, 2023

The possibility of a government shutdown in October will confront Congress when it returns to Washington after Labor Day. Headlines regarding a potential budget impasse will grow, and there could be a whiff of panic in the air, but investors should take all of this in stride. Markets tend to ignore the impact of a government.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

46,000 years: How long an individual roundworm survived frozen in the Siberian permafrost before being recently revived.

Newsletter

Our Focus for the Second Half of 2023: A Summary of a recent Client Webinar

August 2, 2023

We share a summary of our recent client webinar: Our Focus for the Second Half of 2023. During the session, we discussed the remainder of 2023, focusing on how our outlook for the year has unfolded; where we are with inflation, monetary policy, and the risk of recession; and important happenings and areas of focus in Washington, D.C.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

170° F: The potential temperature of pavement on a hot day, where even eggs would rather stay sunny-side down.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

August 2, 2023

In the last week, the House Financial Services Committee took small, but important, steps towards passing cryptocurrency legislation. Even if Congress does not enact crypto legislation in 2023 or 2024, the votes in the House could be important steps in a longer political process. Also, the Senate passed a new notice requirement for outbound investments in China and other countries.

Article

July in Review

August 2023

The S&P 500 rose in July as performance broadened out with value stocks outperforming growth peers. Economic data surprised to the upside, signaling the U.S. economy remains resilient, boosting investor optimism for a soft landing. 

Article

Five Key Takeaways from the July Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision

July 31, 2023

The Federal Reserve opted to raise rates and will likely raise rates further. The July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement repeated what it said in its June statement that it will "continue to assess additional information" as it considers "the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate.” In other words, it is not a matter of whether or not further policy firming is needed, but how much more.

Article

Our Focus for the Second Half of 2023: Client Webinar Replay

Watch Stifel thought leaders as they discuss the economic, political, and market outlook and what’s in store for the second half of 2023.

Video

Potomac Perspective

July 26, 2023 

Last week, the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission proposed new merger guidelines which, if finalized, would increase the government’s scrutiny of mergers. We take a quick look at a complex and controversial proposal which will go through a public vetting process and could be finalized before the 2024 elections.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Barbie and Oppenheimer (aka Barbenheimer) collected a combined $235.5 million in the U.S. and Canada this past weekend, setting a new post-pandemic box office record. 

Newsletter

Our Long-Term Investment Themes: Stifel Summer Interns Weigh In

July 21, 2023

Each summer, Stifel, like many firms, has the good fortune to welcome in a cohort of interns, typically college students exploring a career in financial services. This year, we invited our interns to participate in a survey that aligned with our long-term investment themes. In this week’s Sight|Lines, we share insights from our 2023 Summer Intern Survey.

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives

Q3 2023

We review the prior quarter’s capital market returns and economic developments in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

The New Consumer: Findings from our 2023 Summer Intern Survey

This year we surveyed over 125 of Stifel’s summer interns to learn more about the preferences, spending habits, and perceptions of the next generation of consumers. 

Find out what our interns think about work from home, online shopping, big ticket purchases, climate change, and more. 

Newsletter

Economic Insight LIVE Webinar Replay

Q3 2023

Economic Insight LIVE, with Dr. Lindsey Piegza, where Dr. Piegza offers her quarterly economic outlook and views on the current environment.

Article

Favorite 15

July 21, 2023

With inflation continuing to cool and the U.S. economy holding up, we review the near-term risks and opportunities as we transition to a new bull market.

Article

Potomac Perspective

July 19, 2023

A recent split decision in a key cryptocurrency lawsuit could push Congress to consider legislating rather than hanging back and letting the SEC regulate most of the sector. House Republicans continue to work on a corporate tax bill, but hang ups over the state and local tax deduction and the Child Care Tax Credit could push the bill into the fall or even tank it altogether. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Domino’s stock jumped more than 10% as the pizza chain partners with Uber for food orders.

Newsletter

Hovering Around the Line: Inflation Approaches 2%

July 14, 2023

Inflation is closer to 2%, but the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not be satisfied. We summarize the June inflation reports and what to expect at the July 2023 Fed meeting. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$1 billion: The estimated gross revenue of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour over a total of at least 106 dates. 

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

July 10, 2023

Despite positive rhetoric following Secretary Janet Yellen’s trip to China, tensions between the two countries are likely to remain elevated, as the U.S. is unlikely to significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese exports and might instead create a new vetting process for outbound investments in China.

Article

Lower Unemployment, Faster Wage Growth Keeps Fed on Target for July Rate Hike

July 10, 2023

Hiring momentum appears to be cooling, yet job creation remains positive and for the Federal Reserve, the headline number is far less important than the underlying components: a decline in the unemployment rate, an increase in wage growth – this is this exact opposite of what policymakers have been looking for.

Article

An “Unexpected Rebound” in Housing

July, 3, 2023

Despite rising borrowing costs, the latest read of housing market metrics suggests ongoing resilience. While mortgage rates have risen alongside the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s 500-basis-point increase in its short-term benchmark rate over the last 14 months and presumably undercut affordability, construction activity and sales, as well as prices, have ticked up recently.

Article

June in Review

July 5, 2023

Equity markets rose in June as economic data showed that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher rates and still elevated inflation. The S&P 500 returned 6.5% for the month, now up over 25% from its October 2022 lows.

Article

Securing Strategic Resources: Food and Water

June 30, 2023

We go a little deeper into our long-term subthemes: Securing Strategic Resources – Food and Water Security.

Article

A New Bull Market

June 28, 2023

With inflation continuing to cool and the U.S. economy holding up, in this month’s Investment Strategy Brief, we discuss the near-term risks and opportunities that lie ahead as we transition to a new bull market.

Article

Potomac Perspective

June 29, 2023

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has yet to signal whether it will extend a key no-action letter regarding the bundling of investment research and trade execution costs. There is bipartisan support for extending the relief, but a definitive answer from the SEC might not come until the very last minute. We also take a look at the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

2.5 million: The estimated number of people living in the newly independent United States in July 1776. 

Newsletter

A Message of Renewed Focus: Federal Reserve Members Anticipate a Moderate Pace of Further Rate Hikes to Tame Inflation

June 26, 2023

The Federal Reserve’s message this month was clear, crystal clear: The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to pause rate hikes in June should be considered a temporary halt and in no way an indication of an end to policy tightening.

Article

Going Deeper on “Sticky” Inflation Components

June 23, 2023

We go a little deeper into some sticky components of the Consumer Price Index and the real-time data that suggests inflationary pressures for these components should ease in the months ahead.

Article

Potomac Perspective

June 21, 2023

We look at how the Department of Justice’s approach to bank mergers is changing and how could this slow down the merger application process. We also discuss how Congress is starting to consider regulating AI.

Article

Inflation Cools Further: The Federal Reserve Pauses … or Is It a “Skip?”

June 16, 2023

We summarize recent inflation reports and the results of the June 2023 Fed meeting.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

125%: The used car loan-to-value ratio in the first three months of this year, up from 104% in 2021, meaning the car loan is worth more than the car.

Newsletter

A Skip in June, Reengage in July

June 12, 2023

Amid a slew of uneven data, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has indicated a willingness to move to the sideline to more fully assess the evolving state of the U.S. economy. However, if June passes without further action, the question remains whether or not policymakers will reengage at a later date.

Article

Continuing the AI Discussion: Our Long-Term Investment Themes

June 9, 2023

We continue the discussion on artificial intelligence (AI) to more fully explain our five long-term investment themes and how we believe they are affecting our world…and our investment guidance.

