Outlook 2023

We’re anticipating modestly positive calendar year returns for stocks in 2023, but with continued volatility and market weakness in the near term. A soft landing is still possible and more likely if the Federal Reserve (Fed) hikes rates by less than what Fed officials are currently forecasting. We provide our view on the paths for inflation, monetary policy, the economy, and markets.

Balancing Acts

2022 Year in Review

We began 2022 with an outlook focused on Balancing Acts reflecting a wider range of potential outcomes. These proved challenging as imbalances triggered by the war in Ukraine, kept inflation elevated, and led to an aggressively hawkish Fed policy.

U.S. Capitol building with one side painted blue and the other side painted red and a crack down the middle.

Washington Policy and Political Outlook

Divided government returns to Washington in 2023 as Republicans will have the majority in the House, while Democrats will retain the majority in the Senate. A split Congress typically complicates governing, and the situation in 2023 will be exceptionally complicated given the narrow majorities in both the House and the Senate. Legislation will likely be limited to a handful of “must-do” bills, and even then it will be difficult to reach compromises to pass critical bills. Regulatory action is likely where most policy changes will be enacted.

World map made out of blocks of various heights

Geopolitical Risk Dashboard: Tensions Rising

Geopolitical risks are rising and continue to influence the global economy and financial markets. The Stifel Geopolitical Dashboard identifies and assesses the likelihood and potential market impact of these geopolitical risks and possible events.

statue of a bear with a bull in the background

Five Tips To Navigate a Bear Market

When stocks enter a bear market, dropping more than 20% from their recent peak, losses may feel like they’ll never end. Some investors even panic and make irrational investment decisions that may jeopardize long-term goals and objectives. Here are five tips to help you navigate a bear market.