Geopolitical Dashboard

Event Liklihood Market
U.S.-China Competition  10 7 Competition for global leadership will impact markets; tech will continue to play an important role. The U.S. Department of Defense sees China as the “most consequential strategic competitor.”
The New Cold War 7 The Russia-Ukraine war is solidifying alliances among competing geopolitical blocs. U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia competition for influence are increasingly hostile.  
Emerging Market (EM) Political Uncertainty 7 Many EM countries are facing COVID-related challenges, including higher food and energy prices.  These can lead to increased inequality, political interference, and continued rise of populist ideas.  
Cyberattacks 7 As society becomes more digitized, the world is more prone to cyberattacks.  The risk of cyber warfare is increasing significantly. 
Middle Eastern Tensions 7 Tensions in the region remain heightened.  Iran nuclear talks are at a standstill, and the country is undermining stability by continuing to support terrorist groups and proxies.
Washington D.C. Gridlock 6 A divided Congress likely means limited prospects for significant legislation.  The degree of political uncertainty may not be fully priced into markets. 
Climate Change Stalemate 6 A U.N. climate agreement was reached where developed countries would pay for climate damage costs of developing nations.  Still, major hurdles remain.  
Major Terror Attacks  6 4 Unpredictable terrorist attacks may create disruption.  The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has amplified the risk of a resurgent terrorist threat.
South China Sea Military Conflict 5 7 China maintains a strong air and naval presence in the area, even as the U.S. upgrades airfields and other strategic infrastructure.  There is potential for a military clash.
European Fragmentation 5 6 The energy crisis and resulting economic damage from the Ukraine war may test European solidarity. France and Germany are increasingly at odds on several key issues. 
North Korea Conflict 5 3 North Korea continues to improve and expand its nuclear missile capabilities.  In November, it test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a range sufficient to reach the U.S. mainland.
Structurally Higher Inflation 4 8 The effects of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, U.S.-China competition, and climate change could lead to a prolonged period of structurally higher inflation.
Russia-West Conflict  4 8 Russia has threatened retaliation in response to Western military support of Ukraine. Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO, a potential doubling of the Russia-NATO land border.