Article

Potomac Perspective

June 8, 2023

We turn our attention to a long list of issues that are likely to confront investors and management in the second half of 2023. This note looks at the prospect of a government shutdown, defense spending and aid for Ukraine, rules on investments in China, the student loan forgiveness case before the Supreme Court, corporate tax issues, mergers & acquisitions, and financial services regulation (including cryptocurrency).

Article

Potomac Perspective

June 14, 2023

House Republicans are pushing a tax bill that could make changes that impact corporate taxes. Also, the odds of a government shutdown in October have increased amidst dissention among House Republicans. Lastly, we take a look at the impact of the recent indictment of former President Trump and what it could mean for the Republican presidential primary.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

8: The number of stocks that account for 30% of the S&P 500’s market cap. 

Newsletter

A Range of Views Emerge

May 2023

We discuss the prospect for recession and the possible scenarios that may unfold amidst the ongoing uncertainties surrounding inflation, monetary policy, bank troubles, and the debt ceiling.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

60: The number of cupcakes a hungry black bear ate in the garage of a Connecticut bakery before running off.

Article

The future of artificial intelligence is now What does that say about the future?

June 2, 2023

We briefly explain ChatGPT and other competing services, relate these to our long-term investment theme framework, and offer some perspectives on the future, with both optimism and caution.

Article

May in Review

June 5, 2023

Equity markets traded in a narrow range most of May. The uncertainties we’ve been discussing all year related to inflation and the economy persisted, and the debt ceiling impasse added to investor worries.

Article

Strong Job Growth in May Complicates Fed Policy Outlook for June

June 5, 2023

The May report showed an astonishing rise in nonfarm payrolls well surpassing expectations. While broadly, the labor market was expected to show signs of cooling against the backdrop of 500 basis points in Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, the latest report offers evidence of quite the opposite.

Video

Allocation Insights

Q2 2023

The wider range of potential outcomes and near-term uncertainties warrant caution, so our dynamic asset allocation guidance continues to reflect that. See how our team is positioning portfolios in the current environment.

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 31, 2023

The debt ceiling bill will face a few political hurdles, but it will probably clear and pass both the House and Senate later this week. Assuming it passes, it will set up the next debt ceiling showdown in early 2025.

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 25, 2023

As the Memorial Day weekend approaches, a debt ceiling deal might be announced in the next 48 hours. If Washington fails to reach a deal in the next few days, policymakers have some contingency plans – especially for the banking system. We take a look at a few of these plans.

Article

Favorite 15

May 24, 2023

We discuss the prospect for a recession amid the ongoing uncertainties surrounding inflation, monetary policy, bank troubles, and the debt ceiling.

Article

Sell in May? Don't Go Away

May 23, 2023

We explain and analyze “Sell in May and go away” and share an update to our guidance: For the long-term investor, time in the market is more important than timing the market.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Kraft Heinz unveiled a customizable sauce dispenser with more than 200 condiment combos for restaurants. Ever wanted to mix ranch and ketchup?

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

May 23, 2023

Monday’s White House meeting kept alive the possibility of reaching a debt ceiling deal this week. No major breakthroughs were announced, but the tone of the two sides, coupled with reports of agreements on some of the easier issues, signal that a deal is within reach.

Article

The Consumer Remains Resilient, for Now

May 22, 2023

Americans are still spending. Despite a significant increase in rates and a growing threat of recession, consumers have proven surprisingly resilient at the start of the year. At the same time, consumers are more indebted than ever, drawing down savings and ramping up credit card usage.

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 22, 2023

The White House meeting between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy could determine whether passing a debt ceiling bill deal by June 1 (possibly the X-date) is doable or not. While Washington will raise the debt ceiling at some point, an apparent lack of urgency is increasing the probability that Congress and the White House will fail to raise it by the X-date. 

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 17, 2023

There are still significant hurdles that need to be cleared before a debt ceiling deal can be reached, but mixed signals on the most recent round of talks lean to the positive. Equity markets seem to expect a deal.

Article

Solid Labor Market Data Complicates Fed’s Willingness to Pause

May 15, 2023

Despite the Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent decision to hike rates for the 10th time in 14 months, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be poised to take an abrupt turn in policy at next month’s meeting. However, if economic data continues to run strong, the Fed will have a difficult time justifying holding steady, let alone lowering rates.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

2: How many months it took ChatGPT to reach 100 million users. For context, it took Facebook and WhatsApp 42 and 49 months to each reach this level, respectively. For more information on this and to read the full piece, click below.

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 16, 2023

The mood surrounding the debt ceiling talks has turned slightly more optimistic although any agreement could still be weeks away and is still not assured.  We look at the possible timelines. 

Article

The Debate on Inflation Continues: April Inflation Is Firm, With Signs of Improvement

May 12, 2023

We can trace many of our current troubles back to the pandemic and related economic shutdown and reopening. But, along the way, a real culprit has been elevated inflation. We review the April 2023 consumer price index and producer price index inflation reports.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Homework-help company Chegg said customer growth may slow because of ChatGPT. The stock price fell lower than their textbook prices. 

Newsletter

Strong Job Growth in April Complicates Federal Reserve’s Willingness for Potential Pause

May 8, 2023

We take a closer look at the state of the U.S. labor market and the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s latest policy decision and what it means for the economy going forward.

Video

Potomac Perspective

May 5, 2023

In the wake of the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates and the subsequent move in bank stocks, more questions about the possibility of changing deposit insurance rules are resurfacing. We explain why Congress does not currently support changing deposit insurance rules and what actions might be taken if the political mood shifts.

Article

Seeking Signposts for Finding Balance: Risks All Around

May 5, 2023

We review a number of risks in the current environment that contribute to uncertainty and volatility.

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 3, 2023

Updates from the Treasury Department and the Congressional Budget Office suggesting that Treasury could exhaust extraordinary measures in early June probably point to a temporary suspension of the debt ceiling to buy more time for negotiations.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Bed Bath & Beyond has thrown the (bath) towel and filed for bankruptcy, but hey, they put up a good fight.

Newsletter

April in Review

May 3, 2023

Equity markets were calmer in April with markets ending positive. Markets are searching for direction amid ongoing debate on a number of moving pieces.

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 2, 2023

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation released an overview of deposit insurance that included policy options for Congress. In the current environment, chances of changes in deposit insurance are low. As the political winds shift, support for deposit insurance legislation could grow.

Article

Investors Anticipate Resolution as the Threat of Default Looms

May 1, 2023

U.S. Treasury debt has historically been viewed as one of the safest places for investors to put their money, but what if that security were to be questioned? The biggest risk to government debt is default, and while such a scenario is unlikely in the U.S., the contentious nature of the U.S. debt ceiling debate has some investors wondering if such an outcome is possible this time.

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives

Q2 2023

We review the prior quarter’s capital market returns and economic developments in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

Potomac Perspective

May 1, 2023

The Federal Reserve’s post-mortem on Silicon Valley Bank includes suggestions about future changes in regulations for banks above $100 billion in assets. The possible changes would be implemented over time and are generally in line with previous expectations about what the future will hold for large regional banks.

Article

The Recent Banking Turmoil: Risks and Opportunities “Hiding in Plain Sight”

April 28, 2023

We share some important views from Stifel’s Chairman and CEO, Ron Kruszewski, about the recent banking sector turmoil and related risks and opportunities “hiding in plain sight.”

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

5,000+ pounds: The estimated total weight of the dimes stolen from a truck that had picked up coins from the U.S. Mint. Estimates are that the thieves fled with at least $100,000 worth of dimes.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

April 26, 2022

The House could vote on a Republican debt ceiling bill this week. Passing the bill could ease the way to negotiations by giving House Speaker Kevin McCarthy some leverage in talks with the White House. Investors should discount the bill’s current proposals since it is merely a starting point.

Article

Consumer Slowdown Supports Recession Call, at Some Point

April 24, 2023

U.S. consumers are continuing to spend on goods and services. Under the weight of rising prices, however, along with lackluster real income growth and dwindling savings, the pace of expenditures has slowed markedly. 

Article

Looking beyond inflation and Federal Reserve Policy: Answering Client Questions About the Federal Budget, Deficit, and Debt

April 21, 2023

We take the opportunity to answer recent client questions on the federal budget, deficit, debt, and debt ceiling, as well as a new payment system being launched by the Federal Reserve, FedNow.

Article

Favorite 15

April 24, 2023


The key topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

Signposts for Investors: Recession Ahead? Investment Strategy Brief

April 2023

We give an update on the signposts for Finding Balance – including updates on China, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and the risk of recession.

Article

Potomac Perspective

April 20, 2023

House Republicans might try to pass a debt ceiling bill as soon as next week but the plan (if it passes the House) is unlikely to pass the Senate. For now, debt ceiling talks are nowhere. There could be a last-minute agreement to avoid a crisis, but the path to a deal seems unusually difficult.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

11%: How much the average tax refund has fallen so far this year compared with 2022.

Newsletter

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$2.2 million: The bid for Michael Jordan’s “Last Dance” game shoes on their first day at auction, likely to become the most expensive sneakers ever auctioned. 

Newsletter

Favorite 15

April 11, 2023

The key topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Starbucks’s new CEO, Laxman Narasimhan, wants to work in stores as a barista once a month.

Newsletter

Economic Insight LIVE Webinar Replay

April 2023

Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel’s Chief Economist, presented her second quarter economic outlook discussing the Federal Reserve's ongoing dilemma: the need to tame ongoing inflation while promoting stability in the markets. She dives into the recent economic data and what it means going forward for Fed policy.

Video

Potomac Perspective

April 5, 2022

Talks to raise the debt ceiling have not progressed meaningfully, and a pathway forward seems rocky. One option that might gain some traction in the coming weeks is a temporary suspension of the debt ceiling. This option also faces some political opposition, but it could buy investors some breathing room.

Article

Demand-Side Inflation to Determine Peak Policy; Supply-Side Issues Transcend Monetary Policy in Timeline for Rate Cuts

April 3, 2022

While the Fed has not taken its eye off the proverbial ball of price stability, the composition of the actions needed to achieve it appears to be evolving with the expectation of tighter credit conditions in light of the recent banking crisis.

Article

March in Review

April 1, 2023

The S&P 500 rose during the month despite elevated volatility from the failure of three U.S. banks. Fears of widespread contagion calmed following actions from policymakers while the Fed hiked interest rates.

Article

Potomac Perspective

March 31, 2023

The White House issued a fact sheet that puts forth several recommendations for banking regulators as they consider changes in the regulations of larger regional banks. The recommendations are aimed at banks between $100 billion and $250 billion in assets and have been telegraphed over the past few weeks. 

Article

Bank Troubles and Equity Earnings: An Inflection Point?

March 31, 2023

We unpack the fourth-quarter 2022 earnings season, assess implications for 2023 earnings, an discuss the potential future impact of bank regulation changes on earnings growth longer term.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

How many of you picked No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson to upset No. 1 Purdue? Then again, how many also expected three U.S. banks to fail so quickly. March madness, right? 

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

March 27, 2023 

The “blame game” will be prominent at a pair of congressional hearings this week on recent bank failures. The hearings could also clarify what regulators can (or cannot) do to increase deposit insurance and congressional support for (or resistance to) an increase. 

Article

Tighter Credit Conditions to Aid in Federal Reserve’s Fight Against Inflation

March 27, 2023

Last week, central bankers opted to raise rates for the ninth time in 12 months. Striking somewhat of a compromise between an aggressive 50-basis-point (bps) increase supported by strong inflation data and a pause in rate increases amid recent uncertainty in the banking sector, the Federal Reserve increased the key lending rate by “only” 25 bps. 

Article

The Bank Sector Calms Some, and the Federal Reserve “May” Adjust Policy

March 24, 2023

We offer an update on banking sector troubles, the results of the March Federal Reserve meeting, how these have affected market turbulence, and what it means for investors in 2023 and beyond.

Article

Potomac Perspective

March 22, 2023

Beyond the immediate impact on the banking industry, the current situation could impact policy and markets in numerous ways. The debt ceiling debate, the future of the Federal Reserve, coordination among global banking regulators, and the 2024 election are all intertwined and affected by events in the banking system.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

A Chicago man is suing Buffalo Wild Wings, alleging their boneless wings are actually chicken nuggets. Trial of the century folks. Next, can we have a ruling on whether a hotdog is a sandwich?

Newsletter

Bank Failures, and Worries of More, Amplify Volatility and Weakening Markets Investment Strategy Brief

March 2023

We review recent bank failures, government response, a Federal policy update, and implications for the economy, markets, and our views looking forward.

Article

Potomac Perspective

March 20, 2023

Currently, there does not seem to be adequate political will in Congress to temporarily increase deposit insurance.  Even if the mood shifts, Congress is unlikely to act until mid-April.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and key lawmakers will speak this week at the American Bankers Association’s Washington Summit, which could be a platform for them to layout their plans.

Article

Systematic Breakdown vs. Individual Failures, and the Pursuit of Price Stability

March 20, 2023

From an inflation standpoint, there remains solid support for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise rates in an effort to reinstate price stability. Of course, for monetary officials, policy decisions are never black and white nor are they made in a vacuum without a broader assessment of the economy and market conditions.

Article

Three bank failures, and worries of more: What happened? Where are we now? What about the future?

March 17, 2023

We review recent bank failures, the federal response, implications for Federal Reserve policy and the economy, the market response, and our views looking forward.

Article

CLIENT WEBINAR REPLAY An Update on the Banking Sector

March 14, 2023

View the replay where we discussed the recent bank failures, the federal response, and our views looking forward.

Video

Potomac Perspective

March 13, 2022

Government intervention in the banking system may come with a political price. In the wake of regulatory actions to guarantee all deposits at two failed banks and to create a new bank borrowing facility, investors and banks should expect increased supervision followed by regulatory changes.

Article

Strong Job Growth in February, Wages and Jobless Rate Cool

March 13, 2023

The latest rise in employment was a bit of a mixed bag with nonfarm payrolls rising 311,000, topping estimates, as the jobless rate and monthly wage growth indicated at least some indications of cooling. Of course, with still more than 10 million job vacancies, and millions of fewer Americans seeking employment, the unemployment rate remains at a five-decade low.

Video

The Consumer Remains Strong: Good News Is Bad News…Again

March 10, 2023

We share an update on the strong job market, improving consumer confidence, and consumer activity and their possible influence on Federal Reserve policy.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Hershey announced two vegan-friendly additions to their line – vegan Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups made with oat chocolate and an oat chocolate bar with sea salt and almonds.

Newsletter

Favorite 15

March 9 , 2023

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

Potomac Perspective

March 7, 2023

A busy week is on tap for policy events. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress as numerous financial regulators speak on digital assets. On Thursday The White House released President Biden's fiscal year 2024 budget.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$21 billion: The amount that Americans collectively have in unspent gift cards. Almost two-thirds of consumers have at least one unspent gift card tucked away somewhere.

Newsletter

Myriad of Inflation Indicators Offer Varying Assessments of Improvement

March 6, 2023

Inflation appears to be cooling in the United States, but the level of progress varies based on the inflation measure used. At this point, with the Fed hyper focused on taming inflation with the health and soundness of the broader economy at stake, it matters more than ever exactly which measure is used to properly gauge inflation.

Article

Will Shelter Inflation Cool in 2023? Shelter Plays a Key Role

March 3, 2022

We unpack the Consumer Price Index shelter component to learn why it is sticky and where it might be headed from here.

Article

Potomac Perspectives

March 1, 2023

The House of Representatives will consider legislation to overturn a Department of Labor rule regarding environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing. Regarding the debt ceiling, it appears that budget options are limited. These fiscal constraints create political risk for Speaker McCarthy.

Article

February in Review

March 1 2022

U.S. equity markets fell in February as inflation data raised concerns the pressures may persist, possibly causing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to push rates higher and keep them elevated longer than previously expected.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights 

Toyota and Honda both agreed to their biggest wage hikes in decades. Toyota’s workers’ union didn’t disclose a percentage increase, but Honda will raise pay by 5%.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspectives

February 28, 2023

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear the appeal of a case about how the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is funded. The headlines should be seen as a positive for the consumer finance sector but investors should not overreact.

Article

Recent Inflation Readings Firm Up: Glimpses of Optimism Fade

February 23, 2023

We share an update on investor reaction to the Federal Reserve meeting, firmer-than-expected January inflation reports, and an upward revision in fourth-quarter inflation readings compared to those previously reported.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

113.1 million: The amount of viewers who tuned in to the Super Bowl, making it the third most-watched TV program ever.

Newsletter

Glimpses of Optimism Fade Investment Strategy Brief

February 2023

We discuss how firmer inflation in January and some positive economic data are causing early 2023 investor optimism to fade.

Article

Federal Reserve Speak Broadly Affirms Expectations for Higher Rates with Varying Assessments of Pathway

February 14, 2023

The Federal Reserve remains committed to raising rates further in order to tame inflation. The latest slew of stronger-than-expected data, however, suggests that threshold may be higher than previously expected.

Article

Glimpses of Optimism Fade Investment Strategy Brief

February 2023

We discuss how firmer inflation in January and some positive economic data are causing early 2023 investor optimism to fade.

Article

Potomac Perspectives

February 14, 2023

Pop go the chances of big tariff relief. The recent sightings and takedowns of Chinese surveillance balloons over the U.S. will make the already long odds of repealing the 2018 tariffs on Chinese imports even longer. Also, in this note, we take an early look at the 2024 presidential race.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

AMC Theatres, the world’s largest cinema chain, announced plans to vary ticket prices based on seat location. The seats in front, where your ears get blasted by speakers, will be cheaper than the middle seats.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspectives

February 9, 2023

Among the proposals floated in the State of the Union address were taxing unrealized capital gains and increasing the stock buyback tax.

Article

Employment remains strong. Will the Federal Reserve pause rate hikes? Is a soft landing possible?

February 10, 2023

We unpack a positive employment report, a possible Federal Reserve (Fed) pause, and the resulting possibility of a soft landing.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

$4,438-$35,841: The price range for Super Bowl LVII tickets on ticket resale platforms such as StubHub and Ticketmaster.

Newsletter

Policy Decision Shifts to Historically Normal Pace

February 6, 2023

A modest improvement in inflation may be enough to convince policymakers a slower pace of ascent is appropriate, but uncomfortably high price pressures are making it clear more work needs to be done.

Article

Potomac Perspectives

February 6, 2023

President Joe Biden’s State of the Union could be seen as a soft opening for his 2024 reelection campaign. He is likely to take a victory lap on his 2022 legislative wins, promote climate initiatives, and highlight consumer-related sectors (tech and banking) to argue that his administration is helping consumers.

Article

Favorite 15

February 3, 2023

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

January in Review

February 1, 2023

The S&P 500 started 2023 on a high note, ending January up as investors grew more confident in the prospect of a “soft landing.”

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

Large companies’ layoffs have dominated headlines recently, but small and mid-size businesses continue to hire. That’s problematic for markets: A strong labor market may force the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates.

Newsletter

Outlook 2023 Spotlight No. 4: Geopolitical Risk Dashboard: Tensions Rising

January 31, 2023

We shine the final outlook spotlight on some of the global trends and risks discussed in the article Geopolitical Risks Dashboard: Tensions Rising.

Article

Consumer Spending Props Up Growth for Now, but Weakness Lies Ahead

January 30, 2023

In the second half of last year, consumers were able to maintain and, in some cases, increase spending as they were still flush with pandemic savings and fiscal support. Now, as savings dwindle, the weight of rising prices is undermining real wage growth.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 27, 2023

Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Lael Brainard is reportedly in the running for a key White House economic policy job. This move could have some short-term implications for monetary and bank regulatory policy.

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives: Q1 2023

January 26, 2023

We review the prior quarters capital market returns and economic developments in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes. 

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

After "inflation" wore out our keyboards last year, it's refreshing to finally type deflation. Yep, you read that right: December actually saw some year-over-year price drops.

Newsletter

Headline Inflation Improvement Masks Underlying Risks

January 23, 2023

The latest inflation data shows headline prices continuing to cool. Looking beyond the headline, some components of inflation remain worrisome as they continue a relentless move higher.

Article

Investment Strategy Brief: Outlook 2023: Finding Balance

January 2023

We dive a little deeper into our Outlook 2023: Finding Balance, including our views on the economy and markets in 2023.

Video

Q1 Allocation Insights

Q1 2023

See how the Stifel CIO Office is positioning portfolios in the current volatile environment.  

Article

Outlook 2023 Spotlight No. 3: Scenarios and Signposts

January 20, 2023

We have a base case view that is modestly positive, but as has been our practice.  That’s why we’ve asked ourselves the question: What if we are wrong?

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

At last?! Inflation eased in December as consumer prices fell, largely due to lower energy prices.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

January 18, 2023

As Congress approaches the X-date by which it needs to raise the debt limit to avoid a default, some in Congress are floating proposals on how to circumvent the House Republican leadership and pass a clean increase in the debt ceiling.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

It’s likely to be more of the same as we start 2023, but there are potentially better times on the horizon.

Newsletter

Outlook 2023 Spotlight No. 2: Economic and Market Outlook

January 13, 2023

We share a summary of our economic and market outlook for the coming year.

Article

Outlook 2023: Finding Balance - Webinar Replay

January 11, 2023

Michael O’Keeffe, Stifel Chief Investment Officer, and Brian Gardner, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist, discussed our view on the paths for inflation, monetary policy, and Washington policy and what we expect for the economy and markets in 2023.   

Video

Potomac Perspective

January 11, 2023

Following the election of Representative Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, we provide a update on the year ahead. In our current base case, the prospects for a government shutdown in October are high.    

Article

Outlook 2023 Spotlight No. 1: A Brief Summary

January 6, 2023

Don’t have time to read the full Outlook? Check out the two-page Sight|Lines report where we summarize the articles and main takeaways from our Outlook 2023.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 5, 2023

After multiple rounds of voting on Tuesday and Wednesday, the House failed to elect a Speaker. This process could play out for several days. We look at some possible scenarios and potential implications for financial markets.

Article

Potomac Perspective

January 3, 2023

The New Year ushers in a new Congress, which could start in chaos as House Republicans struggle to elect a Speaker. This could lead to some market volatility if investors lose confidence in the government’s ability to conduct business. The chaotic start to 2023 also sets up the narrative for the rest of the year – gridlock.

Article

Favorite 15

January 3, 2023

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

2023 Outlook: Finding Balance

January 2023

Watch the video summary where Michael O'Keeffe, Stifel Chief Investment Officer, provides our view on the paths for inflation, monetary policy, Washington policy, the economy, and markets.

Video

Outlook 2023: Finding Balance

January 2023

We provide our view on the paths for inflation, monetary policy, Washington policy, the economy, and markets.

Article

December In Review

January 1, 2023

The S&P 500 ended the year on a down note, experiencing its largest decline since 2008.  The Federal Reserve acknowledged softer inflation but noted that "substantially more evidence" that inflation is cooling is needed. 

Article

2023 Outlook — The Inflation Clock Keeps Ticking: Stubbornly Elevated Prices Push Rates Higher for Longer With a Modest Recession

December 20, 2022

The unevenness in the data, not to mention the uncertainty in the outlook for the economy and policy, has left a number of questions unanswered as the new year approaches. As such, investors and consumers alike continue to wonder: Is the U.S. nearing a recession?

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

425: The cumulative amount of basis points the Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised rates in 2022, the most since 1980.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

December 20, 2022

The omnibus appropriations bill has been released. Regarding policy riders, the SECURE Act 2.0 was included in the bill, but the SAFE Banking Act and a tax extenders bill failed to make the cut. Odds favor the bill passing Congress despite some conservative opposition.

Article

Signs of Balance: Part 2

December 21, 2022

We continue to see a few signs of balance in December, important considerations as we develop our outlook for 2023.

Video

Shaping Our 2023 Outlook: Cooling consumer inflation and a Federal Reserve rate hike in line with expectations

December 16, 2022

We review the results of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy action and Summary of Economic Projections as well as the consumer price index (CPI) report for November and how they will influence our outlook for 2023.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 15, 2022

Key negotiators have agreed to a framework for an omnibus appropriations bill. The text won’t be ready for several days, but this note looks at what might be in the bill. Also, the note looks at possible replacements at Treasury if Secretary Janet Yellen leaves and what Senator Krysten Sinema’s decision to become an independent means to the 2023 agenda.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

The labor market has been resilient this year, keeping the economy out of a recession and allowing the Federal Reserve to aggressively tighten monetary policy. So what's keeping the jobs party going? Well, beneath the surface there may be a structural shift taking place in the workforce.

Newsletter

Hints of Weakness in Hiring Support a Smaller Hike; Strong Wages Suggest a Higher Level of Policy

December 13, 2022

The latest employment report indicates the U.S. labor market remains stubbornly tight. Of course, some metrics show the labor market may be less robust than headline figures suggest.

Article

Shaping Our 2023 Outlook: Getting Ready for the December Fed Meeting

December 9, 2022

We provide an update on topics that will likely influence the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 7, 2022

The National Defense Authorization Act text was released on Tuesday night, and the bill excludes the SAFE Banking Act and Senator Richard Durbin’s credit card bill. Supporters of both bills will try to add them to a year-end spending bill, but odds are against them.

Article

Getting Into the Zone: Who’s Taylor and Why Is He Setting Rates?

December 2, 2022

The latest flurry of Federal Reserve speak ahead of the final Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year highlights a growing divide among officials regarding the appropriate pathway for policy.

Article

Looking Forward to 2023: Insights as We Prepare Our 2023 Outlook

December 2, 2022

We share some insights from the work we are doing as we develop our 2023 Outlook.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

With railroad unions threatening a strike on December 9, Congress stepped in to head off a potential supply chain disaster. The Railway Labor Act grants Congress the authority to intervene in railroad disputes that threaten to disrupt the economy – something the legislature has done 18 times since 1960.

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

December 6, 2022

The note looks at the three likely scenarios – punting an omnibus bill to 2023, passing an omnibus bill before year-end, or passing a year-long continuing resolution.

Article

Potomac Perspective

December 7, 2022

Last week, a key Federal Reserve (Fed) official gave a speech on bank capital requirements. Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr did not offer details on what changes will be made to capital rules, but he offered some hints. This note reviews his comments and opines on how banks and investors should think about the process and the politics of bank capital regulations.

Article

Favorite 15

December 1, 2022

They key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides. 

Article

November In Review

December 1, 2022

U.S. equity markets rose during the volatile month. The Federal Reserve hiked rates by another 75 basis points, inflation data was below economist expectations, and the midterm elections resulted in a divided government.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

675 million pounds: The amount of turkey estimated to be eaten on Thanksgiving. That's roughly 42 million birds assuming they each weigh 16 pounds.

Newsletter

A Slower Pace of Still Rising Prices, Underscores Need for Additional Federal Reserve Action

November 21, 2022

The latest read on prices suggests the worst of the cost pressures may be behind us. Of course, with inflation still near a four-decade high, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to face a fierce challenge to reinstate price stability. For some Fed officials, the recent improvement in inflation is enough to signal the need for a more benign policy pathway. For other members, the battle has just begun with arguably minimal – albeit welcomed – movement in the right direction.

Article

Signs of Balance: Investment Strategy Brief

November 21, 2022

We’ve been talking about finding balance and the prospect of reduced market volatility. This month we review midterm results, improving inflation, and geopolitical progress, all signs of possible balance ahead.

Video

Potomac Perspective

November 30, 2022

This week’s note looks at the agenda for the lame duck session, including scenarios for a year-end spending bill and the National Defense Authorization Act. Legislation that could be added to either bill includes the SAFE Banking Act, SECURE Act 2.0, pay-go fixes, a credit card payments bill, disaster relief, and other items.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

High inflation and slowing economy. Check. Low presidential approval rating. Check. History favoring the minority party. Check. The conditions were right, but the "red wave" of Republicans sweeping control of Congress in the 2022 midterms never materialized. So what now?

Newsletter

Potomac Perspective

November 15, 2022

The GOP is likely to nominate Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-California) as the party’s nominee for House Speaker, but he will probably fail to gain today the 218 votes that will ultimately be needed to win the Speakership in January.

Article

Finding Some Balance Abroad: U.S. – China Relations and Ukraine War

November 18, 2022,

We provide a brief update on some areas of geopolitics that have risked moving in the wrong direction and creating imbalances here and abroad.

Article

Potomac Perspective

November 14, 2022

The ultimate outcome of the elections have yet to be called, but Republicans have a clearer path than Democrats to the House majority.  The situation is reversed in the Senate where Democrats have the inside track.

Article

Elections and Inflation: Uncertainty Persists Along the Road to Balance

November 11, 2022

We provide a brief update on finding balance through the rest of the year and into 2023. The control of Congress is not yet known, but a dividend government appears likely. October’s consumer price index (CPI) results provide some of the evidence the Federal Reserve is seeking for cooling inflation.

Article

Q4 Allocation Insights

Q4 2022

See how the Stifel CIO Office is positioning portfolios in the current volatile environment.

Article

2022 Midterm Election Part 2 Replay

November 9, 2022

In the second session in our two-part webinar series, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner recapped the election results and discussed what they mean for future legislation and other areas of focus in DC.

Video

Potomac Perspective

November 9, 2022

As of this writing, the final outcome of the 2022 midterm elections is still not known, but the national results have been shocking as a predicted red wave failed to materialize.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates another 0.75% to a target range of 3.75%-4% as the fight with inflation continues. The main question is "Are we there yet?" It seems not. Chair Jerome Powell said that it's too early to think about pausing.

Newsletter

Acknowledging Lag Effect, the Fed Indicates More Work to be Done and Ultimately Higher Rates

November 7, 2021

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) opted to raise rates an additional 75 basis points (bps) last week. The November statement focused on the lag in which policy impacts the real economy, suggesting a possible “pivot” to smaller-sized rate hikes may soon be deemed appropriate, even as early as next month.

Article

Favorite 15

November 4, 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

The Federal Reserve Hikes 0.75% Again: The Timing of a Policy Shift Remains Elusive

November 4, 2022

We share the results of the November Fed meeting, how the third quarter GDP report played a role, and what these mean for investors trying to find balance on the topics of inflation and recession.

Article

Potomac Perspective

November 4, 2022

A host of factors clearly signal a Republican takeover of the House. Although the battle for the Senate is closer, Republican candidates in key races have momentum and the GOP is well positioned to win the majority in the Senate. This note takes a final pre-election look at what to expect the election outcome(s) could mean for policy and markets.

Article

Inflation, Inflation, Inflation… And Recession

November 2, 2022

With inflation at a four-decade high, an economy that is treading water, and the Fed assessing the size of its next rate hike, are we in a recession today?

Article

October in Review

November 4, 2022

U.S. equites rose during the month, having one of the best Octobers on record despite higher prices and some signs of a slowing economy.

Article

Stifel Bits

A breezy, lighthearted approach to our insights

4.5%: The percent of Americans households without a bank account in 2021 as reported by the FDIC, a record low since the survey started in 2009.

Newsletter

Investors Seek Relief: Finding Balance

October 28, 2022

We may be finding balance in the coming months in issues that have challenged markets this year.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 26, 2022

Republican prospects continue to improve, as elections are a week away. Numerous polls indicate voters are prioritizing issues that play to republican strengths, and deemphasize issues that could benefit Democrats.

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives: Q4 2022

October 27, 2022

We review the prior quarter’s capital market returns and economic developments in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

Finding Balance

Stubbornly Elevated Prices Likely to Further Federal Reserve Action

October 24, 2022

With inflation broadly and stubbornly elevated, and core prices pushing to a fresh cycle peak in September, the Federal Reserve has highlighted an ongoing and increased willingness to raise rates beyond earlier forecasts.

Article

Finding Balance: The 2022 Midterms Approach

October 21, 2022

We summarize some of the key learnings from our recent webinar with Brian Gardner, Stifel’s Chief Washington Policy Strategist, on the upcoming midterm elections.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 21, 2022

A federal appeals court ruled that the funding mechanism for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is unconstitutional. If upheld, the decision could have implications for the consumer financial sector, especially nonbanks, as it would make congressional oversight of the CFPB easier.

Article

Client Webinar Series Part 1 Replay

October 18, 2022

Watch Stifel’s Chief Washington Strategist, Brian Gardner, and Chief Investment Officer, Michael O’Keeffe, discuss the potential outcomes of the upcoming midterm elections.

Video

Weakness in Housing Potentially Mitigated by Lingering Undersupply

October 17, 2022

Higher mortgage rates and elevated costs along with negative real income growth have dampened purchasing activity some. However, a multiyear deficit in the housing supply and elevated demand are keeping the cost of homeownership historically elevated.

Article

Potomac Perspective

October 14, 2022

The Consumer Price Index report could create headwinds for Democrats and tailwinds for Republicans heading into next month’s elections. We look into the report, discuss how midterm elections may impact proposals from businesses to increase legal immigration, and examine the implications of a lame duck session of Congress.

Article

September Jobs Report Keeps Federal Reserve on Pace for 75 bps Come November

October 7, 2022

This week, we take a closer look at the state of the U.S. labor market, and what it means for the Fed’s November policy decision.

Video

A Hawkish Federal Reserve Means Lower Earnings Growth

October 7, 2022

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy is intended to slow the economy, dampen demand, and cool inflation. We assess the related weakening earnings growth and the impact on stock market performance.

Article

Favorite 15

October 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

Overseas Volatility Leaves Fed on Aggressive Pathway with Eyes Wide Open

October 4, 2022

Elevated prices amid slowing growth is currently a shared condition globally. While central banks have moved to higher rate policies, the reactions from fiscal policy leaders have varied from country to country.

Article

September in Review

October 2022

U.S. equites fell during the month as inflation came in higher than expected and the Fed raised the funds rate by 75 basis points for the third consecutive meeting.

Article

The Federal Reserve’s Dual Mandate is Askew: When Can the Fed Ease?

September 30, 2022

We present how the Federal Reserve can ease monetary policy, which would likely lower interest rates and trigger a “relief rally” in equities.

Article

Potomac Perspective

September 27, 2022 

Congress is tying up some loose ends as it prepares to pass a temporary spending bill that will keep the government open into December. A government shutdown is highly unlikely.

Article

When can the Fed shift policy?

September 27, 2022

The Fed’s aggressive policy has driven markets lower. This month we examine what the Fed wants to see before it shifts monetary policy.

Video

An Overly Optimistic Outlook for Growth and Inflation as the Fed Continues to Hike

September 26, 2022

Is the Fed overstating the need for further rate hikes to quell inflation, or is it underestimating the hardship additional increases will have?

Article

Federal Open Market Committee Update: Higher Rates for Longer

September 23, 2022

We review the results of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, some implications for future inflation, and market reaction.

Article

No Cooling Trend For Inflation

September 16, 2022

We share an update on inflation and other key data points and how they may be influencing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision next week.

Article

A Tale of Two Inflation Pictures

September 19, 2022

Economists typically need two hands when weighing the significance of contrasting data, and this week’s inflation reports are no exception.

Article

Potomac Perspective

September 19, 2022

For the next few weeks, the main debate in Washington is whether an energy permitting deal can be added to the spending bill. It’s possible, but there are reasons to be skeptical.

Brochure

Potomac Perspective

September 13, 2022

Recently, it has seemed that the New York Yankees and congressional Republicans were on similar paths – insurmountable leads that have dwindled. We look at some potential policy ramifications following the election and at the political outlook for November.

Article

Q3 Allocation Insights

Q3 2022

See how the Stifel CIO Office is positioning portfolios in the current volatile environment.  

Article

Powell Rhetoric Overshadows Complexities to Inflation Fight

September 13, 2022

Elevated inflation will challenge the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools.

Article

Navigating the Rest of 2022: Get Ready for More Volatility

September 9, 2022

We discuss some of our areas of focus as we navigate the remainder of 2022, including what history teaches us about volatility patterns throughout the year.

Article

Potomac Perspective

September 9, 2022

As Congress returns from its summer break, it must pass a spending bill before the end of September which also might (or might not) raise the debt ceiling and streamline the process for obtaining permits for energy projects.

Article

Favorite 15

September, 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

Solid Job Growth and Stagnant Wages in August Could Soften Outlook for the Federal Reserve

September 5, 2022

We take a closer look at the state of the U.S. labor market, and what it means for the Fed’s upcoming policy decision.

Video

August in Review

September, 2022

U.S. equites fell during the month on comments from Federal Reserve officials and mixed economic data, while second-quarter earnings season came to a close.

Article

More U.S. - China Tensions: What might happen with Taiwan?

August 26, 2022

We focus on increasing U.S.-China tensions and address the question: What might happen with Taiwan.

Article

Lower Gasoline Prices Lifted Spending Less than Expected

August 23, 2022

Despite relief at the pump, rising costs elsewhere continue to keep spending modest. Consumers are still shopping, but the broad-based increase in inflation has the average American adjusting their spending behaviors, buying fewer and less expensive goods.

Article

Recession, in Housing?

August 29, 2022

Home sales are sluggish, yet prices are extremely elevated. While some measures of housing activity – and the broader economy – are signaling a significant downturn, and even the possibility of a recession, others indicate there are still opportunities in the market.

Article

A Slower Pace of Still-Elevated Price Pressures Complicates Outlook for Policy

August 15, 2022

While energy costs cooled somewhat in July, dragging down the headline read, other price categories continued a relentless climb higher, complicating the outlook for costs and policy.

Article

Potomac Perspective

August 19, 2022

With the Inflation Reduction Act now signed into law, we look into three items that may be considered in the bill’s wake: electric vehicle content rules, a cap on insulin prices, and a possible side energy deal.

Article

Exploring the Data: Inflation May Be Cooling

August 12, 2022

We unpack the recent inflation data to better understand inflation today and where it might be headed from here.

Article

Strong Job Growth in July Has Investors Pricing in a More Hawkish Rate Path

August 5, 2022

We take a closer look at the state of the U.S. labor market, the Fed's upcoming policy decision, and the outlook for the recovery.

Video

Exploring the Data: Supply Chain Pressures May Be Easing

August 5, 2022

We take a deep dive into the data to understand where we are on the supply side of the inflation equation, with a particular focus on signals of whether or not supply chain pressures are easing.

Article

Favorite 15

August, 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

Potomac Perspective

August 4, 2022

The Senate is moving ahead on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, some Democrats are pushing to change the bill. In the end, their efforts will probably have only limited success.

Article

Federal Reserve to Potentially Soften Pathway as Recession Lurks

August 1, 2022

With inflation still too high and the economy beginning to show signs of waning momentum, what is the future pathway for Fed policy?

Article

Federal Reserve Hikes Rates 75 Basis Points in July as Expected

August 1, 2022

We discuss the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike, the outlook for future rate hikes, and other key economic developments.

Video

July in Review

August, 2022

The S&P 500 rose in July as second quarter earnings season was in full swing, and, as expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates 75 basis points for the second month in a row.

Article

Are we in a recession?

July 29, 2022

We touch briefly on second quarter earnings, report on the Federal Reserve’s July policy action, share some details on second quarter GDP, and offer a view on volatility and markets looking forward.

Article

Keeping Composure Despite Challenges: Investment Strategy Brief

July 25, 2022

2022 has been a tough year for investors. As we pass midyear, we take a look back at what happened and why, and we then share reasons investors should keep composure despite these challenges and be more optimistic looking forward.

Video

Potomac Perspective

July 29, 2022

Senator Manchin surprised Washington by announcing a deal on a reconciliation bill that is broader than expected. The CHIPS Act was passed in the House and is now headed to President Biden’s desk for his signature.

Article

Oil Prices Rise After President Biden Visits the Middle East

July 25, 2022

We take a closer look at energy markets and other key economic developments.

Video

A slowdown without a technical recession?

July 25, 2022

Amid a slowdown in production and wild volatility in financial sectors, many market participants fear a recession is lurking around the corner or worse, is already upon us.

Article

Potomac Perspective

July 21, 2022

A scaled down USICA/CHIPS Act is moving forward in the Senate but still faces a few hurdles. Odds are in the bill’s favor, but it’s no slam dunk that the bill will be signed into law.

Article

Second Half 2022 and Beyond: Part 2: Reasons for a Positive Outlook

July 22, 2022

We share our views on the slowing economy, recession, earnings, and the reasons to have a positive outlook going forward.  

Article

Weekly Market Perspectives

July 18, 2022

Hotter-than-expected inflation and earnings reports from some financial companies led to a risk-off mood leading markets to end the week down.

Article

Dollar Strength Could Aid in Inflation Battle but Limit Export Growth

July 18, 2022

As the Federal Reserve continues along a more aggressive pathway to stem inflation, a rapidly appreciating U.S. dollar is also causing complications in international currency markets.

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives: Q3 2022

July 2022

We review the prior quarter’s capital market returns and economic developments in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes. 

Article

Potomac Perspective

July 14, 2022

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down an EPA rule related to coal, showing its willingness to rein in federal agencies, which could impact every economic sector. We also explore the possibility of a Build Back Better 2.0 and a China competition bill.

Article

Second Half 2022 and Beyond: Part 1: How did we get here?

July 15, 2022

As we pass midyear, we believe it helpful to look back and objectively assess how these balancing acts have played out so far, before we look forward to the remainder of the year and beyond. We set the stage for this look forward to the second half of 2022 and beyond by first sharing Part 1: How did we get here?

Article

Still Solid Job Growth in June Keeps Fed on Aggressive Rate Path

July 11, 2022

We take a closer look at the state of the U.S. labor market, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, and the outlook for the recovery.

Video

Long-term Investor? Time in Instead of Timing the Market

July 1, 2022

We review the idea that an investor is much more likely to be better off over the long term when being focused on time in rather than timing the market.

Article

Market Rates Are Falling Some: Positive relief or trouble ahead?

July 8, 2022

We unpack the relationship between market rates and anticipated Federal Reserve action in the first half of 2022, review forecasts for the next 18 months, and then answer the question: Is this positive relief, or is there trouble ahead?

Article

June in Review

July 2022

Volatility remained high in June as the S&P 500 entered a bear market. The Federal Reserve surprised markets with a 75-basis-point rate hike as consumer confidence fell.

Article

Potomac Perspective

June 30, 2022

With just over four months until midterm elections, learn about key races in the House and Senate as November approaches.

Article

Supply-Side Price Pressures to Determine Depth and Duration of Downturn

June 24, 2022

What does the latest Fed policy decision mean for the economy? Will the economy fall into recession? If so, how deep and how long will the contraction be?

Article

Learnings From Economic Theory: Inflation Has Gone Vertical!

June 24, 2022

We review the concept of supply-demand in economic theory, how some topics we’ve been talking about – higher demand and supply constraints – are causing inflation to go vertical, and what that might mean for future inflation.

Article

Potomac Perspective

June 23, 2022

Learn more about the proposed gas tax holiday and part of the Secure Act 2.0, which addresses retirement savings and required minimum distributions.

Article

Raising Rates 75 bps

June 17, 2022

We take a closer look at the June Federal Open Market Committee rate decision, the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s projections for growth and inflation, and the questions for the economy and the outlook the Committee left unanswered.

Video

Storms or clear skies ahead?

June 17, 2022

We discuss drivers of market performance, reviewing a recent inflation report, learnings from the Fed’s June meeting, and our views going forward.

Video

Market Volatility: More storms, clear skies, or both?

June 17, 2022

This environment, more than others, is uncertain. In such a setting, we find it helpful to define and evaluate scenarios based on what might happen, how likely it is to happen, and the corresponding economic and market implications.

Article

Connecting the Dots: Drivers of Market Performance

June 10, 2022

We take a step back to discuss how a variety of topics are connected and ultimately drive economic and market performance.

Article

Policy Officials Acknowledge Inflation Without a Plan to Address Higher Costs

June 13, 2022

We takes a closer look at the latest inflation reading and other key economic developments.

Video

Favorite 15

June 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

Potomac Perspective

June 10, 2022

We discuss ongoing debates in Congress over economic policies including Build Back Better, cryptocurrency regulation, and bank merger review guidelines.

Article

Payroll Momentum Wanes in May

June 3, 2022

Stifel’s Chief Economist, Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., takes a closer look at the U.S. labor market, the Fed’s upcoming policy decision, and the outlook for the recovery.

Video

May in Review

June 2022

There was significant volatility in May, but markets ended the month broadly unchanged. Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s path for monetary policy remain in focus for investors.

Article

The Consumer Remains Strong … for Now …

June 3, 2022

Our clients are wondering whether or not the U.S. is headed for a recession. One of the main inputs into our outlook is the consumer.

Article

Potomac Perspective

June 2, 2022

Stifel’s Chief Washington Policy Strategist, Brian Gardner, discusses ongoing debates in Congress over economic policies and the upcoming midterm elections.

Article

Q2 Allocation Insights

Q2 2022

See how the Stifel CIO Office is positioning portfolios in the current volatile environment.

Article

Growth? Inflation? Geopoltics? Making Sense of the Current Environment

May 20, 2022

We share some insights from our webinar with Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel’s Chief Economist, and Brian Gardner, Stifel’s Chief Washington Policy Strategist, where we discussed this unusual economic, political, and market environment.

Article

Can we achieve a “soft landing?

May 18, 2022

We discuss the drivers of market volatility and the data points investors are monitoring for signs of a “soft landing” as the Federal Reserve continues with its rate hikes.

Video

A Positive “Season” so far: Where are earnings headed?

May 12, 2022

We review the results and learnings of the almost complete first-quarter 2022 earnings season and what they signal for equity market returns going forward.

Article

Replay: Increased Volatility in 2022

May 19, 2022

We discussed how higher inflation, shifting Federal Reserve policy, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the upcoming midterm elections are fueling increased volatility in 2022 and the related market and investment implications.

Video

What’s driving volatility?

April 29, 2022

We review the uncertainties facing investors and offer our reasons for optimism as the year progresses.

Article

What's the Fed's path to a soft landing?

May 6, 2022

We review inflation, the first estimate of U.S. first-quarter 2022 GDP, and the learnings from the Federal Reserve’s May 2022 meeting.

Article

Quarterly Market Perspectives: Q2 2022

Q2 2022

The economic outlook grew even more uncertain in the first quarter. We discuss the war in Ukraine, inflation, monetary policy, and company earnings in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

Article

Favorite 15

May 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides. 

Article

April in Review

May 2022

Markets had their worst month since the start of the pandemic. Investors continue to wrestle with a number of uncertainties that are impacting sentiment.

Article

Has inflation peaked?

April 2022

This month we summarize both sides of the inflation debate and offer our views on inflation, the war in Ukraine, and the related economic and market impacts.

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Two Sides to the Inflation Debate: Are we moving past the peak?

April 21, 2022

Some economists believe inflation has peaked, others do not. Our view remains that inflation has peaked and will start to fall.

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Replay: Investing During Volatile Times

April 13, 2022

Sneha Jose, Stifel’s Director of Behavioral Finance, discussed the recent market volatility and how behavioral finance can help you navigate these turbulent times.

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The “60/40” Portfolio Breaks Down: What should investors do?

April 8, 2022

Stocks and bonds both posted negative returns in the first quarter. Some might ask is the traditional 60/40 portfolio “dead?”  We think not.

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Will 200 bps of tightening be enough to cool inflation?

April 1 2022

Pandemic-driven supply/demand imbalances and the Ukraine war are putting upward pressure on prices. Investors are anticipating another 200 bps of tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Will this be enough to cool inflation?

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Favorite 15

April 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

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March in Review

April 2022

U.S. equity markets were volatile but rose following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The yield curve flattened, and commodity prices moved higher.

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Market Crisis…or Resilience?

March 25, 2022

We check in on U.S. equity market performance since the start of the war, compare that to some past geopolitical events, and briefly discuss the implications for other asset classes.

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Balancing Acts All Around: Ukraine and Beyond

March 18, 2022

We revisit the concept of balancing acts from our outlook and how it applies to the issues we face in this historic first quarter of 2022.

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What are the implications from the war in Ukraine?

March 16, 2022

Will the Russia-Ukraine war and higher oil prices threaten the U.S. economic expansion? What is the Federal Reserve’s outlook for the year and how does it plan to cool inflation?

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Crude Awakening: Higher Oil Prices vs. a Resilient Consumer

March 11, 2022

We discuss higher energy prices and how they might, or might not, impact consumer behavior and increase the risk of a recession.

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Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Some Questions and Answers

March 4, 2022

We answer some frequently asked questions submitted during our recent webinar and by clients over the last week.

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Favorite 15

March 2022

The Key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

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February In Review

March 2022

U.S. equity markets fell during the month as geopolitical tensions rose, culminating in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Investors digested possible impacts to inflation, the economy, and Federal Reserve policy.

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Replay: Russia-Ukraine Crisis

February 28, 2022

Listen to Chief Investment Officer Michael O’Keeffe, Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner, and Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D. discuss what the Russia-Ukraine crisis means for the world economy and markets.

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Ukraine and the Impact to the Global Economy

February 25, 2022

We share some thoughts and initial analysis of the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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An Overview of Our Publications

February 18, 2022

A summary of all of the publications made available by the Stifel CIO Office.

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Investment Strategy Brief: Making Sense of the Market Volatility

February 14, 2022

We share our thoughts on the increased market volatility and our still positive outlook for the year.

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The Evolution of Federal Reserve Policy

February 11, 2022

Jobs have recovered, inflation is elevated, and our Federal Reserve has pivoted to a hawkish policy stance.

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Will midterms impact equity returns?

February 4, 2022

A preview of what to expect as the midterm allocations approach later in the year.

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Favorite 15

February 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

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January in Review

February 2022

Market volatility increased as the S&P 500 hovered near correction territory during the month while tensions at the Ukraine border rose.  

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Quarterly Market Perspectives: Q1 2022

January 28, 2022

A review of the prior quarter's capital market returns and economic developments in the context of our outlook and asset allocation themes.

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The S&P 500 is near a correction. Why, and where do we go from here?

January 28, 2022

With inflation elevated, the Fed has quickly shifted to a much more hawkish stance. We remain positive on stocks for 2022. But stay ready, we also expect volatility to remain elevated.

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Investment Strategy Brief Special Edition: 2022 Outlook

January, 2022

A summary of our 2022 outlook and an update of the macroeconomic environment amid higher inflation and increased volatility. 

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What are the geopolitical risks we're monitoring?

January 21, 2022

The start of a new cold war, U.S.-China competition, D.C. gridlock, and European fragmentation are top of mind.

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Imagining the Post-Pandemic World

January 14, 2022

The pandemic has changed our lives and how we do business. Some of these changes were temporary, but other changes appear more permanent.

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Webinar Replay: 2022 Outlook

January 11, 2022

How many times is the Fed expected to raise rates? Who will control the Senate after the midterm elections? How should portfolios be positioned as a result?

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What's ahead for equity markets?

January 7, 2022

We forecast the S&P 500 crossing 5,000 to end the year. Read more on how it can get there and the potential risks.  

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2022 Outlook: Balancing Acts

January 5, 2022

We anticipate continued economic growth and higher equity markets, but we’ll see balancing acts all around, leading to a wider range of possible outcomes.

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Favorite 15

January 2022

The key investing topics impacting markets and portfolios in just 15 slides.

Article

Consumer Spending Props Up Growth for Now, but Weakness Lies Ahead

January 30, 2023

In the second half of last year, consumers were able to maintain and, in some cases, increase spending as they were still flush with pandemic savings and fiscal support. Now, as savings dwindle, the weight of rising prices is undermining real wage growth.

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Markets Are Poised for Rotation: What To Do, and Not To Do

July 11, 2024

We discuss the potential for both a bond market and stock market rotation, and why some actions
may be warranted while other actions may not.

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Economic Insight LIVE

July 2024

View the replay webinar of Dr. Lindsey Piegza’s quarterly series, where she discussed the current environment and her economic outlook for 2024

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Outlook 2024 | Embracing Change

Entering 2024, we observe several enduring changes in the post-pandemic world that may well require a recalibration of market expectations. In this month’s Investment Strategy Brief, we look back at 2023 and review our outlook for the year on inflation, monetary policy, the economy, and markets.

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